Spurs Odds and Percentages Thread

  • There is only one thing weirder than posting on internet forums... lurking on internet forums!
    Registration only takes a minute and removes most of the adverts. You're here now, you might as well...

    Get involved!

As we get into the latter stages of the season, I always find it interesting to look at the odds, and the % chances they imply, of various outcomes happening related to Spurs. Mostly to manage my own expectations, hopes and dreams. I figured I might as well share this in case anyone's interested.

Spoiler on where these come from and the methodology if you care:
I use Betfair's Exchange markets to generate the percentages. I take 1 divided by an outcome's 'back' price, 1 divided by an outcomes 'lay' price, and average the two results. This is, in my opinion, the best way to figure out a 'true' % chance of something happening, given that the prices on the Betfair Exchange are effectively set by a free market of thousands of professional punters, analysts and traders, using all the insight, stats, models, judgement and intuition there is out there. Similarly to how company's stock prices are set on stock exchanges. Betfair themselves aren't involved at all in setting the prices - they simply provide a platform for a market, allow their users to offer and to take up bets at whatever prices they want, and skim off a bit of commission on people's winnings. Therefore this is is a better method than looking at conventional bookie's odds, as those are a bit more subjectively determined and also have the bookie's profit margin built into them.

Don't expect everything to add up nicely to 100%, due to rounding, the averaging involved in the method and the fact that I'm not gonna list every single possibility. Some of the outcomes don't have much liquidity available on them which can make the odds and therefore the % chances a bit approximate.

So here are some of the interesting % chances, as they stand on the morning of Monday 6th March...

Title Winners: Chelsea 83.0%, Man City 10.1%, Spurs 4.7%, Liverpool 0.95%, Woolwich 0.61%, Man United 0.57%.
Top 2 Finish: Chelsea 94.4%, Man City 44.5%, Spurs 32.2%, Liverpool 9.8%, Man United 9.3%, Woolwich 6.9%.
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Man City 87.0%, Spurs 81.0%, Liverpool 57.5%, Woolwich 36.9%, Man United 33.8%.
Top Goalscorer: Kane 47.0%, Lukaku 17.2%, Costa 11.8%, Sanchez 8.7%, Aguero 5.6%, Ibrahimovic 4.3%.
FA Cup Winners: Man City 23.0%, Spurs 21.5%, Chelsea 21.5%, Woolwich 21.1%, Man United 10.5%, Middlesbrough 2.1%, Millwall 0.41%, Lincoln 0.31%

Let me know if you appreciate this and would like to see it updated semi-regularly as the season goes on. If not then I'll just assume that nobody else is as weird as me.
 

Register to remove

Updated Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Man City 85.9%, Spurs 73.5%, Liverpool 61.4%, Woolwich 37.0%, Man United 32.9%. So the markets are less confident about us now with Kane out, having dropped our chances from 81%.

Updated FA Cup Winners: Chelsea 31.7%, Man City 31.3%, Spurs 19.4%, Woolwich 17.7%. So a small change for us there. And the markets now deem Woolwich less likely to win the cup than they did when they still had to get past Lincoln.
 
Last edited:
Update 2nd April (pre City v Woolwich):

Title Winners: Chelsea 86.6%, Spurs 8.2%, Man City 3.8%, Liverpool 1.4%, Man United 0.23%, Woolwich 0.15%.
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 94.1%, Man City 85.9%, Liverpool 77.3%, Woolwich 18.8%.
 
Update 10th April:
Title Winners: Chelsea 89.7%, Spurs 9.3%, all others < 0.25%
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 96.6%, Man City 85.8%, Liverpool 71.9%, Woolwich 23.8%, Man United 18.4%.
FA Cup Winners: Chelsea 31.5%, Man City 30.5%, Spurs 21.1%, Woolwich 17.4%

So beating Swansea and Watford really hasn't changed much for us as far as the title race goes. Chelsea beating City has pretty much eliminated City from the race though. Our top 4 chances have crept up a bit.

Interestingly our chances of winning the cup seem to have gone up, presumably because of Kane coming back and our form.
 

Register to remove

paddygspur

Supporter
Update 10th April:
Title Winners: Chelsea 89.7%, Spurs 9.3%, all others < 0.25%
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 96.6%, Man City 85.8%, Liverpool 71.9%, Woolwich 23.8%, Man United 18.4%.
FA Cup Winners: Chelsea 31.5%, Man City 30.5%, Spurs 21.1%, Woolwich 17.4%

So beating Swansea and Watford really hasn't changed much for us as far as the title race goes. Chelsea beating City has pretty much eliminated City from the race though. Our top 4 chances have crept up a bit.

Interestingly our chances of winning the cup seem to have gone up, presumably because of Kane coming back and our form.
alexwooty alexwooty really like your work on this thread top stuff.
 
Update 10th April:
Title Winners: Chelsea 89.7%, Spurs 9.3%, all others < 0.25%
Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 96.6%, Man City 85.8%, Liverpool 71.9%, Woolwich 23.8%, Man United 18.4%.
FA Cup Winners: Chelsea 31.5%, Man City 30.5%, Spurs 21.1%, Woolwich 17.4%

So beating Swansea and Watford really hasn't changed much for us as far as the title race goes. Chelsea beating City has pretty much eliminated City from the race though. Our top 4 chances have crept up a bit.

Interestingly our chances of winning the cup seem to have gone up, presumably because of Kane coming back and our form.
Strange how the chavs have got higher odds to win the cup, granted they are top of the league but we beat them comfortably at the lane, and even though we lost to them at there place I still make it 3-2 to us on aggregate.......
I wonder how they come up with these odds?
 
Strange how the chavs have got higher odds to win the cup, granted they are top of the league but we beat them comfortably at the lane, and even though we lost to them at there place I still make it 3-2 to us on aggregate.......
I wonder how they come up with these odds?
See the first post in the thread - it's not the bookies themselves coming up with the odds, but punters (both amateur and professional)
 
A quick update seems necessary after last night's result...

Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 97.1%, Man City 89.3%, Liverpool 78.4%, Man United 20.3%, Woolwich 11.8%
 
Strange how the chavs have got higher odds to win the cup, granted they are top of the league but we beat them comfortably at the lane, and even though we lost to them at there place I still make it 3-2 to us on aggregate.......
I wonder how they come up with these odds?
If you look just at the semi-final 90 minutes results odds, it comes out as Chelsea 41.9%, Spurs 29.4%, Draw 28.8% (annoyingly there isn't a market yet for simply getting to the final). To a lot of us Spurs fans that would seem harsh on us, but that's just how the wider footballing/gambling population sees our chances...
 
Strange how the chavs have got higher odds to win the cup, granted they are top of the league but we beat them comfortably at the lane, and even though we lost to them at there place I still make it 3-2 to us on aggregate.......
I wonder how they come up with these odds?
We were really good that game, but I think 'comfortable' is a bit deceptive in truth. There were four chances the whole match. Dele scored both of his, Hazard missed both of his (and they were if anything a little simpler than Dele's headers).
 
So when you started this thread we had perceived 4.7% CHANCE now we are at 16.8%

This is getting exciting.
It's getting interesting, for sure. But I'm not sure the title race is really "wide open" just yet.

I should mention that the odds have stabilised a bit since yesterday afternoon, and we're back down to 14.1% chance. Clearly there was a bit of a rush of people suddenly wanting to back Spurs in the immediate aftermath of Chelsea losing yesterday, which drove our odds down temporarily.
 

Register to remove

Top Bottom