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Discussion in 'Tottenham Hotspur' started by alexwooty, 6 Mar 2017.
Funny given for including Woolwich in the CL odds
Any updates available alexwooty ?
I'll take a look tomorrow
Good shit Alex. I only just saw this thread now, but you think similar to me.
As a professional gambler for 15 years I believe your initial post explains perfectly how to interpret probabilities from betfair, and the reasons behind it.
Are you in the industry yourself?
The match against the scum last weekend was interesting.
Early in the week, it was dead level pretty much who would win on the markets.
Then when lineups were announced, we went to decent favourites.
Then after 5 minutes of play, still at 0-0, they were favourites.
Then even at half time when we was winning 2-1. They were predicted way more likely to score next.
What’s encouraging me right now is that even though we are currently not in top 4, we are indicated to have 67% chance of finishing top4, and the gooners only 43%. Confirming that we are a stronger team, but I always believed that anyway.
I'm not in the industry, but I did spend some time figuring out how/if it was possible to make a few quid out of bookies. I ended up exploiting the new account sign-up offers that all the online bookies offer, but I ran out of offers after a while. I'd effectively back a bet with a bookie and lay the same bet on Betfair (or another exchange with lower commission) in order to qualify for a free bet without risking any of my money (would maybe lose 1-2% of stake at most). Then I'd do a similar thing with the free bet - I'd use it with the bookie and then lay the same bet to an appropriate amount on an exchange to guarantee myself a risk-free win. I could generally get 60-70% of the free bet stake as a guaranteed profit if I remember rightly.
Here we go then Rocket .
One interesting anomaly is that ẁe're seen as less likely than Chelsea to finish in the top 4, but more likely than them to win the league! Also Kane is still seen as the favourite to win the Golden Boot, despite being 2 goals behind Aubameyang at the moment.
Fantastic work again. Thanks for the effort.
Top 4 chances after last night's results:
Spurs 81.3%, from 67.8%
Chelsea 65.2%, from 73.3%
Woolwich 49.2%, from 43.3%
Wow big changes after just one game. The hit Chelsea took yesterday with a game Vs Man City on the horizon is huge. Thanks for the update
So Woolwich went up after dropping points to a mid table team and slipping a place in the table. Betting people are strange folk sometimes.
Mostly to do with Chelsea losing I imagine. And the fact that away to United (irregardless of their current form) would always be a tough fixture, so the markets weren't 'expecting' them to win there
Interesting that we're less likely now to win the CL than we were when the group stage draw was made.
Top 4 however is looking nice!
Any chance of an update alexwooty 2 weeks ago I got 40_1on spurs winning the title see were down to 9-1
Only 8-1 on paddy power. Worth a punt. I'm in
Time for another update. Believe it or not, we're seen as more likely to win the league now than we were in mid-December. Top 4 looking very good indeed, and golden boot chances improved for Kane.
Probably the best thread I could find for this. Football Web Pages & their statistics based on the season so far have us achieving our records points total in Premier League era:
Premier League table PREDICTED: Man Utd, Man City look away now - Liverpool CHAMPIONS
Hopefully the injuries don't impact this but it's not bad viewing for a team apparently going backwards. They do have us down for drawing 1 game away though
We don’t do draws can’t be taken seriously
FiveThirtyEight now have us at a 94% probability for finishing in the top 4 after this afternoon's results.
And only a 2% chance of winning the league.
Premier League Predictions
Not exactly scientific though is it...... On Wednesday morning they predicted Liverpool will win every remaining game to get 105 points..........
5 hrs later Liverpool draw and their prediction is proven wrong at the earliest opportunity.......
Besides..... Liverpool aren't going to win out the last 14 matches surely.