Spurs Odds and Percentages Thread

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Updated chances. Featuring Champions League odds before and after the draw.

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alexwooty said:
I'll take a look tomorrow
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Good shit Alex. I only just saw this thread now, but you think similar to me.

As a professional gambler for 15 years I believe your initial post explains perfectly how to interpret probabilities from betfair, and the reasons behind it.

Are you in the industry yourself?

The match against the scum last weekend was interesting.
Early in the week, it was dead level pretty much who would win on the markets.
Then when lineups were announced, we went to decent favourites.
Then after 5 minutes of play, still at 0-0, they were favourites.
Then even at half time when we was winning 2-1. They were predicted way more likely to score next.

What’s encouraging me right now is that even though we are currently not in top 4, we are indicated to have 67% chance of finishing top4, and the gooners only 43%. Confirming that we are a stronger team, but I always believed that anyway.
 
Time for another update. Believe it or not, we're seen as more likely to win the league now than we were in mid-December. Top 4 looking very good indeed, and golden boot chances improved for Kane.

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Latest chances. Last night has boosted our CL chances up to a heady 5.5%! And we're seen as having a 90.9% chance of getting to the quarters.

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Woolwich and Chelsea are unfortunately favourites for the Europa, at 14.7% and 17.5% respectively. Napoli, Inter and Sevilla the other main contenders.
 
The odds also go down when a lot of money goes on it. So a bunch of Manure fans probably dumped a load of money on them after beating WBA 1-0 on a penalty.
Because they're thick.
 
Calgary Spur said:
That's how they make money though. If anyone is daft enough to look and think "wow, I can get 25-1 on United and Ole's at the wheel...it's easy money!" That's easy money for sure, for the house. The oddsmakers know exactly what they're doing with those kinds of bets. Occasionally, the put out Leicester at 5000-1 or something and they get caught, but mostly those odds are just fantasy and it's free money for the house.
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Yes. I used to do a lot of betting and I definitely think the value is more often found in backing short-priced favourites (which goes against what most people think) rather than the massive underdogs- or at least it was back then. I remember reading something written by an insider about bookies taking less of a risk with the long odds than with the short prices.
 
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