The run in....

[Guido 🇺🇦]

There are many different aspects of fatigue though. You've proven we run a lot, but how sharp are we physically and mentally? How up for it are we? How on point are the crosses, the shots, the passes, the decision making and defending?

We gave the ball away a lot against West Ham. We gave the ball away a lot against Woolwich. That's a sign of fatigue. Your fitness and your sharpness, mentally, aren't the same thing.

We were shit against West Ham, our worst game of the season, from back to front. It was also West Ham's best game of the season, the perfect storm, was unfortunate it was against them but it happens.
The scum gave away the ball more than we did, why are you not talking about them being tiered? It was a highly charged derby, with both teams giving each other very little time on the ball, that is why we lost possession and why they lost possession.

I am genuinely not seeing what you are seeing. There is context to his Southampton team (small squad) and context to our drop off last year (small squad due to players frozen out), I have already posted somewhere else on here about those seasons, so will not repeat myself.

Buy into the narrative or not that is the question.

 

[SouthCoastSpur]

They had Vardy needing surgery, and he missed...what was it...1 game?

And that was in the FA cup against us I think, so if anything his injury helped them as they went out.

 

[CheekyPint]

That's very optimistic.

How does your running look? I still think we will finish both you

 

[CheekyPint]

Statistically, what do you think the chances are of us not losing a game before the end of the season?

On a very basic level....

Played 29
Drew 10. We draw every 3 games on average. 9 games left, we're likely to draw 3-4.
Lost 4. We lose every 7 games on average. 9 games left, we're likely to lose at least 1-2.

Out of the 9 games left I'd guess...

Win, Aston Villa
Win, Bournemouth
Draw, Liverpool
Win, United
Draw, Stoke
Win, West Brom
Lose, Chelsea
Draw, Southampton
Win, Newcastle

We'd need Leicester to drop 5 points (the current gap) + 9 points (The predicted points we'll drop), a total of 14 points.

Out of 9 games Leicester have to:
Lose 5 games
Lose 4 games and 1 draw
Lose 3 games and 3 draws
Lose 2 games and 4 draws.

It just isn't going to happen. Out of Leicester's 9 games they will win at least 3-4, making it almost impossible for them to lose the league.

Best case scenario, Leicester lose to Southampton, West Ham, Chelsea. (United are shit, Everton leak goals), meaning they've dropped 9 points. Where do the other 5 we need come from?

18 points would put us on a total of 73. That isn't enough to win the premier league. 78-80 points will win it.

To be fair... this does make sense

 

[Jayc1]

How does your running look? I still think we will finish both you

I like City, I don't support them.

I watch them because it's cheap and it's local.

I can watch a Champions League quarter final for £30. I couldn't even watch Tottenham vs Villa for that, it's £41!

I don't see what the issue is with that, but by all means keep running with that bone.

(To answer your question, I think City will lose another 2-3 games (Woolwich, Chelsea and a smaller team?) and 1-2 draws (West Brom, United?). They won't finish above us. Gap of 5 + minimum of 5 dropped, leaves them needing us to lose 3 and draw 1, which won't happen. They may have to fight for 4th place, which I think we're guaranteed)

 

[trifficTotnum]

We were shit against West Ham, our worst game of the season, from back to front. It was also West Ham's best game of the season, the perfect storm, was unfortunate it was against them but it happens.
The scum gave away the ball more than we did, why are you not talking about them being tiered? It was a highly charged derby, with both teams giving each other very little time on the ball, that is why we lost possession and why they lost possession.

I am genuinely not seeing what you are seeing. There is context to his Southampton team (small squad) and context to our drop off last year (small squad due to players frozen out), I have already posted somewhere else on here about those seasons, so will not repeat myself.

Buy into the narrative or not that is the question.

It is not a fucking narrative. I have watched this pattern of performance play out the last 5 years. Fans just look for a player to scapegoat when we have 500 goal attempts against west brom only to lose 1-0. i saw it the moment we started, heavy misplaced passes, shots on goal (mostly at the keeper) . The epl is the most physically and mentally demanding league in europe.We have a small squad Cant rotate defenders or midfield. Lloris,dier,alderweireld and wimmer start nearly every game. We hardly rotate upfront. I have no clue why Poch is oblivious to this.I can tell you for a fact this team and players will be burned out for the euros, Hopefully not before then.

 

[trifficTotnum]

My thinking is if we REPEAT our team selection policy and rotation for our next 4 in a row (before the international break), we will have the predictable downfall. Especially these two games against Villa and Bournemouth.Bournemouth are second to us in terms of their work rate.We do not want to come the back of a Europa game only to drop points in the league.

 

[ArtyB]

My thinking is if we REPEAT our team selection policy and rotation for our next 4 in a row (before the international break), we will have the predictable downfall. Especially these two games against Villa and Bournemouth.Bournemouth are second to us in terms of their work rate.We do not want to come the back of a Europa game only to drop points in the league.

God loves a trier....and you are very trying...

 

[Gatsby]

I have us winning it by 3 points, with losing to Chelsea away, drawing at Stoke and Liverpool and beating Utd at home.

City second, Leicester third after losing to Chelsea on the last day, Everton at home and drawing with Utd away. Woolwich 4th.

I don't actually think I've put any unrealistic results.

 

[Dannyboy]

Statistically, what do you think the chances are of us not losing a game before the end of the season?

On a very basic level....

Played 29
Drew 10. We draw every 3 games on average. 9 games left, we're likely to draw 3-4.
Lost 4. We lose every 7 games on average. 9 games left, we're likely to lose at least 1-2.

Out of the 9 games left I'd guess...

Win, Aston Villa
Win, Bournemouth
Draw, Liverpool
Win, United
Draw, Stoke
Win, West Brom
Lose, Chelsea
Draw, Southampton
Win, Newcastle

We'd need Leicester to drop 5 points (the current gap) + 9 points (The predicted points we'll drop), a total of 14 points.

Out of 9 games Leicester have to:
Lose 5 games
Lose 4 games and 1 draw
Lose 3 games and 3 draws
Lose 2 games and 4 draws.

It just isn't going to happen. Out of Leicester's 9 games they will win at least 3-4, making it almost impossible for them to lose the league.

Best case scenario, Leicester lose to Southampton, West Ham, Chelsea. (United are shit, Everton leak goals), meaning they've dropped 9 points. Where do the other 5 we need come from?

18 points would put us on a total of 73. That isn't enough to win the premier league. 78-80 points will win it.

I didn't say his post wasn't optimistic, it is but yours is equally pessimistic, isn't it?

 

[spursmalc]

kane finished last season with a post season tour to oz land. Then he had the u21s euros, a full season with us, then the euros in the summer followed by another full season.
Its asking way too much of him.

Agreed and hope Roy decides to have a look at Welbeck, Sturridge and Vardy and give Kane a rest at the end of the month.

 

[El flaco]

Agreed and hope Roy decides to have a look at Welbeck, Sturridge and Vardy and give Kane a rest at the end of the month.

roy hodgson is fucking dick though

 

[n17troops]

I like City, I don't support them.

I watch them because it's cheap and it's local.

I can watch a Champions League quarter final for £30. I couldn't even watch Tottenham vs Villa for that, it's £41!

I don't see what the issue is with that, but by all means keep running with that bone.

(To answer your question, I think City will lose another 2-3 games (Woolwich, Chelsea and a smaller team?) and 1-2 draws (West Brom, United?). They won't finish above us. Gap of 5 + minimum of 5 dropped, leaves them needing us to lose 3 and draw 1, which won't happen. They may have to fight for 4th place, which I think we're guaranteed)

 

[Jayc1]

I didn't say his post wasn't optimistic, it is but yours is equally pessimistic, isn't it?

The stats were they to show it's probable. It's not pessimistic.

 

[palmers_green_yid]

It is not a fucking narrative. I have watched this pattern of performance play out the last 5 years. Fans just look for a player to scapegoat when we have 500 goal attempts against west brom only to lose 1-0. i saw it the moment we started, heavy misplaced passes, shots on goal (mostly at the keeper) . The epl is the most physically and mentally demanding league in europe.We have a small squad Cant rotate defenders or midfield. Lloris,dier,alderweireld and wimmer start nearly every game. We hardly rotate upfront. I have no clue why Poch is oblivious to this.I can tell you for a fact this team and players will be burned out for the euros, Hopefully not before then.

I couldn't give a fuck about the euros. I agree with most of what you wrote. The only way to keep them fresh is to rest players in EL. I don't think Poch is oblivious to it though. I imagine he won't start Kane in Germany, and maybe some other players. He probably knows better than us the state of fitness of players. But my perception too is that they are tired at the moment, and this has often happened to us in the past five years as you say.

 

[paddy spur]

I have us winning it by 3 points, with losing to Chelsea away, drawing at Stoke and Liverpool and beating Utd at home.

City second, Leicester third after losing to Chelsea on the last day, Everton at home and drawing with Utd away. Woolwich 4th.

I don't actually think I've put any unrealistic results.

If Chelsea beating Leicester give us the league then it's never going to happen

 

[Gatsby]

If Chelsea beating Leicester give us the league then it's never going to happen

A lot of people have been saying this, but the way Chelsea are playing they definitely have a shot of getting 5th-6th. If it comes to the last game and they need to win to have a chance of qualifying for EL then they won't go out to lose.

 

[paddy spur]

A lot of people have been saying this, but the way Chelsea are playing they definitely have a shot of getting 5th-6th. If it comes to the last game and they need to win to have a chance of qualifying for EL then they won't go out to lose.

So you think Chelsea would take qualification for the EL and let spurs win the league.

Everyone in that stadium will be shouting for Leicester. And the players will be on the beach.

Have you not meet Chelsea fans.

 

[spursmalc]

Could be John Terry's last match at Stamford Bridge and he will not want to go out a loser and you think chelsea fans will be happy to have Leicester fans chanting Champions at them. They might hate us but if it all comes down to the last match, we are undoubtedly going to have to win our match and I think Chelsea fans will hope Newcastle stop us.
Biggest worry is they play weak team because they are still in the FACup.

 

[AussieYiddo]

In my opinion:

We will get 20 points from our remaining 9 games, leaving us with 75 points
Aston Villa (W), Bournemouth (W), Liverpool (D), United (D), Stoke (W), West Brom (W), Chelsea (L), Southampton (W), Newcastle (W)

Leicester will get 14 points from their remaining 9 games, leaving them with 74 points
Newcastle (W), Palace (W), Southampton (D), Sunderland (L), West Ham (W), Swansea (W), United (L), Everton (D), Chelsea (L)

Woolwich will get 20 points from their remaining 9 games, leaving them with 72 points
Everton (D), West Brom (W), Watford (W), West Ham (L), Palace (W), Sunderland (W), Norwich (W), City (L), Villa (W)

Manchester City will get 24 points from their remaining 10 games, leaving them with 74 points
Norwich (L), United (W), Newcastle (W), Bournemouth (W), West Brom (W), Chelsea (L), Stoke (W), Southampton (W), Woolwich (W), Swansea (W)

But obviously there is no chance of me getting this right with all the twists and turns that will happen before seasons end. Let us hope I am correct.