If you prefer a doom and gloom narrative, here are reasons we won't get to the top 4:
If we do pull it off, it will be from a weaker base than anyone else. Our poor conversion in the first 10 games of this year sort of puts us behind the 8-ball.
How will it be a weaker base than anyone? We're 2nd in GD and 2nd in goals against. Historically teams with this goal difference have made top 4. That's the whole point of the first set of stats you posted.