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ArcspacE said:
There is nothing to understand - it's just meaningless bullshit made up by wankers with no lives and OCD
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You should probably tell the club this, it would save Daniel Levy a lot of money to ignore this meaningless bullshit Pochettino, Mitchell and MacKenzie invest a lot of their time and money in. Levy'd have a lot more money to spend on Falcao, Pato and Doumbia like you insist he should instead.
 
Juicy Sushi said:
Then why'd you click on the thread in the first place? I don't think you quite get what the discussion in here is, or how this stuff works. That's fine, you don't have to, but why click on the thread to simply say you don't understand and don't want to?
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I've got fat thumbs... I meant to click on the "just faaakin' run araaand a bit" thread, but missed!
:harrysmile::bmj::avbfacepalm:

Nah, I'm not denying statistics' usefulness in life.. Many people make a very decent living out of them I'm sure.. it just always makes me laugh that ANY football predictions based on statistics can be rendered useless simply cos I didn't wear my lucky pants the right way round for a statistical home banker... and the next thing you know, Newcastle have a last minute winner and if that wasnt proof enough, Palace score for the first time in 8 HOURS!
Statistics said that SHOULDN'T HAPPEN!!!!
Does that mean statistics are bunkem when Spurs are involved???
 
1882 said:
I've got fat thumbs... I meant to click on the "just faaakin' run araaand a bit" thread, but missed!
:harrysmile::bmj::avbfacepalm:

Nah, I'm not denying statistics' usefulness in life.. Many people make a very decent living out of them I'm sure.. it just always makes me laugh that ANY football predictions based on statistics can be rendered useless simply cos I didn't wear my lucky pants the right way round for a statistical home banker... and the next thing you know, Newcastle have a last minute winner and if that wasnt proof enough, Palace score for the first time in 8 HOURS!
Statistics said that SHOULDN'T HAPPEN!!!!
Does that mean statistics are bunkem when Spurs are involved???
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I don't think you understand how they work.

There are two things. Statistics which are simple counting of actions taken (like shots, passes, goals), and calculations of probability based on past actions. The latter is what you seem to be talking about, but you don't seem to really understand how they work.

They don't say what will or won't happen. They don't "predict" things. They measure what is more, or less, likely to happen. Something really unlikely to happen (like Leicester winning the League) can still happen. It just isn't something which is a common or easily repeatable event.

That's how the bookies work. They use statistics to calculate what are the most probable outcomes, and then you bet against how likely or unlikely the bookies think those things are. Given that the bookies make good money, and punters usually lose a fair bit, it's safe to say that using statistics to measure what is likely or unlikely to happen in a football game is a real, and useful tool.
 
Juicy Sushi said:
I don't think you understand how they work.

There are two things. Statistics which are simple counting of actions taken (like shots, passes, goals), and calculations of probability based on past actions. The latter is what you seem to be talking about, but you don't seem to really understand how they work.

They don't say what will or won't happen. They don't "predict" things. They measure what is more, or less, likely to happen. Something really unlikely to happen (like Leicester winning the League) can still happen. It just isn't something which is a common or easily repeatable event.

That's how the bookies work. They use statistics to calculate what are the most probable outcomes, and then you bet against how likely or unlikely the bookies think those things are. Given that the bookies make good money, and punters usually lose a fair bit, it's safe to say that using statistics to measure what is likely or unlikely to happen in a football game is a real, and useful tool.
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DAMMIT you're right!!

I guess what I'm getting at, and trying to avoid all notion of, is that STATISTICALLY (the one based on past events) we are likely to get very badly beaten on Sunday... going back before The Sheikhs got in, we used to do alright up there... but since then, bar that crazy aberration in 2010, the norm is we go there, get spanked, find some ballotelli reason why it was so unfair and come home again...

What I'm saying is that STATISTICS don't back up the weird optimism coursing through our veins at the moment... it's a head v heart situation... the stats from this season may look promising, but based on past events, and how things have often gone up there, doesn't look goid for us.
I don't wanna look at the stats from the past, 'cos I wanna go into Sunday with a SHRED of optimism. Not expect the Spursy and moan about how unfair it all is when it STATISTICALLY speaking, comes to pass... Thass all!

But yes, your explanation and reasoning behind how (and more importantly WHY) stats work is both insightful and useful. Thank you.
 
1882 said:
DAMMIT you're right!!

I guess what I'm getting at, and trying to avoid all notion of, is that STATISTICALLY (the one based on past events) we are likely to get very badly beaten on Sunday... going back before The Sheikhs got in, we used to do alright up there... but since then, bar that crazy aberration in 2010, the norm is we go there, get spanked, find some ballotelli reason why it was so unfair and come home again...

What I'm saying is that STATISTICS don't back up the weird optimism coursing through our veins at the moment... it's a head v heart situation... the stats from this season may look promising, but based on past events, and how things have often gone up there, doesn't look goid for us.
I don't wanna look at the stats from the past, 'cos I wanna go into Sunday with a SHRED of optimism. Not expect the Spursy and moan about how unfair it all is when it STATISTICALLY speaking, comes to pass... Thass all!

But yes, your explanation and reasoning behind how (and more importantly WHY) stats work is both insightful and useful. Thank you.
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By an awful lot of statistical measures, we actually have a good chance of beating them actually. They have homefield advantage, but we create more and better chances, especially as an away team compared to the norm. The statistics, be they plain or probability based, actually justify the optimism. And gave the earliest signs of it, before most fans felt it.
 
Juicy Sushi said:
By an awful lot of statistical measures, we actually have a good chance of beating them actually. They have homefield advantage, but we create more and better chances, especially as an away team compared to the norm. The statistics, be they plain or probability based, actually justify the optimism. And gave the earliest signs of it, before most fans felt it.
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Blimey... really??
All aboard the Optimism Stat-Train then... Choo-Chooooo!!!
 
Juicy Sushi said:
By an awful lot of statistical measures, we actually have a good chance of beating them actually. They have homefield advantage, but we create more and better chances, especially as an away team compared to the norm. The statistics, be they plain or probability based, actually justify the optimism. And gave the earliest signs of it, before most fans felt it.
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But you just know that Sky Sports will crack out the "Spurs have lost their last 5 matches at the Etihad, including a 4-1 and a 6-0" crap and people will see it as 'stats'...
 
alexwooty said:
But you just know that Sky Sports will crack out the "Spurs have lost their last 5 matches at the Etihad, including a 4-1 and a 6-0" crap and people will see it as 'stats'...
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Oh, Abso-fucking-lutely. Gary Neville buggering off to take Valencia down basically meant that short of Alan Shearer suddenly picking up on the stuff (he actually does follow a stats-guy on twitter, so who knows), there is no one on UK TV who is about to move the game on.

But at some point, it's coming. Some Bundesliga and Spanish TV broadcasts have used xG shot maps in their analysis, and Wenger can only mention expected goals so many times in press conferences before the journos in the audience have to start trying to explain things to their readers.
 
Juicy Sushi said:
Oh, Abso-fucking-lutely. Gary Neville buggering off to take Valencia down basically meant that short of Alan Shearer suddenly picking up on the stuff (he actually does follow a stats-guy on twitter, so who knows), there is no one on UK TV who is about to move the game on.

But at some point, it's coming. Some Bundesliga and Spanish TV broadcasts have used xG shot maps in their analysis, and Wenger can only mention expected goals so many times in press conferences before the journos in the audience have to start trying to explain things to their readers.
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I think that UK fans are somehow more resistant to such stats than, say, Spanish or German fans. In the same way that they've proved to be resistant to tactical innovations entering our game like false nines, inverted wingers etc. There's a strong ingrained belief here that the traditional way of looking at the game is the best ("we'll play four-four-fucking-two!"). Sky and MOTD know that, so they're reluctant to over-intellectualise their coverage.
 
alexwooty said:
I think that UK fans are somehow more resistant to such stats than, say, Spanish or German fans. In the same way that they've proved to be resistant to tactical innovations entering our game like false nines, inverted wingers etc. There's a strong ingrained belief here that the traditional way of looking at the game is the best ("we'll play four-four-fucking-two!"). Sky and MOTD know that, so they're reluctant to over-intellectualise their coverage.
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I think the lack of alternative views conditions UK fans to think that way though. UK fans who didn't think that way in the past just turned to following continental football instead. Social media seems to be doing the same thing to UK journalism, albeit at a snail's pace.
 
ArcspacE said:
There is nothing to understand - it's just meaningless bullshit made up by wankers with no lives and OCD
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Wotcha AcE...thankfully I learned to take you with a large dose of bicarbonate from early on.
Did not the stats point out that W'ham's early performances were unsustainable?
Have not the stats pointed out that crosses and corners present low scoring opportunities?...we tried them 38 times against Watford....
I would never try to convert the nonbeliever, that said, if you spend you life wearing gloves you'll never learn to pick your nose will you?
 
Keeping a record to see how accurate or how bullshit stats are.

Chelsea have dropped 15 points from the original 10,000 simulator and Leicester gained 22.

Stats can never capture the elusive chance of environment, opportunity, human spirit or even substance of the number itself.

Wonder if we'll ever be predicted to be on top? Probably not, but will be sweet when we will be there at the end of the season and the supercomputer simulated 60,000 times + will have failed to have gotten it right.

October 7th (8)-November 10th (12)-December 16th (16)-January 25th (23)
01. Man City 80-79-76-74
02. Woolwich 78-78-77-75
03. Man Utd 75-76-72-65
04. Chelsea 72-66-59-57
05. Liverpool 65-64-64-61
06. Tottenham 64-66-64-68
07. Everton 57-56-55-51
08. Southampton 54-56-51-53
09. Crystal Palace 53-52-53-50
10. West Ham 50-53-51-56
11. Swansea 47-45-41-42
12. Stoke 46-48-50-52
13. Leicester 45-50-61-67
14. West Brom 40-42-44-44
15. Newcastle 38-39-41-38
16. Norwich 38-37-35-38
17. Watford 37-39-44-47
18. Bournemouth 36-33-37-39
19. Aston Villa 34-33-29-28
20. Sunderland 32-31-33-33

October 7th (8) -November 10th (12)-December 16th (16)-January 25th (23)
01. Man City 01-01-02-02
02. Woolwich 02-02-01-01
03. Man Utd 03-03-03-05
04. Chelsea 04-04-07-07
05. Liverpool 05-06-05-06
06. Tottenham 06-05-04-03
07. Everton 07-08-08-11
08. Southampton 08-07-10-09
09. Crystal Palace 09-10-09-12
10. West Ham 10-09-11-08
11. Swansea 11-13-15-15
12. Stoke 12-12-12-10
13. Leicester 13-11-06-04
14. West Brom 14-14-14-14
15. Newcastle 15-16-16-17
16. Norwich 16-17-18-18
17. Watford 17-15-13-13
18. Bournemouth 18-19-17-16
19. Aston Villa 19-18-20-20
20. Sunderland 20-20-19-19
 
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I think the Elephant in the room is this;
why, on any given Saturday/Sunday... do we go to games, sometimes with that weird feeling of confidence (that knows no statistical limits) that we will win today... "I can just feel it in my water"
Then on any other given Saturday/Sunday... do we go to games, (against statistically beatable opposition) with that horrible, gut-wrenching feeling, that everything is about to go wrong...
STATISTICS don't back that feeling up, they just make it worse by proving to us what should've happened!

That's where STATISTICS and real life tend to get in the way of one another...

...and I think that's the point i've been trying to make all along!

FINALLY... and against all the statistical odds... I've managed it!
 
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