Why finishing in top 4 will be harder ( but still attainable)

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our last 3 fixtures are rancid - a greasy oil slick with a banana skin and dog shit layered on top
Rose and Kane will be fit; if we have a full squad to select from by then, I would be confident of picking up the full 9 points.

Wet Spam - their home form is shocking, almost relegation form. On that big pitch, Rose and Walker will absolutely tear them a new one. I know they will be up for it, but at home they are shit. Moose, Victor and/or Winks will make Noble look like a Pensioner.

Manure: Maureen's big challenge now is the EL - another trophy and CL spot guaranteed. SAF quoted today EL is better chance for them than top 4. I think they will put all their eggs in the EL basket and beat Anderlecht in the QF. Which means we play them 3 days after their semi. Odds on they'll be in the final by then, and our match will be pretty meaningless for them.

Hull - I like Silva, and hope I'm wrong, but I think they'll be down by then. I dont think Poch would stand for another Barcodes experience. Last season was different. We also missed Moose and Ali. Winks for Moose this season; Ali has cut out the silly off the ball retrospective reds.
 
It's simple really, why move the goalposts now? We might catch Chelsea, but let's not worry about doing it. We desperately tried to catch Leicester last year and it backfired horribly for us.

I don't believe it backfired for us at all. Everyone will remember us kicking the shit out of Chelsea because we were gutted we didn't win the title and they'll also remember Woolwich celebrating finishing above us like they'd won the title. It showed the different directions the clubs are going in.

The transformation will be complete next season. They'll be in their Puma kits, playing Europa League football, dreaming about breaking into the top 4, while we'll be the Nike wearing CL team hopefully embarking on another title challenge.
 
I don't believe it backfired for us at all. Everyone will remember us kicking the shit out of Chelsea because we were gutted we didn't win the title and they'll also remember Woolwich celebrating finishing above us like they'd won the title. It showed the different directions the clubs are going in.

The transformation will be complete next season. They'll be in their Puma kits, playing Europa League football, dreaming about breaking into the top 4, while we'll be the Nike wearing CL team hopefully embarking on another title challenge.

The end of our season last year was a disaster. Let's not pretend otherwise. After the draw at WBA we were atrocious. But I agree with the sentiment that things are changing.
 
Done a little mucking about on a predictor thingy.

By my reckoning we can afford to drop points this weekend (loss), away at Leicester (loss) home to Utd (draw) and away at spammers (draw) and still finish in the top four as long as we win the rest of our games, and that's with all of our rivals for the top four not dropping any points unexpectedly (which won't happen).

Goons have tricky games at home to West Ham, Leicester (who are resurgent) and City and Utd. And have to come to ours. They will be bricking it even more than usual.

Lolerklop have got the Merseyside derby at home, otherwise fairly straight forward...but they WILL continue to drop points on the road as they have done all season.

Mansour Citeh have to go to Woolwich, Chelsea and have Utd and Leicester at home.

Utd are well out of it at 7 points (and a game in hand) behind us. With Burnley, Woolwich, City and Us to go to and Chelsea at home.

Best case we edge 2nd with Liverpool and City close on our heels, maybe by Goal Difference. Worst case we finish in 4th but well above Utd and Woolwich in 5th and 6th.

COYS!
 
Sorry but that is not the worst case whatsoever.

Based on our form this season I would say that its a realistic statement.

Dont get me wrong i still know deep within me that we will always have the potential to self implode spectacularly, but do you not feel that we are even further removed from that reputation this year? Even with what happened at the back end of last?

We've lost three games all season and are the only team in the league unbeaten at home. I would say we have more players in form and therefore better depth than we have last year despite the injuries.

What do you see as worst case?
 
Based on our form this season I would say that its a realistic statement.

Dont get me wrong i still know deep within me that we will always have the potential to self implode spectacularly, but do you not feel that we are even further removed from that reputation this year? Even with what happened at the back end of last?

We've lost three games all season and are the only team in the league unbeaten at home. I would say we have more players in form and therefore better depth than we have last year despite the injuries.

What do you see as worst case?
Dele and Dembele going in a bit rough with some tackling and picking up six-match bans right as the run-in begins would be a bit of a pisser.
 
I think I am bad at this predictor thing...

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...or am I?

:townhmm:
 
Rose and Kane will be fit; if we have a full squad to select from by then, I would be confident of picking up the full 9 points.

Wet Spam - their home form is shocking, almost relegation form. On that big pitch, Rose and Walker will absolutely tear them a new one. I know they will be up for it, but at home they are shit. Moose, Victor and/or Winks will make Noble look like a Pensioner.

Manure: Maureen's big challenge now is the EL - another trophy and CL spot guaranteed. SAF quoted today EL is better chance for them than top 4. I think they will put all their eggs in the EL basket and beat Anderlecht in the QF. Which means we play them 3 days after their semi. Odds on they'll be in the final by then, and our match will be pretty meaningless for them.

Hull - I like Silva, and hope I'm wrong, but I think they'll be down by then. I dont think Poch would stand for another Barcodes experience. Last season was different. We also missed Moose and Ali. Winks for Moose this season; Ali has cut out the silly off the ball retrospective reds.
Yes. The players will have learned from it and it won't happen again. We might fall short of our targets, but not in that way.
 
What do you see as worst case?
Given 6th place is only 6 points behind us at this stage if Woolwich win their game in hand, with nearly a third of the season to go I think the realistic worse case is clearly still 6th.

If 5th place win their game in hand, they're only 4 behind us, so to safely say the worst case is a scenario where we still finish above them is very over confident. Especially when we still have to play that team.

As it is I'm confident of top 4, but you're suggesting it is absolutely done and dusted, which cannot be said yet.
 
Given 6th place is only 6 points behind us at this stage if Woolwich win their game in hand, with nearly a third of the season to go I think the realistic worse case is clearly still 6th.

If 5th place win their game in hand, they're only 4 behind us, so to safely say the worst case is a scenario where we still finish above them is very over confident. Especially when we still have to play that team.

As it is I'm confident of top 4, but you're suggesting it is absolutely done and dusted, which cannot be said yet.

My confidence is based on who the teams around us still have to play and our form at home this season, but i agree it's probably premature to say its "done and dusted".

We will certainly be closer to knowing by the end of next week.
 
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