Based on everyone applying:
All ST holders will be successful
250-299 will be 100% successful
150-199 will have a good chance of getting a ticket
Below 149 it looks unlikely
But this is based on everyone applying, so in reality 130-140 points should get you a ticket. Surprisly quite low boundaries!
based on my calculations any one with over 150 will get a ticket. Even if everyone applied most people with over 135 will get a ticket in my opinion (that is assuming the majority of the 11,000 figure have less then 140 points)
Maybe that is just wishful thinking on my behalf