Season Run in

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bonaspur23 said:
It's not the definitive measure of whether or not a team is good, but you are wrong if you think it tells nothing.
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It tells only so much like most stats do. Stats are important but not the exact science they make themselves out to be in sport.

Should be taken with a massive pinch of salt. In fact I don’t recall a single xG that had parallels with the correct score in a game. I bet more often than not the xG isn’t the same as the end outcome of a match.
 
Sunday 21`March - Aston Villa (A) - W - confident about this one as well.
International Break - We'll somehow lose this.
Sunday 4 April - Newcastle (A) - Win
Sunday 11 April - ManU (H) - Draw
Saturday 17 April - Everton (A) - Draw
Sunday 25 April - ManCity (Wembley Cup Final) - Genuinely no idea. Could fall between a UCL semi for them
Saturday 1 May - Sheffield United (H) - Win
Saturday 8 May - Leeds U (A) - Draw
Wednesday 12 May - Wolves (H) - Lose (We always seem to lose at home to them)
Saturday 15 May - Aston Villa (H) - Win
Sunday 23 May - Leicester C (A) - Lose

Still to be re-scheduled Southampton (h) - Win
 
Park Lane Mark Twain said:
It tells only so much like most stats do. Stats are important but not the exact science they make themselves out to be in sport.

Should be taken with a massive pinch of salt. In fact I don’t recall a single xG that had parallels with the correct score in a game. I bet more often than not the xG isn’t the same as the end outcome of a match.
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I agree but it does tell you something. Brighton have played great football this season and create many chances but they have rubbish finishers. The eye test of watching them has shown this and it seems the stats are in line with that.
 
Tomo said:
I agree but it does tell you something. Brighton have played great football this season and create many chances but they have rubbish finishers. The eye test of watching them has shown this and it seems the stats are in line with that.
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But it also takes out of account the build up play and movement of those poor finishes that may have helped to create the chances.

Also yet to see an xG that is bang on the money with what the score should be and was. It also doesn’t take into account pressure moments, like a last minute penalty to a rival team compared to one against a team where the pressure isn’t as significant.

I would tend to agree with your response but literally every game I see has a different expected goals to actual goals scored.....surely the inconsistency of that tells us something is up other than it purely being down to Brighton or a teams finishers?
 
TheSpurEst said:
Sorry, but that is objectively funny.
I believe that CL places are given after 38 games are played, not 32.

Specially considering their schedule + involvement in both CL AND FA Cup.

Not saying it will be easy ofc, but it could happen.
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Yeah but you can see why that point is being made - psychologically the players will check out even more once the gap is massive. Jump every challenge in the couple of games prior to the cup final, that kind of rubbish.
 
A-Premier-League-table-ranking-each-sides-run-in-by-difficulty1.jpg
Football365 have ranked the run-in for each team. We're not looking too bad, and the teams directly above us (Chelsea & Leicester) have harder run-ins (both including Man City)...
 
Sir Archibald Crooks said:
Of course it could happen but i don't see it. You talk about form over the season, well our form over the season has been poor and we fail time and again against decent sides and we are scared of our shadow in any crunch game, same as we were last season. Chelsea under Tuchel have shown title challenging form. They don't concede. If they still had Lampard i'd rate our chances a lot higher.
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That aged really five.. Sorry meant to say fine.. Way 🙄🙄😂
 
Since Woolwich at home in December our PL wins have been against:

Leeds
West Brom
Burnley
Fulham
Sheff Utd
Aston Villa (the Grealish-less version)

We've lost against anyone decent we've played, including

Leicester
Liverpool x2
Chelsea
City
W Ham

So if the trend continues we can expect losses to:

Utd
Everton
Leicester

In which case we'd probably need to win the rest (6W,3L,18 points from 9 games, 2points per game) to have any sort of chance of top 4:

Newcastle
Sheff Utd
Villa
Wolves
Southampton
Leeds

It's going to be hard. I'm hoping the lack of European football, and Lo Celso's return can help us find something extra for the run in.
 
Belgrano said:
Since Woolwich at home in December our PL wins have been against:

Leeds
West Brom
Burnley
Fulham
Sheff Utd
Aston Villa (the Grealish-less version)

We've lost against anyone decent we've played, including

Leicester
Liverpool x2
Chelsea
City
W Ham

So if the trend continues we can expect losses to:

Utd
Everton
Leicester

In which case we'd probably need to win the rest (6W,3L,18 points from 9 games, 2points per game) to have any sort of chance of top 4:

Newcastle
Sheff Utd
Villa
Wolves
Southampton
Leeds

It's going to be hard. I'm hoping the lack of European football, and Lo Celso's return can help us find something extra for the run in.
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U can put Wolves in that first bracket
 
Predicting what matches we and our competitors will win/lose is a lottery this season. The only prediction that is clear is that MC will win the league. Have as much chance predicting how many fans will be allowed at our first home match next season as to which matches we will win or lose.
 
Gatsby said:
Sunday 21`March - Aston Villa (A) - W - confident about this one as well.
International Break - We'll somehow lose this.
Sunday 4 April - Newcastle (A) - Win
Sunday 11 April - ManU (H) - Draw
Saturday 17 April - Everton (A) - Draw
Sunday 25 April - ManCity (Wembley Cup Final) - Genuinely no idea. Could fall between a UCL semi for them
Saturday 1 May - Sheffield United (H) - Win
Saturday 8 May - Leeds U (A) - Draw
Wednesday 12 May - Wolves (H) - Lose (We always seem to lose at home to them)
Saturday 15 May - Aston Villa (H) - Win
Sunday 23 May - Leicester C (A) - Lose

Still to be re-scheduled Southampton (h) - Win
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To paraphrase an old Yiddish saying, god laughs at those who predict football results
 
spursmalc said:
Predicting what matches we and our competitors will win/lose is a lottery this season. The only prediction that is clear is that MC will win the league. Have as much chance predicting how many fans will be allowed at our first home match next season as to which matches we will win or lose.
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It's definitely not a lottery. Better teams still tend to win more matches etc. And there is a strong trend in the data that we are losing against the better teams consistently now. While mostly beating the lower half teams. That's not just luck.

The question is can we improve, and buck the recent trend? I don't know, but something has to change if we are going to give ourselves a chance. If we just put out the same team, with the same tactics, I suspect we'll get similar results. Personally feel that Lo Celso coming back could be big. Rodon having a strong end to the season can also help.
 
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