As we get into the latter stages of the season, I always find it interesting to look at the odds, and the % chances they imply, of various outcomes happening related to Spurs. Mostly to manage my own expectations, hopes and dreams. I figured I might as well share this in case anyone's interested.
Spoiler on where these come from and the methodology if you care:
So here are some of the interesting % chances, as they stand on the morning of Monday 6th March...
Title Winners: Chelsea 83.0%, Man City 10.1%, Spurs 4.7%, Liverpool 0.95%, Woolwich 0.61%, Man United 0.57%.
Top 2 Finish: Chelsea 94.4%, Man City 44.5%, Spurs 32.2%, Liverpool 9.8%, Man United 9.3%, Woolwich 6.9%.
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Man City 87.0%, Spurs 81.0%, Liverpool 57.5%, Woolwich 36.9%, Man United 33.8%.
Top Goalscorer: Kane 47.0%, Lukaku 17.2%, Costa 11.8%, Sanchez 8.7%, Aguero 5.6%, Ibrahimovic 4.3%.
FA Cup Winners: Man City 23.0%, Spurs 21.5%, Chelsea 21.5%, Woolwich 21.1%, Man United 10.5%, Middlesbrough 2.1%, Millwall 0.41%, Lincoln 0.31%
Let me know if you appreciate this and would like to see it updated semi-regularly as the season goes on. If not then I'll just assume that nobody else is as weird as me.
Spoiler on where these come from and the methodology if you care:
I use Betfair's Exchange markets to generate the percentages. I take 1 divided by an outcome's 'back' price, 1 divided by an outcomes 'lay' price, and average the two results. This is, in my opinion, the best way to figure out a 'true' % chance of something happening, given that the prices on the Betfair Exchange are effectively set by a free market of thousands of professional punters, analysts and traders, using all the insight, stats, models, judgement and intuition there is out there. Similarly to how company's stock prices are set on stock exchanges. Betfair themselves aren't involved at all in setting the prices - they simply provide a platform for a market, allow their users to offer and to take up bets at whatever prices they want, and skim off a bit of commission on people's winnings. Therefore this is is a better method than looking at conventional bookie's odds, as those are a bit more subjectively determined and also have the bookie's profit margin built into them.
Don't expect everything to add up nicely to 100%, due to rounding, the averaging involved in the method and the fact that I'm not gonna list every single possibility. Some of the outcomes don't have much liquidity available on them which can make the odds and therefore the % chances a bit approximate.
Don't expect everything to add up nicely to 100%, due to rounding, the averaging involved in the method and the fact that I'm not gonna list every single possibility. Some of the outcomes don't have much liquidity available on them which can make the odds and therefore the % chances a bit approximate.
So here are some of the interesting % chances, as they stand on the morning of Monday 6th March...
Title Winners: Chelsea 83.0%, Man City 10.1%, Spurs 4.7%, Liverpool 0.95%, Woolwich 0.61%, Man United 0.57%.
Top 2 Finish: Chelsea 94.4%, Man City 44.5%, Spurs 32.2%, Liverpool 9.8%, Man United 9.3%, Woolwich 6.9%.
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Man City 87.0%, Spurs 81.0%, Liverpool 57.5%, Woolwich 36.9%, Man United 33.8%.
Top Goalscorer: Kane 47.0%, Lukaku 17.2%, Costa 11.8%, Sanchez 8.7%, Aguero 5.6%, Ibrahimovic 4.3%.
FA Cup Winners: Man City 23.0%, Spurs 21.5%, Chelsea 21.5%, Woolwich 21.1%, Man United 10.5%, Middlesbrough 2.1%, Millwall 0.41%, Lincoln 0.31%
Let me know if you appreciate this and would like to see it updated semi-regularly as the season goes on. If not then I'll just assume that nobody else is as weird as me.
:avbfacepalm::defoe:
