You're relying on League & FA cup winners to be teams from outside the top 5 then. Given the league cup semi' final draw, I'm sure Utd or City will win that, so we need an outside team to win the FA cup for us to finish 6th and not qualify for EL.
Would I be right in saying that if two different sides from the top four win both cups, then the Europa cup will go down to 7th ?