2011/2012 vs 2012/2013

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Not a bad point against QPR. We have gained ground on Woolwich and West Brom whilst maintaining the gap with Everton. Chelsea were always going to nab 3rd from us and with a home game against Southampton I fully expect them to open up a considerable gap.

The point against QPR is also 1 more than we got last year taking us to +4 this season over last.

A lot of talk on twitter about how many points required for 4th spot, 72 points should see us safely in 4th. Last season we won 11, drew 3, and lost 2 of this season's remaining fixtures. If we equal that haul then we will end up with 73 points and most likely 4th place.

Obviously no guarantees, wins against Woolwich at home and WestBrom away don't come easy but we can also gain points against the likes of Man U home and Stoke away.
 
Another massive point at the weekend, the first time we have denied United victory over us in the league for 23 years is the stat I heard this weekend.

The draw gets us 1 more point than we had last season which puts AVB's Tottenham to +5. 9 wins and 2 draws from the next 15 games gets us to 70 points which could be enough for 4th (69 was good enough last season).

The important thing is to win games, we could go undefeated for the rest of the season and miss out on top 4. Quite simply I think we would take 10 wins and 71 points now.

Obviously the points mark is just an estimate, at the end of the day we need to finish above Everton and Woolwich, I am sure we will be glued to their results over the coming weeks.
 
The transfer window has now shut and the squad is the squad. Adebayor should be back for the Newcastle game and Kaboul will likely be available towards the end of the month.

A disappointing night in East Anglia saw us scrape a point with a moment of real cohesion and class from all involved, unfortunately it was only one of few moments. More importantly it was 2 points dropped, 2 points less than we got at Carrow Road last time around and ultimately 1 point less gained from the two Norwich fixtures this season over last. AVB's Tottenham now sit with +3 points over last season fixture-to-fixture.

Everton had nice home game against WBA and closed the gap to just 1 point, Woolwich and Liverpool took a bite out of each other to maintain the status quo with a 3 and 7 point gap respectively. The same can be said for Man City and Chelsea, they only took 1 point when they were heavily favoured to take all 3.

So not the worst round of fixtures, we are still in control of 4th spot, destiny is in our hands but we missed the opportunity to widen the gap over the chasers and close the gap to teams above. We have some reasonable fixtures coming up, we won at WBA last season, anything less than a win at the Hawthorns will deduct from AVB's +3 total and could well place us outside the top 4.
 
A massive 3 points at West Brom, we took all 3 points last year all-be-it in very different circumstances. The result means that we have hit the 45 point mark with 25 games gone and 13 to go. Interestingly enough we had 53 points this time last season whilst the goons sat 10 points behind on 43.

Obviously the fixture order is very different this time around and if we once again compare the seasons fixture-to-fixture then AVB's Tottenham are doing well with +3 points.

24 more points will take us to the same total we achieved last season, that is just 1.84 points required per game for the next 13 games or in football terms 8 wins 5 losses, 6 wins 6 draws 1 loss and a bunch of other combinations.

To put things in perspective Liverpool need roughly 2.5 points per game whilst Everton need 2.07, A*senal 2.15 and Chelski only require 1.76. All these numbers may seem confusing but essentially to achieve two points a game over 13 games you need to do something like this; for every game you draw you need to win one, for every game you lose you need to win two. To give a real life example we can look at our last two fixtures, we drew against Norwich and won v WBA, that takes us to 4 points from two games which is how we want to be plodding along.

Essentially if we keep pace of 2 points a game then we will hit 71 points, our rivals will have to gain points at a greater pace to overtake us.

I know this is not rocket science but for me at least is a different way at looking at our fixtures, we always say that game X is must win and game Y is must not lose but if we win our next two fixtures then the third is almost a free game we can afford to lose and still remain on pace.

Obviously there are no free games, we want to win them all and play at a pace of 3 points a game and as a disclaimer the above maths revolves around a 69 point total securing 4th spot, 72-75 is more likely to guarantee a place in the top 4.

Next up is Newcastle at the lane, the Toon Army will be coming down to London on the back of a 3-2 win against Chelsea and a revived squad full of French players. It will be no easy game but one AVB needs to win if he wishes to keep the +3 points total over last season. We smashed Newcastle last year, the fans were calling for Harry to stay and it was the last time we saw our Tottenham in all their glory before we ran into serious trouble.

Failure to take all 3 points will leave us needing a win at Upton Park on a cold Monday night and perhaps something special in the NLD.
 
A big 3 points at the weekend against a good Newcastle side. We looked good scoring early possible should have been further ahead before Gouffran's deflected shot beat Lloris. Bale saved the day and Ade showed some life at long last.

The win means that AVB retained the 3 points we gained over Newcastle last season all be it in completely different circumstances. That keeps AVB on +3 points which is obviously a positive, +3 is the number I want to be talking about after the NLD, it would mean that we have beaten West Ham and Woolwich and retained points from last season but we wait and see.

We are actually in a glut of 'defensive' games, games we won last season, games that offer AVB no opportunity to gain points over previous efforts and they are not easy games that we tend to win season in and out either. West Brom away, Newcastle home, West Ham away (Bolton last season) and the NLD.

The next opportunity to better last season is Liverpool away, hardly an easy fixture but certainly winnable.

Remaining games where we can better last season
  • Liverpool away - Draw
  • Swansea away - Draw
  • Chelsea away - Draw
  • Man City home - Loss
  • Stoke away - Loss
Looking at the fixtures as a whole I think we have a slightly tougher run in than our rivals, I can see us dropping points in some difficult games, Woolwich and Everton never easy games even at home, Chelsea, Swansea and Liverpool away perhaps even tougher.
Our so called easy fixtures come in May which means we need to survive March and April. If we are in the top 4 come May then I fully expect us to finish there.

Our next fixture is West Ham away, a big derby for them and with Chelsea facing Man City it is a must win for us.
 
Almost a month since I posted in this thread in that time we haven't had an awful lot of league games but we have progressed past Lyon, taken all 3 points at West Ham and won the NLD. It was everything we could hope for and perhaps more.

A couple of posts ago I mentioned the importance of maintaining 2 points a game and that wins over Newcastle and West Ham would mean that the NLD would become a "free" game that we could almost afford to lose. Well we won that game which means we only require 1.6 points per game for the remainder of the season to hit the fabled 69 point mark. Obviously 69 points is no guarantee we should continue to aim for 2 points a game and a 74 point total.

Back to the point of this thread and AVB's Tottenham v last season's side. AVB is still sitting pretty at +3 points, the successful defence of points through February means that the ginger ninja will have a great opportunity to increase that total when we go to Anfield next week.

The reason I started this thread was to judge this year's Tottenham fixture-to-fixture to last year's Tottenham, a lot of criticism was being dished out by various fans the media and so on about how at this stage last season Tottenham were flying and had X amount of points more than this season. Well ladies and gentlemen after winning the NLD Tottenham are sitting on 54 points, at this stage last season we had 53.

AVB's Tottenham have been slow and steady never really making the headlines with huge score wins, you just need to look at our goal difference to see that. We have consistently picked up points even in a bad patch and have put ourselves in a fantastic position to secure champions league football. With just 10 games to go we just need to keep things ticking over and secure something like 16-20 points.
 
Oh dear it's going all wrong! We have hit that sticky patch which always seems to always slow us down at the beginning of the final stretch.

The loss to Liverpool was disappointing after we had put ourself in a winning position, the damage -1 points compared to last season. Hardly a massive blow but we had a chance to make it +2 points and we failed.

Fulham at home, this is the real kicker a game where we only had points to lose and we lost all 3 putting the 2012/2013 season on -1 over the season before it.

8 games to go, 16 points required for the 70 point mark and hopefully top 4. That's 2 points a game required in a season where we have only gained at a rate of 1.8.

To put things in perspective we must now better our overall results from last season in our remaining fixtures this season to make up the 2 point deficit. We must also win games that we did so easily last season against the likes of Everton, Sunderland, and Southampton.

The games we need to find an extra 2 points from:
  • Swansea away - Draw
  • Chelsea away - Draw
  • Man City home - Loss
  • Stoke away - Loss
Swansea and Chelsea are also danger games with respect to the fact we could drop further points.
It's all very nerve racking but To Dare is To Do and we must go out and play with quality and get results in difficult games at the business end of the season if we want to enjoy champions league football again.
 
A fantastic win today and +2 points over last season's visit to the Liberty stadium! We needed to find an extra 2 points from somewhere between today and the end of the season and we managed to do it today, if we can emulate our results from last season in the remaining 7 games then we will hit 70 points which is +1 more than last seasons total.

The points we need to defend are:

  • Everton Home - Win
  • Chelsea Away - Draw
  • Wigan Away - Win
  • Southampton Home (Blackburn) -Win
  • Sunderland Home - Win

Dropping points in any of the above games could leave us short but we do have opportunities to pickup some extra points when we visit Stoke and host Man city.

In a points per game break down we need something like 1.85 but should still be looking to hit an average of 2.0. In English that's something like 4 wins 2 draws, 3 wins 5 draws, 5 wins.
 
Could go either way. We did get fourth last year, it just doesnt feel like we did.
I think if we can get fourth this year, in AVB's first season, that will be a better achievement than last year. I dare not dream of third, but third is in our hands, so totally doable.

In my mind, todays game, last year, we would have lost, and i rate Swansea, so i think its a terific result. I think we have a good chance of getting something from the Man City game this year because they dont have first to play for now, so we can even, perhaps, afford a minor slip up in one of the games you list above.
 
Super Jan Fan said:
Could go either way. We did get fourth last year, it just doesnt feel like we did.
I think if we can get fourth this year, in AVB's first season, that will be a better achievement than last year. I dare not dream of third, but third is in our hands, so totally doable.

In my mind, todays game, last year, we would have lost, and i rate Swansea, so i think its a terific result. I think we have a good chance of getting something from the Man City game this year because they dont have first to play for now, so we can even, perhaps, afford a minor slip up in one of the games you list above.
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I have a sneaky feeling we will gain points against Stoke and City but drop them somewhere else.
 
Everton - This has me the most nervous. I think we will draw.
Chelsea - I think we will get a draw.
Wigan - I think we will win, it will be their third loss in a row and they will go down.
Southampton - If this was coming a week earlier, I would be concerned, but I think they will be mostly safe by the time we meet so will take their foot off the gas and we will win.
Sunderland - we'll beat them, they will also go down.

Will that be enough points?
 
Super Jan Fan said:
Everton - This has me the most nervous. I think we will draw.
Chelsea - I think we will get a draw.
Wigan - I think we will win, it will be their third loss in a row and they will go down.
Southampton - If this was coming a week earlier, I would be concerned, but I think they will be mostly safe by the time we meet so will take their foot off the gas and we will win.
Sunderland - we'll beat them, they will also go down.

Will that be enough points?
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Will leave us on 68, it's all down to how Woolwich and Everton do in their run in. 70 points will most likely get it, 72 will 99% get it. You also need to take into account other games that have not been listed.
 
We need to find 2 points!

The 2-2 draw yesterday left us with just a point, a valuable point at this stage of the season but never the less 2 points short of what we got last season and 2 points short of what we need to hit the 70 point mark this season.

Assuming we win games against Southampton, Wigan, Sunderland and draw against Chelsea away we will finish on 68 points which may not be enough considering the current form of our rivals. We need to find 2 points from somewhere, whether that be a win against Chelsea or draws against Stoke and Man City it doesn't matter, we need to find them from somewhere and win the other games.

AVB is sitting on -1 points compared to last season fixture-to-fixture, we are also -1 point compared to this time last season. 6 games, 12 points, 2 points per game, 4 wins will do it.
 
AryelAbrahami said:
draws against Stoke
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We have to win this one. A draw won't do.

If the scum beat Norwich, Wigan, Fulham, QPR, draw against Newcastle & Everton and lose to MU, they will have 70 points.

We have to beat Southampton, Sunderland, Wigan, Stoke and either win or draw against MC & Chelsea. This will give us 72-76 points (if we don't lose a single game, 71-73 if we lose once either against Chelsea or MC).
 
We all know those rugby qunts will turn up against us and Begovic will have an extra-terrestrial performance, growing an extra arm to pull off a triple penalty save in the last minute to deny us the points.

We'd have 24 shots, 75% possession, 56 corners (all straight to the keeper), etc.

And then they'll score on the counter

#thetruespursway

:vdvcry:
 
ArcspacE said:
We all know those rugby qunts will turn up against us and Begovic will have an extra-terrestrial performance, growing an extra arm to pull off a triple penalty save in the last minute to deny us the points.

We'd have 24 shots, 75% possession, 56 corners (all straight to the keeper), etc.

And then they'll score on the counter

#thetruespursway

:vdvcry:
Click to expand...

I fucking hate Stoke.
 
truetomyself said:
We have to win this one. A draw won't do.

If the scum beat Norwich, Wigan, Fulham, QPR, draw against Newcastle & Everton and lose to MU, they will have 70 points.

We have to beat Southampton, Sunderland, Wigan, Stoke and either win or draw against MC & Chelsea. This will give us 72-76 points (if we don't lose a single game, 71-73 if we lose once either against Chelsea or MC).
Click to expand...

A fair point but I fear anything above the 70 point mark is beyond us, at the moment just hitting that 70 point mark is going to be tough. We have never really blown teams away and won games easily this season, we seem to always win by the odd goal playing conservative football always open to a sucker punch which can take the points away from us. Even the so called easy teams will be tough. I think we will hit 68-71 points, just gotta hope that its enough for top 4.
 
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