Christ, so much to unpack here.
Keeping a record to see how accurate or how bullshit stats are.
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Which ones? Goals and points are statistics too. Are they bullshit? Do you mean counting events, or do you mean trying to calculate probability?
Chelsea have dropped 15 points from the original 10,000 simulator and Leicester gained 22.
From what? Whose "simulator" is this? What model are they using, and what sources are they relying on for data?
Stats can never capture the elusive chance of environment, opportunity, human spirit or even substance of the number itself.
Not sure what this even means. We have some real subject/object disagreement and misuse of the OED definition of the word chance. And numbers have substance? You mean some are imaginary like Hobbes said?
Wonder if we'll ever be predicted to be on top? Probably not, but will be sweet when we will be there at the end of the season and the supercomputer simulated 60,000 times + will have failed to have gotten it right.
By whom? We aren't favourite in most models that I have seen, simply because either the model rates the players lower (for those who do ratings based on player value) or they rate other teams higher, based on things like strength of remaining schedule or the regressions they use (like payroll). That said, Paul Riley's model does rate us highest, and has done for over 2 months at this point:
| Tableau Public
For that matter, why only run a simulation 60,000 times? That's a really small sample for a supercomputer, since most laptop-using stats people seem to prefer sample sizes of 1 million simulated seasons, that I've seen. Does this supercomputer say "Casio" on the top and fit in your pocket?
October 7th (8)-November 10th (12)-December 16th (16)-January 25th (23)
01. Man City 80-79-76-74
02. Woolwich 78-78-77-75
03. Man Utd 75-76-72-65
04. Chelsea 72-66-59-57
05. Liverpool 65-64-64-61
06. Tottenham 64-66-64-68
07. Everton 57-56-55-51
08. Southampton 54-56-51-53
09. Crystal Palace 53-52-53-50
10. West Ham 50-53-51-56
11. Swansea 47-45-41-42
12. Stoke 46-48-50-52
13. Leicester 45-50-61-67
14. West Brom 40-42-44-44
15. Newcastle 38-39-41-38
16. Norwich 38-37-35-38
17. Watford 37-39-44-47
18. Bournemouth 36-33-37-39
19. Aston Villa 34-33-29-28
20. Sunderland 32-31-33-33
October 7th (8) -November 10th (12)-December 16th (16)-January 25th (23)
01. Man City 01-01-02-02
02. Woolwich 02-02-01-01
03. Man Utd 03-03-03-05
04. Chelsea 04-04-07-07
05. Liverpool 05-06-05-06
06. Tottenham 06-05-04-03
07. Everton 07-08-08-11
08. Southampton 08-07-10-09
09. Crystal Palace 09-10-09-12
10. West Ham 10-09-11-08
11. Swansea 11-13-15-15
12. Stoke 12-12-12-10
13. Leicester 13-11-06-04
14. West Brom 14-14-14-14
15. Newcastle 15-16-16-17
16. Norwich 16-17-18-18
17. Watford 17-15-13-13
18. Bournemouth 18-19-17-16
19. Aston Villa 19-18-20-20
20. Sunderland 20-20-19-19
So, what even is this? Expected final points? Final finishing positions? By who? The only thing you've done is started an entirely new thread for a topic we already had 3 different threads for, while showing that you actually don't understand what either "statistics" or probability are.