James raises a really good point (originally from Ted Knutsen) about the current top 4: The difference between the teams, in every model, is within the margin of error. It's a total crapshoot.
Michael's model has favoured Woolwich on xG all year, so I am not surprised. It's likely for the same reason his model's predictions have suffered compared to a few others, namely, his inclusion of payroll as one of the data points. Chelsea's implosion and Liverpool + ManU's mediocrity, coupled with our, Leicester and Wham's success, have run completely against the historical norm regarding the effect of payroll differences on performance. That's probably also what gives Woolwich the favourite status in his model.
Basically, at this point the stats can tell us who's good, who's not, and who's lucky. Beyond that, it's too close to call.
Michael's model has favoured Woolwich on xG all year, so I am not surprised. It's likely for the same reason his model's predictions have suffered compared to a few others, namely, his inclusion of payroll as one of the data points. Chelsea's implosion and Liverpool + ManU's mediocrity, coupled with our, Leicester and Wham's success, have run completely against the historical norm regarding the effect of payroll differences on performance. That's probably also what gives Woolwich the favourite status in his model.
Basically, at this point the stats can tell us who's good, who's not, and who's lucky. Beyond that, it's too close to call.