Juicy Sushi
loves his stats. Iam bit old school and think a lot of stats are just fancy ways of telling you what you already knew. So we had a bash about his predictive goal method what ever that actually is and I am set him a challenge my gut top 6 versus his PGM. For the end of the season. 3 points for correct place 2 points for a plus or minus error of 1 and 1 point for a plus or minus error of 2
My top 6 are
Man city
Woolwich
Spurs
Man u
Liverpool
Chelsea
Juicy Sushi
top six are
Man city
Woolwich
Spurs
Man u
Southampton
Liverpool
He has till tomorrow to run his slide rule and lock in although there's not much between us.
Current rankings gut 10 points model 12 points
As I said, I don't have a model of my own. I don't have the time to do something like that properly. I do know people who do, and I do post what they have to say about their models or things they notice in the data.
In the Pochettino thread I posted, after a similar conversation with the redoubtable
Spursinho
four different possible final results, based on the data after 11 games:
- the current points per game projected over 38 games (PPG)
- the current goal difference (GD)
- the current ratio of shots on target (the difference between shots on target taken vs allowed) (source:
Objective Football: 2015/16 Shot Ratios) (SoTR)
- the current order of expected goal differential using Paul Riley’s model (
| Tableau Public) (xG)
----PPG------------------GD---------------SoTR----------xG
1.--City (86)-------------City--------------City-------------City
2.--Woolwich(86)------Woolwich-------Spurs----------Woolwich
3.--Leicester (76)------Spurs------------Soton----------Spurs
4.--Man Utd (73)-------Man Utd--------Liverpool------Soton
5.--Spurs (69)-----------WHam----------Woolwich-----Palace
6.--WHam (69)---------Soton------------Man Utd-------Liverpool
7.--Liverpool (59)------Leicester--------Swansea------Swansea
8.--Soton (59)----------Everton----------Leicester-------Man Utd
9.--Everton (55)--------Palace-----------Palace----------Leicester
10.-Palace (55)---------Liverpool--------WHam----------WHam
11.-Watford (55)--------Watford----------Norwich--------WBA
12.-WBA (48)------------Swansea--------Bournemouth-Stoke
13.-Swansea (45)-------Stoke------------Everton---------Everton
14.-Stoke (45)------------WBA-------------Newcastle-----Aston Villa
15.-Chelsea (38)---------Chelsea---------Watford--------Watford
16.-Norwich (31)---------Norwich----------WBA-----------Norwich
17.-Bournemouth (28)--Newcastle-------Chelsea-------Newcastle
18.-Newcastle (24)------Aston Villa-------Stoke----------Bournemouth
19.-Sunderland (21)-----Sunderland-----Aston Villa----Chelsea
20.-Aston Villa (14)------Bournemouth---Sunderland---Sunderland
*since the original post, Villa sacked Tactics Tim. That will probably lead to better numbers for them, as they will no longer be using the equivalent of the proverbial infinite number of monkeys to run the team.
Since you want me to guesstimate my own table, here goes (I look forward to getting this all gloriously wrong):
1. City
2. Woolwich
3. Spurs
4. Man Utd
-----------------
5. Soton
6. Liverpool
7. Chelsea
-------------------
8. Leicester
9. Everton
10. WHam
11. Palace
12. Stoke
13. Swansea
14. Aston Villa
15. Sunderland
16. WBA
17. Watford
-------------------
18. Norwich
19. Newcastle
20. Bournemouth
