You are currently browsing our forum as a guest. Registration only takes a minute and removes most of the adverts - Sign up here

Spurs Odds and Percentages Thread

Discussion in 'Tottenham Hotspur' started by alexwooty, 6 Mar 2017.

  1. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    As we get into the latter stages of the season, I always find it interesting to look at the odds, and the % chances they imply, of various outcomes happening related to Spurs. Mostly to manage my own expectations, hopes and dreams. I figured I might as well share this in case anyone's interested.

    Spoiler on where these come from and the methodology if you care:
    I use Betfair's Exchange markets to generate the percentages. I take 1 divided by an outcome's 'back' price, 1 divided by an outcomes 'lay' price, and average the two results. This is, in my opinion, the best way to figure out a 'true' % chance of something happening, given that the prices on the Betfair Exchange are effectively set by a free market of thousands of professional punters, analysts and traders, using all the insight, stats, models, judgement and intuition there is out there. Similarly to how company's stock prices are set on stock exchanges. Betfair themselves aren't involved at all in setting the prices - they simply provide a platform for a market, allow their users to offer and to take up bets at whatever prices they want, and skim off a bit of commission on people's winnings. Therefore this is is a better method than looking at conventional bookie's odds, as those are a bit more subjectively determined and also have the bookie's profit margin built into them.

    Don't expect everything to add up nicely to 100%, due to rounding, the averaging involved in the method and the fact that I'm not gonna list every single possibility. Some of the outcomes don't have much liquidity available on them which can make the odds and therefore the % chances a bit approximate.

    So here are some of the interesting % chances, as they stand on the morning of Monday 6th March...

    Title Winners: Chelsea 83.0%, Man City 10.1%, Spurs 4.7%, Liverpool 0.95%, Woolwich 0.61%, Man United 0.57%.
    Top 2 Finish: Chelsea 94.4%, Man City 44.5%, Spurs 32.2%, Liverpool 9.8%, Man United 9.3%, Woolwich 6.9%.
    Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Man City 87.0%, Spurs 81.0%, Liverpool 57.5%, Woolwich 36.9%, Man United 33.8%.
    Top Goalscorer: Kane 47.0%, Lukaku 17.2%, Costa 11.8%, Sanchez 8.7%, Aguero 5.6%, Ibrahimovic 4.3%.
    FA Cup Winners: Man City 23.0%, Spurs 21.5%, Chelsea 21.5%, Woolwich 21.1%, Man United 10.5%, Middlesbrough 2.1%, Millwall 0.41%, Lincoln 0.31%

    Let me know if you appreciate this and would like to see it updated semi-regularly as the season goes on. If not then I'll just assume that nobody else is as weird as me.
     
    • Like x 16
  2. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    #2 alexwooty, 14 Mar 2017
    Last edited: 15 Mar 2017
    Updated Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Man City 85.9%, Spurs 73.5%, Liverpool 61.4%, Woolwich 37.0%, Man United 32.9%. So the markets are less confident about us now with Kane out, having dropped our chances from 81%.

    Updated FA Cup Winners: Chelsea 31.7%, Man City 31.3%, Spurs 19.4%, Woolwich 17.7%. So a small change for us there. And the markets now deem Woolwich less likely to win the cup than they did when they still had to get past Lincoln.
     
  3. paddygspur

    Supporter

    Joined:
    24 Oct 2011
    Messages:
    13,840
    Location:
    London
    Reputation:
    25,931
  4. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    Update 2nd April (pre City v Woolwich):

    Title Winners: Chelsea 86.6%, Spurs 8.2%, Man City 3.8%, Liverpool 1.4%, Man United 0.23%, Woolwich 0.15%.
    Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 94.1%, Man City 85.9%, Liverpool 77.3%, Woolwich 18.8%.
     
    • Like x 6
    • Agree x 1
  5. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    Update 10th April:
    Title Winners: Chelsea 89.7%, Spurs 9.3%, all others < 0.25%
    Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 96.6%, Man City 85.8%, Liverpool 71.9%, Woolwich 23.8%, Man United 18.4%.
    FA Cup Winners: Chelsea 31.5%, Man City 30.5%, Spurs 21.1%, Woolwich 17.4%

    So beating Swansea and Watford really hasn't changed much for us as far as the title race goes. Chelsea beating City has pretty much eliminated City from the race though. Our top 4 chances have crept up a bit.

    Interestingly our chances of winning the cup seem to have gone up, presumably because of Kane coming back and our form.
     
    • Like x 1
  6. Bill Madrid

    Joined:
    6 May 2015
    Messages:
    3,687
    Reputation:
    11,300
    Apparently we're 1-100 to finish top 4. The Arse are 3-1
     
    • Agree x 1
  7. ArcspacE

    BINNED AGAIN

    Joined:
    18 Jul 2012
    Messages:
    31,800
    Location:
    Totti - Cheating Maggot Out Now
    Reputation:
    28,026
    Link?
     
  8. OffTheBench

    Joined:
    16 Sep 2013
    Messages:
    2,782
    Reputation:
    5,106
    • Like x 2
  9. paddygspur

    Supporter

    Joined:
    24 Oct 2011
    Messages:
    13,840
    Location:
    London
    Reputation:
    25,931
    alexwootyalexwooty really like your work on this thread top stuff.
     
    • Agree x 5
    • Like x 1
  10. Fattynomates

    Joined:
    23 Sep 2016
    Messages:
    2,848
    Reputation:
    5,339
    Strange how the chavs have got higher odds to win the cup, granted they are top of the league but we beat them comfortably at the lane, and even though we lost to them at there place I still make it 3-2 to us on aggregate.......
    I wonder how they come up with these odds?
     
  11. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    See the first post in the thread - it's not the bookies themselves coming up with the odds, but punters (both amateur and professional)
     
    • Like x 1
  12. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    A quick update seems necessary after last night's result...

    Top 4 Finish: Chelsea > 99.9%, Spurs 97.1%, Man City 89.3%, Liverpool 78.4%, Man United 20.3%, Woolwich 11.8%
     
    • Like x 4
  13. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    If you look just at the semi-final 90 minutes results odds, it comes out as Chelsea 41.9%, Spurs 29.4%, Draw 28.8% (annoyingly there isn't a market yet for simply getting to the final). To a lot of us Spurs fans that would seem harsh on us, but that's just how the wider footballing/gambling population sees our chances...
     
  14. 94Spurs94

    Joined:
    6 Jan 2015
    Messages:
    658
    Reputation:
    925
    We were really good that game, but I think 'comfortable' is a bit deceptive in truth. There were four chances the whole match. Dele scored both of his, Hazard missed both of his (and they were if anything a little simpler than Dele's headers).
     
  15. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    Title winners update after the Chelsea-Man U match: Chelsea 83.0%, Spurs 16.8%, all others low enough not to mention
     
    • Like x 4
  16. paddygspur

    Supporter

    Joined:
    24 Oct 2011
    Messages:
    13,840
    Location:
    London
    Reputation:
    25,931
    So when you started this thread we had perceived 4.7% CHANCE now we are at 16.8%

    This is getting exciting.
     
    • Agree x 1
  17. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    It's getting interesting, for sure. But I'm not sure the title race is really "wide open" just yet.

    I should mention that the odds have stabilised a bit since yesterday afternoon, and we're back down to 14.1% chance. Clearly there was a bit of a rush of people suddenly wanting to back Spurs in the immediate aftermath of Chelsea losing yesterday, which drove our odds down temporarily.
     
  18. alexwooty

    Joined:
    1 Dec 2012
    Messages:
    2,363
    Reputation:
    3,678
    Cup semi final odds have improved for us - now at Chelsea 36.1%, Spurs 35.0%, Draw 28.8%.
     
  19. bill_nic_kerr

    Joined:
    10 Feb 2012
    Messages:
    204
    Location:
    N17
    Reputation:
    309
    Premier League Winner Betting Odds | Football | Oddschecker

    We are now 4-1 to 5-1 to win the league. Consensus on 9/2.
    A decent bet?
    I got 14-1 for the title at the start of the season and 12-1 for the cup.
    I'm offered cash-out! £16.67 for league and £20 for cup! No way I'm taking it....
     
  20. bill_nic_kerr

    Joined:
    10 Feb 2012
    Messages:
    204
    Location:
    N17
    Reputation:
    309
    Edit £10 bet on each
     
Draft saved Draft deleted
If you see people ruining threads with off-topic discussion, arguing or personal abuse, use the 'Foul' link at the bottom of their post to vote for them to be sent off. More info

Share This Page