10 Wins From 16 Should Be Enough

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Similar calculations were done last year and even though we finished on record 72 points - we still missed out

Let's wait and see what happens - there are plenty of quality teams around us in the battle for 4th. Look at the CL for example - Napoli won 4 games and still couldn't finish 2nd in their group on 12 points - chances of that are probably 1/500
 
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See the 'Don't Panic' thread...


Honestly think that you need to be thinking nearer to 80 points to be certain of top 4.

When you hit that then you can pretty much relax.

Luckily we have players coming back from injury at the right time and players finding form.

We seems to be getting results against the teams we should be beating... We need to make sure we pick up points against the team around us.

Oddly it isn't the 5-0 6-0 results that will cost us... It's the West Ham, West Brom and Newcastle games... Just one win... One goal even against West Brom and one at Newcastle and we'd be fourth...

... If we had won all three we'd be top.

I appreciate it's all if and buts and you could say the same about any team, but it is these results that really did the damage for AVB... No one likes a heavy loss, but we would could have had those losses and still be top four.

I just hope we don't get spanked by City. Happy with a point. We need to be solid in defence and try and really get at them... Hopefully we can play Chirches and Vertonghen at the back. Vertonghen and Sandro coming back from injury could be huge
 
Play good, maybe 32, play average, maybe 25/26. I do think 4th will be a record pts tally this year. As somebody else said on here - can everyone just stop fucking winning.

Liverpool and ManYoo dropped points this weekend which was excellent news for us..
I'm not looking at Arse Man City or Chelsea anymore, but ManYoo,, Liverpool and Everton are the results which will mean the most to us come the end of the season.. Two of that three dropped points plus Everton are playing tonigh, if they drop points as well then it's been a brilliant round of results.
 

SouthStand Billy

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IMO and historically 10 wins or 30pts wins/draws mixed from the next 16 games should be enough for 4th spot.
10 wins or 30pts wins/draws mixed gives us 73 pts which is normally enough.
9 wins or 27pts wins/draws mixed has been enough on several occasions but this year is far tighter.

Can you see 30 pts from the following? I can......

Man City H.
Hull A.
Everton H
Newcastle A
Norwich A
Cardiff H.
Chelsea A
Woolwich H
Soton H
Liverpool A
Sunderland H
West Brom A
Fulham H
Stoke A
West Ham A
Villa H
 
I don't think we should exit the Europa deliberately. I do think it should play second fiddle to the premier league in all games except a final though. We have enough talented youth and fringe players not getting enough minutes that the Europa will be a good way for Timmie to keep everyone happy. We are already out of the other cup competitions don't forget, so it is only these two.
 
we need to do the following things to nail down a top 4 finish

1) exit the europa league (might ruffle the feathers of europa league apologists)
2)Keep Adebayor injury free and motivated ( do not risk him when necessary)
3)Keep eriksen injury free too (Another vital goal scorer and creator)
4)Patch up the crack in our defence,Bring in a decent central defender ( lescott?)
5) Bring in a decent left back (Ekotto back?)
6)Do not reduce our depth, we have returned to one striker and rightfully so, means our attacking midfielders will get a shout
7) Reintroduce Lamela ,this could be our ace under the sleeve
We have enough depth in our squad to fight in Europe and in the league. Why do we keep blaming that tournament when Champions League teams have enough in them to fight on both fronts?

BAE probably won't come back. I think that I remember Sherwood saying something like that in a press conference.

No one will come in either. Maybe a striker on loan, but otherwise it will be more yoof that will be promoted I think.
 
Rubbish, we do not have enough depth to rotate the squad completely. Our long haul trips to Russia,Modolva and Norway has disrupted the preparation of weekend games, not to mention the fans are negative because they have to watch all the other teams win on saturday. Playing wednesday night in italy/spain is not the same as playing thursday nights in some brothel on the other side of europe.
Well the majority of the shit sides who play on the other side of the world are out now, which leaves us with the ones who play in France, Spain, Germany, etc. Kane will probably get thrown in at the deep end for EL games in the style of Bentaleb, so we have some cover for up front. Plus we have Defoe until March. We have the potential to fight on both fronts.
 
These thread always seem to be quickly followed by us ballsing up a few games


it might have more to do with the time of the season that people start to think about the finishing line, rather than them jinxing our form.
 
Or is it that the belief is that the gap between the top 6 or7 and everyone else is getting bigger?

That is my thinking. The league used to be subdivided, for example mini competitions of 1st-3rd, 4th-7th, 8th-11th, 12th-15th, 16th-20th.
It was quite clearly defined, and you could watch a team progress or regress through the layers.

Now, IMO, you have 1st-3rd, 4th-8th, 9th-20th. There is a divide from above midtable to the bottom. Look at the table, 20 points between 1st and 9th, 6 between 10th and 20th (and 7 between 9th and 10th)

Villa are tenth and have no comfort in that midtable position whatsoever, in a few of weeks they could be sacking their manager for falling to the relegation zone...

There is a chasm between the top teams and the bottom, there never used to be such a gulf IMHO.
 
One game at a time please but 73 pts won't be enough imo remember we will always need to add an additional point to avoid the goal diff position when on same pts as other teams.
 
I am not worried about Everton. If we finish above Pool we will get 4th, IMHO.

10 wins will do it as we should get 2 draws at least as well, making 75 points

4 points from our next 2 games and it is looking good

But IIRC, Utd are still in the CL though .....
 
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Unique up until last season, but there's lots of competition at the top of the table now - more than last year IMO.



We don't need to monitor anybody's results. There's no point. We just need to win as many points as possible and hope its enough.
Yes, that's pretty obvious, but it's only natural to look at the teams who are likely to be challenging us for 4th. I'm going to take a bit more interest in LFC, MU, Everton's results than Fulham or WH for example.
 
Everton are really good this year. They are overachieving but only because their team of players aren't as capable as some other teams including us. They are set up well, believe is good, tactics are good, it's a team. But I think they will fall short in a similar way to how Newcastle did a couple of seasons ago.

Liverpool are very similar to Everton this year, but the difference there is that they do have a world class forward in Suarez. He is a cunt, but he is a great footballer and if he stays injury free then they will continue to push us hard for fourth.

United aren't a serious threat this year IMO. They have a few very good players, but they have injuries, some of the best players have aged, a lack of belief, lots of pressure, bad form and a manager who isn't big enough for the role.

I think we are favourites personally. I'd be pretty confident of getting 31 points out of the next 16 and I think we will need that extra point this year because it is going to be tight. We have good form, a big squad, talent in most positions, big players to come back from injury soon, a striker who is scoring goals. The only question for me is whether our manager is good enough - so far, he has suggested that he is. But there are 16 games to go so we will have to see how he does.

Woolwich are likely to get third I think - but you never know, they could slip up badly if things start going against them and they see the tropies disapearing again for at least another season.

Man City H - 0
Hull A - 3
Everton H - 0
Newcastle A - 1
Norwich A - 3
Cardiff H - 3
Chelsea A - 1
Woolwich H - 0
Soton H -3
Liverpool A - 1
Sunderland H - 3
West Brom A - 3
Fulham H - 3
Stoke A - 3
West Ham A - 3 (sending these fuckers down)
Villa H - 1

edit: Also, haven't they changed the CL qualification rules to include the 4th team now, even if another team outside the top four win it. I thought I read that they changed that so that it won't happen again?
 
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Utd and Liverpool are similar in that they each have outstanding front pairs and a hell of a lot depends on that.
If Suarez/Sturridge or RVP/Rooney get injured I expect their team to fall away, if they dont I expect them to be favourites for 4th.

Ive fully expected Everton to fall away and yet they havent. They have lost only 2 all season, remarkable, and have strengthened smartly so far.

McGeady and Traore (assuming he signs) are very good players who can help Everton to results - so while I dont think it likely they will be there come the end of the season I think it would be wrong to rule them out.

We have some serious competition.
 
we need to do the following things to nail down a top 4 finish

1) exit the europa league (might ruffle the feathers of europa league apologists)
2)Keep Adebayor injury free and motivated ( do not risk him when necessary)
3)Keep eriksen injury free too (Another vital goal scorer and creator)
4)Patch up the crack in our defence,Bring in a decent central defender ( lescott?)
5) Bring in a decent left back (Ekotto back?)
6)Do not reduce our depth, we have returned to one striker and rightfully so, means our attacking midfielders will get a shout
7) Reintroduce Lamela ,this could be our ace under the sleeve
 
Come on levy, spunk out 30m on benteke and lets get top 4 nail down faster than a bimbo from Essex. A lot of you think we will steam roll over a lot of these sides but its far from the case. will have to grind out some results here and there.
 
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