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Discussion in 'Tottenham Hotspur' started by alexwooty, 6 Mar 2017.
Funny given for including Woolwich in the CL odds
Any updates available alexwooty ?
I'll take a look tomorrow
Good shit Alex. I only just saw this thread now, but you think similar to me.
As a professional gambler for 15 years I believe your initial post explains perfectly how to interpret probabilities from betfair, and the reasons behind it.
Are you in the industry yourself?
The match against the scum last weekend was interesting.
Early in the week, it was dead level pretty much who would win on the markets.
Then when lineups were announced, we went to decent favourites.
Then after 5 minutes of play, still at 0-0, they were favourites.
Then even at half time when we was winning 2-1. They were predicted way more likely to score next.
What’s encouraging me right now is that even though we are currently not in top 4, we are indicated to have 67% chance of finishing top4, and the gooners only 43%. Confirming that we are a stronger team, but I always believed that anyway.
I'm not in the industry, but I did spend some time figuring out how/if it was possible to make a few quid out of bookies. I ended up exploiting the new account sign-up offers that all the online bookies offer, but I ran out of offers after a while. I'd effectively back a bet with a bookie and lay the same bet on Betfair (or another exchange with lower commission) in order to qualify for a free bet without risking any of my money (would maybe lose 1-2% of stake at most). Then I'd do a similar thing with the free bet - I'd use it with the bookie and then lay the same bet to an appropriate amount on an exchange to guarantee myself a risk-free win. I could generally get 60-70% of the free bet stake as a guaranteed profit if I remember rightly.
Here we go then Rocket .
One interesting anomaly is that ẁe're seen as less likely than Chelsea to finish in the top 4, but more likely than them to win the league! Also Kane is still seen as the favourite to win the Golden Boot, despite being 2 goals behind Aubameyang at the moment.
Fantastic work again. Thanks for the effort.
Top 4 chances after last night's results:
Spurs 81.3%, from 67.8%
Chelsea 65.2%, from 73.3%
Woolwich 49.2%, from 43.3%
Wow big changes after just one game. The hit Chelsea took yesterday with a game Vs Man City on the horizon is huge. Thanks for the update
So Woolwich went up after dropping points to a mid table team and slipping a place in the table. Betting people are strange folk sometimes.
Mostly to do with Chelsea losing I imagine. And the fact that away to United (irregardless of their current form) would always be a tough fixture, so the markets weren't 'expecting' them to win there