The model versus Paddy's gut

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Gut or model

  • Gut

    Votes: 10 52.6%

  • Model

    Votes: 9 47.4%
  • Total voters
    19
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Juicy Sushi said:
As I said, I don't have a model of my own. I don't have the time to do something like that properly. I do know people who do, and I do post what they have to say about their models or things they notice in the data.

In the Pochettino thread I posted, after a similar conversation with the redoubtable Spursinho Spursinho four different possible final results, based on the data after 11 games:
- the current points per game projected over 38 games (PPG)
- the current goal difference (GD)
- the current ratio of shots on target (the difference between shots on target taken vs allowed) (source: Objective Football: 2015/16 Shot Ratios) (SoTR)
- the current order of expected goal differential using Paul Riley’s model (| Tableau Public) (xG)

----PPG------------------GD---------------SoTR----------xG
1.--City (86)-------------City--------------City-------------City
2.--Woolwich(86)------Woolwich-------Spurs----------Woolwich
3.--Leicester (76)------Spurs------------Soton----------Spurs
4.--Man Utd (73)-------Man Utd--------Liverpool------Soton
5.--Spurs (69)-----------WHam----------Woolwich-----Palace
6.--WHam (69)---------Soton------------Man Utd-------Liverpool
7.--Liverpool (59)------Leicester--------Swansea------Swansea
8.--Soton (59)----------Everton----------Leicester-------Man Utd
9.--Everton (55)--------Palace-----------Palace----------Leicester
10.-Palace (55)---------Liverpool--------WHam----------WHam
11.-Watford (55)--------Watford----------Norwich--------WBA
12.-WBA (48)------------Swansea--------Bournemouth-Stoke
13.-Swansea (45)-------Stoke------------Everton---------Everton
14.-Stoke (45)------------WBA-------------Newcastle-----Aston Villa
15.-Chelsea (38)---------Chelsea---------Watford--------Watford
16.-Norwich (31)---------Norwich----------WBA-----------Norwich
17.-Bournemouth (28)--Newcastle-------Chelsea-------Newcastle
18.-Newcastle (24)------Aston Villa-------Stoke----------Bournemouth
19.-Sunderland (21)-----Sunderland-----Aston Villa----Chelsea
20.-Aston Villa (14)------Bournemouth---Sunderland---Sunderland
*since the original post, Villa sacked Tactics Tim. That will probably lead to better numbers for them, as they will no longer be using the equivalent of the proverbial infinite number of monkeys to run the team.

Since you want me to guesstimate my own table, here goes (I look forward to getting this all gloriously wrong):

1. City
2. Woolwich
3. Spurs
4. Man Utd
-----------------
5. Soton
6. Liverpool
7. Chelsea
-------------------
8. Leicester
9. Everton
10. WHam
11. Palace
12. Stoke
13. Swansea
14. Aston Villa
15. Sunderland
16. WBA
17. Watford
-------------------
18. Norwich
19. Newcastle
20. Bournemouth
Click to expand...
Good man we're on. I don't knowwhat our current points are will have to work it out and we'll joke about how hopeless wrong we both probably get it.

If any one knows the current wage spend table that might make an instructive comparasion
 
paddygspur said:
Good man we're on. I don't knowwhat our current points are will have to work it out and we'll joke about how hopeless wrong we both probably get it.

If any one knows the current wage spend table that might make an instructive comparasion
Click to expand...
I can't post it from work, but the 2014-15 wage table would be in the Swiss Ramble's latest article on West Ham.
 
What the fuck is this?
Anyhow

  1. Tottenham
  2. Man City
  3. Woolwich
  4. Leicester
  5. Man Utd
  6. Southampton
  7. Liverpool
  8. West Ham
  9. Everton
  10. Crystal Palace
  11. Chelsea
  12. Stoke
  13. Watford
  14. Swansea
  15. West Brom
  16. Newcastle
  17. Aston Villa
  18. Sunderland
  19. Norwich
  20. Bournemouth
I expect more than just SawboSpur1882 SawboSpur1882 to be sucking my dick come May.
 
Your projected tables are still very similar. Relatively few major disagreements there. 6 complete matches, and about half the table where you only differ in your estimates by a single spot.
 
VirginiaSpur said:
Your projected tables are still very similar. Relatively few major disagreements there. 6 complete matches, and about half the table where you only differ in your estimates by a single spot.
Click to expand...
Which is probably why we'll both be ridiculously wrong.

The trouble is that a lot of teams seem to be fairly similar to each other in skill level, so it'll be a real dogfight to see where they finish. And there are a couple of oddballs who have been real under/over-achievers to date, and their fall/rise will be the big stories over the rest of the season (I mean Chelsea, West Ham, Leicester and Crystal Palace).
 
Juicy Sushi said:
As I said, I don't have a model of my own. I don't have the time to do something like that properly. I do know people who do, and I do post what they have to say about their models or things they notice in the data.

In the Pochettino thread I posted, after a similar conversation with the redoubtable Spursinho Spursinho four different possible final results, based on the data after 11 games:
- the current points per game projected over 38 games (PPG)
- the current goal difference (GD)
- the current ratio of shots on target (the difference between shots on target taken vs allowed) (source: Objective Football: 2015/16 Shot Ratios) (SoTR)
- the current order of expected goal differential using Paul Riley’s model (| Tableau Public) (xG)

----PPG------------------GD---------------SoTR----------xG
1.--City (86)-------------City--------------City-------------City
2.--Woolwich(86)------Woolwich-------Spurs----------Woolwich
3.--Leicester (76)------Spurs------------Soton----------Spurs
4.--Man Utd (73)-------Man Utd--------Liverpool------Soton
5.--Spurs (69)-----------WHam----------Woolwich-----Palace
6.--WHam (69)---------Soton------------Man Utd-------Liverpool
7.--Liverpool (59)------Leicester--------Swansea------Swansea
8.--Soton (59)----------Everton----------Leicester-------Man Utd
9.--Everton (55)--------Palace-----------Palace----------Leicester
10.-Palace (55)---------Liverpool--------WHam----------WHam
11.-Watford (55)--------Watford----------Norwich--------WBA
12.-WBA (48)------------Swansea--------Bournemouth-Stoke
13.-Swansea (45)-------Stoke------------Everton---------Everton
14.-Stoke (45)------------WBA-------------Newcastle-----Aston Villa
15.-Chelsea (38)---------Chelsea---------Watford--------Watford
16.-Norwich (31)---------Norwich----------WBA-----------Norwich
17.-Bournemouth (28)--Newcastle-------Chelsea-------Newcastle
18.-Newcastle (24)------Aston Villa-------Stoke----------Bournemouth
19.-Sunderland (21)-----Sunderland-----Aston Villa----Chelsea
20.-Aston Villa (14)------Bournemouth---Sunderland---Sunderland
*since the original post, Villa sacked Tactics Tim. That will probably lead to better numbers for them, as they will no longer be using the equivalent of the proverbial infinite number of monkeys to run the team.

Since you want me to guesstimate my own table, here goes (I look forward to getting this all gloriously wrong):

1. City
2. Woolwich
3. Spurs
4. Man Utd
-----------------
5. Soton
6. Liverpool
7. Chelsea
-------------------
8. Leicester
9. Everton
10. WHam
11. Palace
12. Stoke
13. Swansea
14. Aston Villa
15. Sunderland
16. WBA
17. Watford
-------------------
18. Norwich
19. Newcastle
20. Bournemouth
Click to expand...

Isn't the table you came up "just" your guess? It seems off from all of the four you lined up above; just looking at Chelsea. In which case, it kinda defeats the purpose of it being Paddy's gut vs. a calculation.

I'll take Riley's projection right now. Do you know whether he made one at this point of the season last year? Just to see he close, he came...
 
Kafkaesque said:
Isn't the table you came up "just" your guess? It seems off from all of the four you lined up above; just looking at Chelsea. In which case, it kinda defeats the purpose of it being Paddy's gut vs. a calculation.

I'll take Riley's projection right now. Do you know whether he made one at this point of the season last year? Just to see he close, he came...
Click to expand...
Paul didn't publish one that I can recall. Michael Caley did, and the year before that as well, but he's also re-done his model each year to incorporate additional data that he thinks will make it more accurate.

And yes, it's my guess. As I had said more than once, I don't have a model of my own, I share here what other people do, so that those who are interested can see it.
 
paddygspur said:
Computer says

Premier League table: Super computer predicts final BPL table for 2015/16 *NOVEMBER UPDATE!*
Click to expand...
I don't see how any supercomputer cranking numbers from actual results this season could possibly still be that generous to Chelsea.

Just looking at that table, it's pretty obvious that a major component of their model is simply a pretty strong weighted average effect favoring the traditional powerhouses.

Looking at actual shot statistics, it's actually looking like Chelsea is actually right where they should be, and that United could regress even more. Chelsea is taking an average number of poor shots on goal, while United is taking very few, but that are quite good. This should indicate that Chelsea simply aren't playing well, while United's expected results should be quite volatile.

And, people that are actually watching them play are actually thinking upon similar lines. The reason why Mourinho hasn't got any favorable play in the media is because his complaints about referees have fallen on deaf ears, because everybody agrees that Chelsea simply aren't playing well.

 
Juicy Sushi said:
As I said, I don't have a model of my own. I don't have the time to do something like that properly. I do know people who do, and I do post what they have to say about their models or things they notice in the data.

In the Pochettino thread I posted, after a similar conversation with the redoubtable Spursinho Spursinho four different possible final results, based on the data after 11 games:
- the current points per game projected over 38 games (PPG)
- the current goal difference (GD)
- the current ratio of shots on target (the difference between shots on target taken vs allowed) (source: Objective Football: 2015/16 Shot Ratios) (SoTR)
- the current order of expected goal differential using Paul Riley’s model (| Tableau Public) (xG)

----PPG------------------GD---------------SoTR----------xG
1.--City (86)-------------City--------------City-------------City
2.--Woolwich(86)------Woolwich-------Spurs----------Woolwich
3.--Leicester (76)------Spurs------------Soton----------Spurs
4.--Man Utd (73)-------Man Utd--------Liverpool------Soton
5.--Spurs (69)-----------WHam----------Woolwich-----Palace
6.--WHam (69)---------Soton------------Man Utd-------Liverpool
7.--Liverpool (59)------Leicester--------Swansea------Swansea
8.--Soton (59)----------Everton----------Leicester-------Man Utd
9.--Everton (55)--------Palace-----------Palace----------Leicester
10.-Palace (55)---------Liverpool--------WHam----------WHam
11.-Watford (55)--------Watford----------Norwich--------WBA
12.-WBA (48)------------Swansea--------Bournemouth-Stoke
13.-Swansea (45)-------Stoke------------Everton---------Everton
14.-Stoke (45)------------WBA-------------Newcastle-----Aston Villa
15.-Chelsea (38)---------Chelsea---------Watford--------Watford
16.-Norwich (31)---------Norwich----------WBA-----------Norwich
17.-Bournemouth (28)--Newcastle-------Chelsea-------Newcastle
18.-Newcastle (24)------Aston Villa-------Stoke----------Bournemouth
19.-Sunderland (21)-----Sunderland-----Aston Villa----Chelsea
20.-Aston Villa (14)------Bournemouth---Sunderland---Sunderland
*since the original post, Villa sacked Tactics Tim. That will probably lead to better numbers for them, as they will no longer be using the equivalent of the proverbial infinite number of monkeys to run the team.

Since you want me to guesstimate my own table, here goes (I look forward to getting this all gloriously wrong):

1. City
2. Woolwich
3. Spurs
4. Man Utd
-----------------
5. Soton
6. Liverpool
7. Chelsea
-------------------
8. Leicester
9. Everton
10. WHam
11. Palace
12. Stoke
13. Swansea
14. Aston Villa
15. Sunderland
16. WBA
17. Watford
-------------------
18. Norwich
19. Newcastle
20. Bournemouth
Click to expand...
Jesus we both need villa to do a lot and liecester are hanging around like a bad smell
 
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