Spurs Odds and Percentages Thread

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Skybet make me crack up.
Odds were 7-1 then went out to 10-1 for no reason, we hadn't played or moved positions.
We then beat City and it goes down to 5-1 and stays there after we stay top.
And today it goes down to 11-2 for no reason with Chelsea above us now despite being below us in real life.

City, who have scored 10 goals all season and are in the bottom half are 5-2
Man United, who won their first home games after the Xmas decs went up, on a penalty, are 25-1

It's surely all down to number of bets and barely anything to do with actual performances.
 
Matt1882 said:
Skybet make me crack up.
Odds were 7-1 then went out to 10-1 for no reason, we hadn't played or moved positions.
We then beat City and it goes down to 5-1 and stays there after we stay top.
And today it goes down to 11-2 for no reason with Chelsea above us now despite being below us in real life.

City, who have scored 10 goals all season and are in the bottom half are 5-2
Man United, who won their first home games after the Xmas decs went up, on a penalty, are 25-1

It's surely all down to number of bets and barely anything to do with actual performances.
Click to expand...
Yes, think it is all about the bets, which will reflect what people betting think will happen, though not necessarily the mathematical odds (which in any case are probably impossible to know with any degree of accuracy).
 
Matt1882 said:
Skybet make me crack up.
Odds were 7-1 then went out to 10-1 for no reason, we hadn't played or moved positions.
We then beat City and it goes down to 5-1 and stays there after we stay top.
And today it goes down to 11-2 for no reason with Chelsea above us now despite being below us in real life.

City, who have scored 10 goals all season and are in the bottom half are 5-2
Man United, who won their first home games after the Xmas decs went up, on a penalty, are 25-1

It's surely all down to number of bets and barely anything to do with actual performances.
Click to expand...
That's how they make money though. If anyone is daft enough to look and think "wow, I can get 25-1 on United and Ole's at the wheel...it's easy money!" That's easy money for sure, for the house. The oddsmakers know exactly what they're doing with those kinds of bets. Occasionally, the put out Leicester at 5000-1 or something and they get caught, but mostly those odds are just fantasy and it's free money for the house.
 
The odds also go down when a lot of money goes on it. So a bunch of Manure fans probably dumped a load of money on them after beating WBA 1-0 on a penalty.
Because they're thick.
 
Calgary Spur said:
That's how they make money though. If anyone is daft enough to look and think "wow, I can get 25-1 on United and Ole's at the wheel...it's easy money!" That's easy money for sure, for the house. The oddsmakers know exactly what they're doing with those kinds of bets. Occasionally, the put out Leicester at 5000-1 or something and they get caught, but mostly those odds are just fantasy and it's free money for the house.
Click to expand...
Yes. I used to do a lot of betting and I definitely think the value is more often found in backing short-priced favourites (which goes against what most people think) rather than the massive underdogs- or at least it was back then. I remember reading something written by an insider about bookies taking less of a risk with the long odds than with the short prices.
 
palmers_green_yid said:
Yes. I used to do a lot of betting and I definitely think the value is more often found in backing short-priced favourites (which goes against what most people think) rather than the massive underdogs- or at least it was back then. I remember reading something written by an insider about bookies taking less of a risk with the long odds than with the short prices.
Click to expand...
I have a buddy who wrote some computer code to try and win money at horse racing and he said as much—that the long shots were always bad bets but occasionally you could find a good value among one of the favorites.
 
I rarely bet but when I do I stick £5 or £10 on something with huge odds.
It's unlikely to happen but I won't miss the tenner because I rarely do it.
And nothing is impossible.
 
Ignoring the possibility of us winning the league (1500 to 1), here are the 3 main battles we're in, from most likely to least likely according to the odds.

League Cup

Man City 1/3 ie 75%
Spurs 9/4 ie 31%
Obviously there's some bookie profit in there.

Top 4

Man City off the board
Man U 1/6 ie 86%
Chelsea 1/3 ie 75%
Leicester 3/4 ie 57%
Spurs 16/5 ie 24%
West Ham 4/1 ie 20%
Liverpool 5/1 ie 17%
Everton 44/5 10%
Everybody else 40/1 or worse

Europa League

Spurs 41/10 ie 20%
Man U 9/2 ie 18%
Woolwich 5/1 ie 17%
Roma 9/1 ie 10%
Ajax 9/1 ie 10%
Villareal 10/1 ie 9%
Milan 23/2 ie 8%
Granada 25/1 ie 4%
Rangers 35/1 ie 3%
Everybody else 66/1 or worse

First interesting thing is that most people seem to believe that we have a better shot of winning the EL than getting top 4. Bettors do not agree. Even though we are the favorites to win the EL, there's still so many good teams left that the odds are spread around pretty thin. Plus there can only be one EL winner while there's still three top 4 spots up for grabs. While Man U might seem like a mortal lock for Top 4, oddsmakers give them a meaningful (14%) chance of not getting it. And it gets even more pronounced when you're talking about Chelsea or Leicester failing to make top 4.

Second interesting thing to me is that Chelsea is considered significantly more likely to make top 4 than Leicester despite sitting 3 points below them. I think bettors are very concerned about Leicester's injuries and remaining fixtures, as they barely give them more than a 50% chance of holding on to a top 4 spot.

Third interesting thing to me is that Everton appear close to written off by bettors for top 4 besides seeming to be well in the hunt points-wise.

Last interesting thing to me is that Man U is still second favorite to win the EL despite having a very real challenge ahead of them just to get into the next round.
 
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