It's definitely not a lottery. Better teams still tend to win more matches etc. And there is a strong trend in the data that we are losing against the better teams consistently now. While mostly beating the lower half teams. That's not just luck.
The question is can we improve, and buck the recent trend? I don't know, but something has to change if we are going to give ourselves a chance. If we just put out the same team, with the same tactics, I suspect we'll get similar results. Personally feel that Lo Celso coming back could be big. Rodon having a strong end to the season can also help.