2013/14 Spurs League Prediction

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Clarky said:
No reason why we shouldn't be.
A more scientific way of looking at things is that we have played 21 and returned 40 points. So we've averaged 2.05 points per game. If we continue at the same ratio for the rest of the season that sees us getting 77.9 points. Which pretty much guarantees top 3...normally. The only thing I worry about is this season there are so many teams with high points totals so far. It could be the hardest year to win the title / get top 4 as in the year when you will need the most points.
For all the doom and gloom this season, the flat atmospheres, the uninspiring football, the lack of goals, we are well on course our best ever league season since the format changed to 3 points for a win and 20 teams. Strange times.
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Hey Clarky check the maths 21 games 40 points gives u a trend of 72 points, same as last yr and not enough. I love doing the trends and maths of averages but we are snookered if the teams above us also finish on their trends.
We need to not maintain, but improve on our outcomes. My gut concern is that the continued addn games we play will hinder us compared to Pool and Everton who only remain in the FA cup. Plus also we need to score more goals - thus we need another striker in the Jan trf.
At the moment i am not as confident as others relying upon trends. We simply must maintain not losing to teams below us but also beat Pool and Everton. Can we do that atm ?
Unless we get a quality striker, i can't see us getting higher than 6th or 7th with everton most likely for 7th and perhaps only 2/3 points between us, manu and pool. Our goal diff will obviously hurt us at year end.
 
After round 21 I am forecasting with the head rather than the heart.
1st - Man C
2nd - Chelscum
3rd - Gooners
4th - Pool
5th - ManU
6th - Spurs
7th - Everton
 
Last 5 matches (W-L-D-W-W).

Spurs got 1 point less than predicted vs Man City, 2 points less than predicted against Hull City, and 2 points more than expected against Everton. Total net loss of 1 point.

WIN (24 Matches)
Home: Swansea City, Norwich City, Hull City, Stoke City, Crystal Palace, Everton, Cardiff City, Southampton, Sunderland, Fulham, Aston Villa
Away: Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Sunderland, Southampton, Manchester United, Swansea City, Newcastle United, Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, West Ham United

DRAW (7 Matches)
Home: Chelsea, Manchester United, West Bromwich Albion, Woolwich
Away: Everton, Hull City, Liverpool,

LOSE (7 Matches)
Home: West Ham United, Newcastle United, Liverpool, Manchester City
Away: Woolwich, Manchester City, Chelsea

Total 79 Points

The next six matches are tough, but to keep the predicted pace only requires 11 points (3-2-1).

Norwich City (A)
Cardiff City (H)
Chelsea (A)
Woolwich (H)
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)

This can go a few different ways, but so long as Spurs take care of business in the three easier games they will be set up to make a run in the final six matches, which are all "easier" winnable matches. Without getting too optimistic, I could definitely see Spurs making a legitimate threat for a top 4 spot, despite being written off many times this season.
 
YidNYC said:
Norwich City (A)
Cardiff City (H)
Chelsea (A)
Woolwich (H)
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)

This can go a few different ways, but so long as Spurs take care of business in the three easier games they will be set up to make a run in the final six matches, which are all "easier" winnable matches. Without getting too optimistic, I could definitely see Spurs making a legitimate threat for a top 4 spot, despite being written off many times this season.
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I think the two in bold are our 'decisive' games. 6 pointers, if you will.

No team will make a habit of dropping points, so it's important to take them all where possible - if we can do that for those two games (banana-skins thus far this season) then it'll make a different. Lose them both and we might just see the gap closed right up again :/
 
Great win tonight, undoubtedly a massive 3 points. If we can take this forward onto Norwich and Cardiff we can afford a defeat (regrettably) against Chelsea. The game against Woolwich and Liverpool are crucial either way, getting 4 points out of these two games could set us up for a grand stand finish. I just hope next season i'll be singing "There were 10 Woolwich points in the gap.." Give Woolwich a taste of their own medicine.
 
YidNYC said:
Last 5 matches (W-L-D-W-W).

Spurs got 1 point less than predicted vs Man City, 2 points less than predicted against Hull City, and 2 points more than expected against Everton. Total net loss of 1 point.

WIN (24 Matches)
Home: Swansea City, Norwich City, Hull City, Stoke City, Crystal Palace, Everton, Cardiff City, Southampton, Sunderland, Fulham, Aston Villa
Away: Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Sunderland, Southampton, Manchester United, Swansea City, Newcastle United, Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, West Ham United

DRAW (7 Matches)
Home: Chelsea, Manchester United, West Bromwich Albion, Woolwich
Away: Everton, Hull City, Liverpool,

LOSE (7 Matches)
Home: West Ham United, Newcastle United, Liverpool, Manchester City
Away: Woolwich, Manchester City, Chelsea

Total 79 Points

The next six matches are tough, but to keep the predicted pace only requires 11 points (3-2-1).

Norwich City (A)
Cardiff City (H)
Chelsea (A)
Woolwich (H)
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)

This can go a few different ways, but so long as Spurs take care of business in the three easier games they will be set up to make a run in the final six matches, which are all "easier" winnable matches. Without getting too optimistic, I could definitely see Spurs making a legitimate threat for a top 4 spot, despite being written off many times this season.
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Thanks mate.

Feeling quietly confident, solid 6 points against Norwich and Cardiff should set us up nicely going in to the 2 London derbies.
 
If you wanna play around with some predictions on league finishes like so:
leafinpreex.jpg


It's not the prettiest but I made a Microsoft Excel file. (Just enter point result predictions and it will add up for you.)
:lennonlol:

LeagueFinishPrediction.xlsx
 
Swhap said:
If you wanna play around with some predictions on league finishes like so:
leafinpreex.jpg


It's not the prettiest but I made a Microsoft Excel file. (Just enter point result predictions and it will add up for you.)
:lennonlol:

LeagueFinishPrediction.xlsx
Click to expand...

Man City 84
Woolwich 83
Chelsea 82
Tottenham 77
Liverpool 76
Man Utd 71
Everton 69

COYS!

Interesting thing: Whatever I put in for our other games within reason, it seems to almost always swing on what happens when we go to Anfield. I've put down a draw, but if we were to lose there I'd say we need to hope Liverpool are pretty poor otherwise or we are impeccable ourselves.
 
Well I have updated this and my original predictions for these last 7 games of the season were that we'd win the last 6 and draw away at Liverpool. If we can do this we finish on 75 points. 3 points better off than last year, a new record points tally for a 38 game season with 3 points for a win and near certain 4th spot.

I say near certain 4th spot because history dictates anybody getting 75 points in a 38 game season always finishes top 4. The only issue is this year looks likely being the toughest year to get in the top 4. But I still think it will be enough, just about.

Sky Bet have us at 12/1 to get top 4. Worth a tenner...

WIN (23 Matches)
Home: Swansea City, Norwich City, Hull City, Stoke City, Crystal Palace, Everton, Cardiff City, Southampton, Sunderland, Fulham, Aston Villa
Away: Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Sunderland, Southampton, Manchester United, Swansea City, Newcastle United, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, West Ham United

DRAW (6 Matches)
Home: Chelsea, Manchester United, West Bromwich Albion,
Away: Everton, Hull City, Liverpool

LOSE (9 Matches)
Home: West Ham United, Newcastle United, Liverpool, Manchester City, Woolwich
Away: Woolwich, Manchester City, Norwich City, Chelsea

Total 75 Points
 
I don't think 75 points get it done. I don't even think 77 gets it done.

If Spurs win out and get to 77, they would still need one of these to happen:
Woolwich drops 10 points in last 8 games
Liverpool drops 13 points in last 8 games
City drops 17 points in last 10 games
Chelsea drops 14 points in last 7 games

It is not going to happen.
 
YidNYC said:
I don't think 75 points get it done. I don't even think 77 gets it done.

If Spurs win out and get to 77, they would still need one of these to happen:
Woolwich drops 10 points in last 8 games
Liverpool drops 13 points in last 8 games
City drops 17 points in last 10 games
Chelsea drops 14 points in last 7 games

It is not going to happen.
Click to expand...
SPURSY
 
YidNYC said:
I don't think 75 points get it done. I don't even think 77 gets it done.

If Spurs win out and get to 77, they would still need one of these to happen:
Woolwich drops 10 points in last 8 games
Liverpool drops 13 points in last 8 games
City drops 17 points in last 10 games
Chelsea drops 14 points in last 7 games

It is not going to happen.
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The scum could possibly lose to City, Everton and Swansea, we'd only need em to draw a game then.

Still very unlikely, its a damn shame we couldn't beat them the other week.
 
Hegarz said:
The scum could possibly lose to City, Everton and Swansea, we'd only need em to draw a game then.

Still very unlikely, its a damn shame we couldn't beat them the other week.
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More likely that they draw 4 or 5 games, we could do it that way but as you say any top 4 finish is really out the window now.
 
YidNYC said:
I don't think 75 points get it done. I don't even think 77 gets it done.

If Spurs win out and get to 77, they would still need one of these to happen:
Woolwich drops 10 points in last 8 games
Liverpool drops 13 points in last 8 games
City drops 17 points in last 10 games
Chelsea drops 14 points in last 7 games

It is not going to happen.
Click to expand...

Its like a dream where as you walk up the stairs the stairs keep growing, probably need 80 points next year for a top 4 finish, frustrating.
 
I've made a prediction using my spreadsheet (in the Maffs n Stats thread) and it came out like this:

I didn't look at the table when I guessed the results, but assume either I was a bit harsh on Palace or they have a bad run in.

I don't think the top 4 margin will be much different

Ignore the goal difference bit

91ebrq.jpg
 
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