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It's only been 5 games, so everything can be taken with a grain of salt, etc. BUT, some patterns are starting to form that make for interesting reading.


Like last year, we are showing strong signs of being one of the contenders, even if the performances thus far have been kind of flat. The biggest difference is that last year we opened with a loss, 3 draws and then a win. This time, we're earning points from the off.

Happily, Woolwich seem to be in real trouble. Yeah, yeah, they're in fourth. But they are simply not creating chances at anywhere near a normal rate. They've had a bunch of stuff bounce their way so far, and things generally don't continue like that over a season. Either they fix things fast, or this could be the season they finally fall apart.

Also, Watford have now had 2 great results, are flying high, and putting points on the board early, which will serve them well come relegation-fight time. But a word of warning:

That kind of conversion % will cool off in all likelihood. And when it does...

Janssen has blown a few early chances, but it's interesting that this also follows his pattern from last year, where he struggled to score initially for AZ, but based on the quality of his shooting, should've been well up there. I think we should take heart, he's looking like he will prove decent.
 
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Not sure if already posted, but I find this interesting.

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Klopp gegenpressing the shit out of the matches.
Pep having everyone run around for his positional play.
Poch a mix of the above.
Mourinho still stuck in 2004.
 
Good stuff Jsus...a few points guys (and gals)....
I'm not a stat fanatic, most of the time I simply use various sites after the match to confirm what I thought I saw, for the simple reason, that what
the eye sees is not always what the brain recalls.
Secondly, we have a coach who is of the 'new generation' and there is, therefore, a purpose behind the instruction to "run abaht abit" and I find it interesting to study
the patterns our stats can reveal in an effort to understand Poch and his methods.
Lastly, it's comforting (at least for me) to back an opinion with facts.
 
Great article, but a couple of things.

- Call me old fashioned, but this whole "expected goal difference" makes no sense to me.
- I know we've only got 2 more points this year from last, but I believe that is more impressive than 2 points improvement, even before you look at performances. And that is because so many of the mid-table teams have improved massively this year (Leicester, Watford, Palace, Stoke, West Ham primarily). Overall, I think the top end will see lower points totals than previous seasons, with the middle ground teams earning more. In other words, the league will compact slightly, and for that reason, any extra point earned by us at the top end is probably worth 2 extra points in real terms.
 
Bloody hell.....
Look, the predictive aspect of stats, in any arena, on any subject, will always be open to debate simply because the patterns upon which they are based are open to
constant change. It therefore follows that the predictions must also follow a pattern of flux.
Given the infinite number of variables in a game of football I find the attempts to predict, for example, final league positions interesting but not something I would bet
the house on!
Pep Guardiola confirmed as the ManC coach next season...how does a predictive model incorporate that into the performance of ManC players (and therefore the team)
for the remaining games of this season? The answer is it can't!
So why bother with football stats?
Simply because there is value in analysing performance retrospectively with a view to advancement...hasn't that always been the case in the field of human endeavour?
Bienvenue OPTA...
 
Guido said:
Don't really need stats to tell us that a win against Citeh and a draw between the other two pretenders improves our chances no end. But here are all the permutations and possible consequences:
Click to expand...

More than anything, it shows that a draw in Woolwich-Leicester is the best result for us in terms of title chances
 
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