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Discussion in 'Tottenham Hotspur' started by alexwooty, 6 Mar 2017.
Interesting, but I really can't see that Chavs are better odds than Manure to get CL - 55% to 26%
Given the way their algorithm works, I'd bet it doesn't take into account the sudden change in United management from Mourinho to Olé, and instead focuses on their earlier season performances.
Because yeah, I'm with you in thinking Chelsea are less likely to get top 4 than United.
We are 6/1 to finish OUTSIDE the top 4.
2% seems too low given that we still play Liverpool
Not when you consider they give us only a 20% chance of winning at Anfield. Sure, it's an oppourtunity, but it's nearly three times as likely that that game sees Liverpool win and erase any hope. And even if we did win we'd still be some way behind.
That being said, it's not the position we're in that means they give us such a low chance. City only have two more points and they're at 26%. It's more that they think we've been pretty lucky so far: we've managed 2.28 points per game, but they only expect us to get another 1.85 per game from this point onwards. Partly that's as we do have a tough remaining fixture list with four big teams left out of 13 games, but even with that they think we've been playing more like a 2 point per game team than 2.28. Especially on recent form, that's fair. In our last six we've lost at home to Wolves (!!!) and United (still not good), while sneaking very, very late wins against Fulham, Watford and Newcastle where we should've been far more comfortable - the only good match has been at Cardiff, and we've also gone out of two cups in that time. We had similar just before that against Burnley, and in general have been just scraping results rather than playing brilliantly - only three times have we won by 3+ goals. That points to a team with a lot of grit and fight, but ultimately isn't sustainable (you can't score late every week) and doesn't suggest you'll do that well when up against truly top sides (see: City, Liverpool and Barca all dominating us at Wembley). Fundamentally, it's the statistics you'd expect of side competing for the Top 4, and our ability to keep fighting and eke out results is what makes us a solid 3rd above the rest of those teams, but isn't enough to have a great chance of the title even if we weren't already a distance behind at this point.
But if you stick with their logic then they are saying we would be more likely to win the league if we didn't have to play Liverpool - which is bollocks. If it were the last game of the season and we were 3 points behind with a better goal difference we would be more likely to win the league if the game is against them.
True in that specific situation, because they very rarely lose especially to non-big teams. But imagine instead, for instance, that we're level on points with an inferior goal difference. Away to Liverpool, we have a 20% chance to win the game and thus the league. If we weren't playing Liverpool but instead e.g. Huddersfield while they played Newcastle, we'd have a 21.5% chance. Going away to Liverpool is only a clear advantage if the situation is so desperate that we need them to lose, and them dropping points with draws isn't enough any more. Otherwise, it's much more likely to hurt our chances than help them.
Another way of looking at it: on an average matchday from now until the end of the season, we're expected to fall a further 0.51 points behind Liverpool. At Anfield, we will on average fall a further 1.11 points behind them. It gives us a "Hail Mary", but that doesn't come close to compensating for the fact that a) it's a very difficult match and b) that it's a much better oppourtunity for them to seal it barring a very specific situation.
AND NOW IT'S JUST JUMPED UP TO 3%
Premier League Predictions
Latest chances. Last night has boosted our CL chances up to a heady 5.5%! And we're seen as having a 90.9% chance of getting to the quarters.
Woolwich and Chelsea are unfortunately favourites for the Europa, at 14.7% and 17.5% respectively. Napoli, Inter and Sevilla the other main contenders.
That Chelsea drop literally schadenfreude in chart form.
There appears to be something funky going on with the CL winners chart. The data says Spurs are at 5.5% but the chart appears to put us even with Real on somewhere about 8%?
It seems you have some names/badges/colours mixed up somewhere. I think our data is confused with A Madrids badge on the chart for example.
We are Liverpool. Athletico is us. Liverpool are Athletico.
You take that back right now!
You're right, my bad. Fixed:
Paging Mr. alexwooty to the thread. I know I'm a tiresome cunt, but any chance of a quick CL winners odds update before AND after the draw?
Here you go Mr. Rocket. Pre-draw odds have us at 5.3%, which is actually lower than it was just after our first leg against Dortmund, weirdly. Ajax and Porto aren't on the graphic but are at 3% and 1% respectively. Will update again this afternoon!
Nice one, thanks for that. I would fucking love to see that 5.3% turn into a CL final win. I'm keeping the faith. COYS.
ps. good work on making sure the Woolwich badge stays as the one showing on 0%. Top drawer comedy.
Down to 3.5%. Which is still higher than it was just after the last 16 draw was made at least.
Must mean we're going to
Interesting to see Barca's odds have gone out after the draw. Wonder what the market's thinking is there.
Juve and Liverpool got 'easy' draws so they shortened ... so just balancing the book