Have just seen that they confirmed the full regulations yesterday and there's one previously unannounced rule change that could affect us. Pot 1 used to consist of the champions of the top 7 leagues, plus the previous CL winner. Now it also includes the previous EL winner instead of the 7th champion. That means either Atletico Madrid or Marseille will be in Pot 1 instead of Porto, who are moved to Pot 2. So Pot 1 is now:
Liverpool or Real Madrid (CL)
Marseille or Atletico Madrid (EL)
Barcelona (ESP)
Manchester City (ENG)
Bayern Munich (GER)
Juventus* (ITA)
Paris Saint Germain (FRA)
Lokomotiv Moscow (RUS)
(*Could also be Napoli, but 99.9% chance of Juventus and makes no difference to us anyway).
If Atletico win the EL this makes no difference to us, since they're just swapping pots with Porto who were both above us anyway. If Marseille wins however, they now overtake us.
So without taking into account all the silly scenarios involving Liverpool losing at home to Brighton or Hoffenheim losing 15-0 to Leverkusen or whatever, we need two of the following four things to happen to be in Pot 2:
Real Madrid to win the Champions League
Atletico Madrid to win the Europa League
Sporting Lisbon to finish 2nd in Portugal
FC Basel to lose in Champions League qualifying.
The first three of these are about 2 in 3 chances, and Basel probably better than that since they'd have to win three qualifying rounds with the latter too being probably 50/50 ties on paper. So we really should still be fine, but it would be so typical to get screwed by a last-minute rule change after we've already qualified!
Liverpool or Real Madrid (CL)
Marseille or Atletico Madrid (EL)
Barcelona (ESP)
Manchester City (ENG)
Bayern Munich (GER)
Juventus* (ITA)
Paris Saint Germain (FRA)
Lokomotiv Moscow (RUS)
(*Could also be Napoli, but 99.9% chance of Juventus and makes no difference to us anyway).
If Atletico win the EL this makes no difference to us, since they're just swapping pots with Porto who were both above us anyway. If Marseille wins however, they now overtake us.
So without taking into account all the silly scenarios involving Liverpool losing at home to Brighton or Hoffenheim losing 15-0 to Leverkusen or whatever, we need two of the following four things to happen to be in Pot 2:
Real Madrid to win the Champions League
Atletico Madrid to win the Europa League
Sporting Lisbon to finish 2nd in Portugal
FC Basel to lose in Champions League qualifying.
The first three of these are about 2 in 3 chances, and Basel probably better than that since they'd have to win three qualifying rounds with the latter too being probably 50/50 ties on paper. So we really should still be fine, but it would be so typical to get screwed by a last-minute rule change after we've already qualified!