2013/14 Spurs League Prediction

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Clarky

Clarky

At the start of the season I put together what I felt was a realistic points target for us to achieve that would guarantee us a top 4 finish and also leave us in with a shout of winning the league. So far I've predicted every result correct bar the West Ham game so thought I'd share it with you as surprisingly it's gone pretty well much to plan.

I've put a strike through the results we have achieved already and revised it to include the fact we did lose to West Ham (so naturally has brought the total points target down). Obviously it seems a bit silly to try and predict every result over a whole season but because I've got 9 out of 10 right so far I thought I'd share it with you as it might not be that far fetched and also cheers me up a bit when we do lose or draw because if I'd had that already marked down as such, it fills me with hope we'll get past the 80 point total!

I've often wondered if managers put together such kind of lists or maybe it's a bit juvenile I don't know!

WIN (24 Matches)
Home: Swansea City, Norwich City, Hull City, Newcastle United, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Southampton, Sunderland, Fulham, Aston Villa
Away: Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Sunderland, Swansea City, Hull City, Newcastle United, Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, West Ham United

DRAW (9 Matches)
Home: Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City, Everton, Woolwich
Away: Everton, Southampton, Liverpool

LOSE (5 Matches)
Home: West Ham United
Away: Woolwich, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea

Total 81 Points

It is also interesting to see where 81 points would leave you in all previous First Division / Premier League seasons that had 20 teams in the league and 3 points for a win....

1989 1st
1990 1st
1991 2nd
1996 2nd
1997 1st
1998 1st
1999 1st
2000 2nd
2001 1st
2002 2nd
2003 2nd
2004 2nd
2005 3rd
2006 4th
2007 3rd
2008 4th
2009 4th
2010 3rd
2011 1st
2012 3rd
2013 2nd
 
Looking at the previous league tables it is interesting noting the differences. For example last year we got 72 points and only came 5th, a full 17 points behind the champions Manchester United. In 1996/97 72 points would have left us 2nd and only 3 points off the champions Manchester United.
 
jet said:
We will lose more than one home games.
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Think the point is ignoring the law of averages - I don't think many would've had us down to take 4 points off United last season, nor to beat City 3-1. As he says - probably not something the managers do but an interesting look at what you expect from the beginning of the season and what happens at the end.

@ Clarky Clarky How much detail did you go into when looking at fixtures? Did you factor in European games and cup games with fatigue, etc? Or was it literally "We should beat these cunts and these cunts but probably not these cunts?"
 
Gothamizm said:
Think the point is ignoring the law of averages - I don't think many would've had us down to take 4 points off United last season, nor to beat City 3-1. As he says - probably not something the managers do but an interesting look at what you expect from the beginning of the season and what happens at the end.

@ Clarky Clarky How much detail did you go into when looking at fixtures? Did you factor in European games and cup games with fatigue, etc? Or was it literally "We should beat these cunts and these cunts but probably not these cunts?"
Click to expand...

I didn't go into cup games so much because it was impossible to know how far we would go in each competition. When I made this prediction in August we were still in the qualifying for Europa so were not even guaranteed the 6 group stage matches and I didn't know when we may be playing away in Russia or home to some tin pot outfit where we can rest our key players etc.

Of course last year we got knocked out of the FA Cup and Capital One Cup early doors so they didn't have any effect whereas they may this year.

I used this more as a perfect season scenario if everything played out as it should kind of thing. Of course football never works like that but I tried to keep it as optimistic but realistic as possible with room for draws and defeats along the way.

More simply all it requires is for us to turn 3 of our losses from last year into 3 wins this year and we get 81 points. I know we've lost Bale but with the overall improvement of the squad in most areas, AVB and his staff more in tune with the club now after that bedding in period at the start of last year and everybody settled at the new Training Centre, I see no reason why we can't improve upon last year.
 
jet said:
We will lose more than one home games.
Click to expand...

I may sound a deluded fool but I really see no reason why we should be losing any home games this year, especially with the amount of clean sheets we are keeping at the moment. I genuinely don't fear any team coming to WHL and beating us. This is the worst United team in 20 years, we've already drawn with Chelsea, Liverpool and City look spineless on the road and the past few years we've always upped our game and played well against Woolwich at home.

West Ham was a freak one off and the rest of the league won't be coming to WHL and going gung-ho for the win.

I know we are struggling going forward at the moment especially at home but we certainly don't look like conceding (West Ham aside - even then they were the only 3 chances they had, one was a wonder goal, one a goalmouth scramble and one a flukey ricochet off his knee after Lloris' save). If only Defoe had fucking buried that one on one in the 1st min of the 2nd half I'm sure we would have go on to win the game and find us sitting in 2nd place, with 23 points and all 10 predictions correct.
 
Would dearly love 81 points but as wishful as we hope can see us coming up short say anywhere from 72 to 75 points.
If we expect our rivals to slip up and lose to a bottom ten team/s then surely averages would see us do the same.
Our goal has to be winning the odd away game against a traditional top 4/6 teams.
Realistically I can see us anywhere from 3rd to 5th - here's wishing 3rd.
 
Academic as it is, you can afford to lose all your games to the top 5 - home and away - and still get 84 points (14 teams, 28 games x 3 points).
Also we've already dropped 5 (unless you'd include Everton ahead of Liverpool) but we've gained 1 vs Chelsea and I would argue are more likely to gain points against Utd/City/Woolwich etc than we are to drop them to the other 14 teams (although it will undoubtedly happen throughout the season).

That said I'd take finishing above Woolwich irrespective of where in the league that is (admittedly their strong start means the likelihood is that it'd mean a top 3/4 slot).
 
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Love it.

Really puts any bad result into perspective. We just need to take care of business against the inferior teams and maybe steal some points off the better ones, and a top 4 finish is not a pipe dream.
 
Next 3 games are Newcastle (H), City (A), United (H) so 4 points will leave us on target. Incidentally we got 4 points from those same fixtures last year.
 
So Sandro has said that we need to win our next 5 PL games in a row ... if we are to mount a challenge.

Can it happen?
What could happen?

The 5 games are: City away, United home, Fulham away, Sunderland away, and Liverpool home.
We also have 2 EL games within these fixtures, but thankfully we already qualified, so it should ease a lot of bodies.

Whatever does happen, I'm pretty sure it will give us a fair indicator of what Spurs will be challenging for this season: the top 4 or even the title.

Let's hope everyone at Spurs has the same belief and goal that Sandro has.
 
SinghYid said:
So Sandro has said that we need to win our next 5 PL games in a row ... if we are to mount a challenge.

Can it happen?
What could happen?

The 5 games are: City away, United home, Fulham away, Sunderland away, and Liverpool home.
We also have 2 EL games within these fixtures, but thankfully we already qualified, so it should ease a lot of bodies.

Whatever does happen, I'm pretty sure it will give us a fair indicator of what Spurs will be challenging for this season: the top 4 or even the title.
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Realistically, i can't see us getting more than 10 points from these fixtures (and i'd take that right now). Title push or top 4, we will need to improve our game considerably for the clashes against the Manchester teams and Liverpool. The game against City is critical because it will be a morale booster if we get a good result; if lose, we might find it difficult to pick ourselves up.
 
JohnnyS said:
Realistically, i can't see us getting more than 10 points from these fixtures (and i'd take that right now). Title push or top 4, we will need to improve our game considerably for the clashes against the Manchester teams and Liverpool. The game against City is critical because it will be a morale booster if we get a good result; if lose, we might find it difficult to pick ourselves up.
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I am just afraid that we if lose against both Manchester clubs ... it's gonna be really harsh on the lads.
The loss of confidence will be huge taking 2 back to back defeats (let alone making it 3, including Newcastle).

A lot of people will already rule us out of the top 4.
It technically would still be possible, but the possibility will (obviously) depend on how we bounce back.

It's gonna be a big test of character, so get ready for a bumpy ride.
... Though I hope it's one of those bumpy rides, where we would purposely sit in the back of the school bus to enjoy it.
 
After the whole furore surrounding our losses to Newcastle then Man City it seemed like our whole season had gone to pot. But my prediction thing has stayed pretty decent, with only the Newcastle game being wrong since I lasted posted here. The loss to City, draw to United and now wins against Fulham and Sunderland all went as I predicted.

So far this season after 15 games I have correctly predicted the outcome of 13 matches, the losses to West Ham and Newcastle at home (highlighted below in italics) being the only wrong ones, and thus leaving my prediction standing at a points total of 78 after 38 games which would certainly guarantee top 4 and likely 3rd or 2nd.

Interestingly I have us down to draw the next 2 matches.

WIN (23 Matches)
Home: Swansea City, Norwich City, Hull City, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Southampton, Sunderland, Fulham, Aston Villa
Away: Crystal Palace, Cardiff City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Sunderland, Swansea City, Hull City, Newcastle United, Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, West Ham United

DRAW (9 Matches)
Home: Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City, Everton, Woolwich
Away: Everton, Southampton, Liverpool

LOSE (6 Matches)
Home: West Ham United, Newcastle United
Away: Woolwich, Manchester City, Manchester United, Chelsea

Total 78 Points
 
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