Tottenham Hotstats

[Juicy Sushi]

James raises a really good point (originally from Ted Knutsen) about the current top 4: The difference between the teams, in every model, is within the margin of error. It's a total crapshoot.

Michael's model has favoured Woolwich on xG all year, so I am not surprised. It's likely for the same reason his model's predictions have suffered compared to a few others, namely, his inclusion of payroll as one of the data points. Chelsea's implosion and Liverpool + ManU's mediocrity, coupled with our, Leicester and Wham's success, have run completely against the historical norm regarding the effect of payroll differences on performance. That's probably also what gives Woolwich the favourite status in his model.

Basically, at this point the stats can tell us who's good, who's not, and who's lucky. Beyond that, it's too close to call.

 

[ArtyB]

 

[Mensa]

Volume of posts in the Summer Transfer window thread increase approximately 636% in the 3 days following a defeat as opposed to those following a victory even though it is February

#vitalstatistics

 

[Juicy Sushi]

Volume of posts in the Summer Transfer window thread increase approximately 636% in the 3 days following a defeat as opposed to those following a victory even though it is February

#vitalstatistics

It's the only chance the negative nancies have to climb out from under their rocks.

 

[DeeGee]

Footcharts - Shots on Target

Make that 184 and 82 against.
The highest for and lowest against in the PL

 

[DeeGee]

Volume of posts in the Summer Transfer window thread increase approximately 636% in the 3 days following a defeat as opposed to those following a victory even though it is February

#vitalstatistics

As much as ticket prices to wages :vertna:

 

[DeeGee]

Serious question, as I am not a statistician.
Can you factor in luck to stats. Does each time actually get their fair share of it. Does it really even itself out over a season and can you put a figure on it?
For example a deflected shot goes in/finds an unmarked player who scores can you then determine how many times that would actually happen in a game and factor it in?

 

[Danpovic]

Serious question, as I am not a statistician.
Can you factor in luck to stats. Does each time actually get their fair share of it. Does it really even itself out over a season and can you put a figure on it?
For example a deflected shot goes in/finds an unmarked player who scores can you then determine how many times that would actually happen in a game and factor it in?

Of course you can, it's called the x-factor.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

Serious question, as I am not a statistician.
Can you factor in luck to stats. Does each time actually get their fair share of it. Does it really even itself out over a season and can you put a figure on it?
For example a deflected shot goes in/finds an unmarked player who scores can you then determine how many times that would actually happen in a game and factor it in?

Yes and no. There are a couple of different things. One is PDO, which is an acronym which stands for nothing, but which is a measure of a teams scoring percentage (the % of total shots that are scored) added to the save percentage (% of total shots saved). The two numbers generally sum to around 100%. Shittier teams slightly less, decent teams slightly more. But if a team is on a very hot, or very cold run, the numbers can diverge quite a bit (Liverpool's is around .8 something because Mignolet is horrific). The numbers though are very regressive, so over time, they almost always average out in the long run, which is why people can treat them as a proxy for luck when the number starts to get extreme.

The other measure is expected goals. This takes a variety of data about a shot (like location, type of pass before the shot, angle to goal, current score in the match, etc) and compares that to the same details of all other shots taken in the available data, and based on those, calculates the probability that a given shot would be scored. There are a lot of different people who've built statistical models to do this. The most prominent Spurs fan who does this is Michael Caley, who also published his model online so that everyone could see how he does it: EPL projections and expected goals method: Spurs are good!

Beyond that, there's nothing that's been done publically. Someone may have gone further in private, but we don't know about it.

 

[DeeGee]

Yes and no. There are a couple of different things. One is PDO, which is an acronym which stands for nothing, but which is a measure of a teams scoring percentage (the % of total shots that are scored) added to the save percentage (% of total shots saved). The two numbers generally sum to around 100%. Shittier teams slightly less, decent teams slightly more. But if a team is on a very hot, or very cold run, the numbers can diverge quite a bit (Liverpool's is around .8 something because Mignolet is horrific). The numbers though are very regressive, so over time, they almost always average out in the long run, which is why people can treat them as a proxy for luck when the number starts to get extreme.

The other measure is expected goals. This takes a variety of data about a shot (like location, type of pass before the shot, angle to goal, current score in the match, etc) and compares that to the same details of all other shots taken in the available data, and based on those, calculates the probability that a given shot would be scored. There are a lot of different people who've built statistical models to do this. The most prominent Spurs fan who does this is Michael Caley, who also published his model online so that everyone could see how he does it: EPL projections and expected goals method: Spurs are good!

Beyond that, there's nothing that's been done publically. Someone may have gone further in private, but we don't know about it.

Thanks for taking the time to explain. Appreciate it. Very interesting.

 

[ArtyB]

People being nice to each other...where did it all go wrong in this place?

 

[Juicy Sushi]

For those wanting to get their class envy on:

 

[Juicy Sushi]

And regarding PDO in the wild:

 

[alexwooty]

For those wanting to get their class envy on:

Weird that League 2 peaked in 03-04!

 

[Juicy Sushi]

Ok, this conversation explains just how fucking nuts Spurs are in a nutshell. We are awesome:



Basically, we not only outshoot other teams, and choke off their shots, we make things just about impossible. We've given up 3 shots on target when we've gone a goal down, all bloody year. We've never gone more than 1 goal down.

 

[Guido 🇺🇦]

 

[HeroesAndVillains]

The premier league table which only counts goals scored by English players:

Table with national goals only - Premier League - Transfermarkt

It'a a bit stupid but has a few interesting points.

 

[Juicy Sushi]

James Yorke did a great piece on this Spurs squad, post-NLD, and why, unlike Leicester, this isn't a one-shot deal for us:

Has Pochettino Built A Sustainably Good Tottenham Team?

 

[ArtyB]

Leicester, Tottenham thriving because of their excellence without the ball

 

[Dannyboy]

Leicester, Tottenham thriving because of their excellence without the ball

I like this article. There are few statistical based articles that I like, or value but this isn't really about statistics but tactics.

Could you imagine this side a year ago being so accomplished? I certainly feared for our season, I even had us to finish 6th or 7th quite comfortably off the pace of top four. The coach, as ever deserves huge praise but so do the players too.