Thanks Case!
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Apologise for the reaction. Can you please explain?
You asked what stats would tell if you beat them up. I made a play on the anthropomorphizing of stats by pointing out they can't talk, but the people who devise them can. And how said people would react if you beat them up.
I get part of it now you've explained but the second part?
" if you beat up a stats nerd" A foolish person with a head full of statistical information, i get that bit.
" they may tell you a few things" talk to you .
" Although a lot of it will be not very nice stuff about your mother" This I do not understand?.
Thats ok, Its an on going joke-thanks for making that clear. I thought I was going nuts.
If you beat someone up, exactly how pleasantly do you expect them to talk with you?
ochfacepalm:
I would but the nerds are all too hungover today to produce any new material.
The Opta Pro Forum and booze-up was yesterday. So no one's in a fit condition today, but here's a good look at some people/organizations who are big on this stuff:
The Opta Pro Forum and booze-up was yesterday. So no one's in a fit condition today, but here's a good look at some people/organizations who are big on this stuff:
Yeah, but the problem is, we don't get to play Man City 100 times on Sunday to approximate the most statistically probably outcome... we only get one shot at it (and we'll get two shots at them in the League next year too... provided neither of us gets relegated in the next 3 months... statistically improbable, but it could happen!!)
My point all along, is not to debunk stats, but to simply question whether they have any part to play at all in the feeling you get before a game.
Statistically speaking, we've done very poorly up there in the past few years, and yet here we are, crowing about how scared they are of us... simply based on this season... what about all the other shockers we've had up there? I'm crapping it... and even more so because so much seemingly depends on it this year... maybe i'm a slave to statistics... I'm feeling the pressure 'cos statistically we usually get battered up there... and yet maybe I should ignore statistics, and hope that this 1 in 100 game (well, 2 in 100, 'cos we did it in 2010) comes round this Sunday when it matters... not next year, or the year after, when there may not be so much at stake!
First of all, no, I don't see that statistics and the feelings one fan has are related, so I agree with you there.
Second, you seem to be confusing results with statistics. I suppose our record reflects a number of wins, losses, and draws, so you might call it a stat in a purely literal sense, but results from years past involving entirely different sets of players is a practically worthless statistic because it has such a weak statistical correlation with results. I assure you the stats the club uses are not "what's our past record at City?" Again, pointing out a useless statistic does not prove that statistics are useless.
Second, you seem to be confusing results with statistics. I suppose our record reflects a number of wins, losses, and draws, so you might call it a stat in a purely literal sense, but results from years past involving entirely different sets of players is a practically worthless statistic because it has such a weak statistical correlation with results. I assure you the stats the club uses are not "what's our past record at City?" Again, pointing out a useless statistic does not prove that statistics are useless.
Bloody hell.....
Look, the predictive aspect of stats, in any arena, on any subject, will always be open to debate simply because the patterns upon which they are based are open to
constant change. It therefore follows that the predictions must also follow a pattern of flux.
Given the infinite number of variables in a game of football I find the attempts to predict, for example, final league positions interesting but not something I would bet
the house on!
Pep Guardiola confirmed as the ManC coach next season...how does a predictive model incorporate that into the performance of ManC players (and therefore the team)
for the remaining games of this season? The answer is it can't!
So why bother with football stats?
Simply because there is value in analysing performance retrospectively with a view to advancement...hasn't that always been the case in the field of human endeavour?
Bienvenue OPTA...
Look, the predictive aspect of stats, in any arena, on any subject, will always be open to debate simply because the patterns upon which they are based are open to
constant change. It therefore follows that the predictions must also follow a pattern of flux.
Given the infinite number of variables in a game of football I find the attempts to predict, for example, final league positions interesting but not something I would bet
the house on!
Pep Guardiola confirmed as the ManC coach next season...how does a predictive model incorporate that into the performance of ManC players (and therefore the team)
for the remaining games of this season? The answer is it can't!
So why bother with football stats?
Simply because there is value in analysing performance retrospectively with a view to advancement...hasn't that always been the case in the field of human endeavour?
Bienvenue OPTA...
Why mention my mother, thats what got my goat?
Ok, i understand now, stupid me-sorry for the overreaction and insult.
