For anyone wondering on our qualification status. Here it is going into group game 5. Skip to the end for a shorter analysis.
Win against Sporting
We qualify for round of 16 as we guarantee to finish ahead of sporting and Frankfurt.
If Frankfurt wins at home to marseille, we win the group.
If they draw, we will need a draw or a one goal loss at Marseille to win the group (we would win on H2H GD). If we lose by 2 goals, it’s likely we lose the overall GD tiebreaker.
If Marseille win, we need a draw at Marseille to win the group.
Draw against Sporting
A win at Marseille would guarantee we win the group.
Wed need a win at Marseille just to qualify if Marseille wins at Frankfurt and Sporting does too in match 6.
Any other results and a draw will see us qualify. We could win the group with 2 draws only if Frankfurt-Marseille and Sporting-Frankfurt both end in draws. This is unlikely.
A loss at Marseille would see us qualify only if Frankfurt wins at Sporting but does not win against Marseille. This is probably the likeliest scenario where we don’t qualify.
Lose against sporting
We can still automatically qualify with a win at Marseille as we’d be guaranteed to finish above them and either Sporting/Frankfurt.
We only win the group if Sporting lose home to Frankfurt.
A draw would see us finish 2nd if Marseille fail to beat Frankfurt and Frankfurt do not win at Sporting. If Frankfurt win at Sporting and draw Marseille, we would win the 3 way tiebreak for 2nd between us, Marseille, and Frankfurt all on 8 points due to H2H results.
2 losses and we fall into Europa at best. If Frankfurt gain 4 points, we’d finish last.
In summary
4 points guarantees we win the group.
3 points guarantees we qualify and based on other results could win the group.
2 points means we’d qualify unless marseille/sporting both win against Frankfurt. Tiny chance to win group if all other matches are draws.
1 point means we’d be relying on several results to qualify. A loss/draw is definitely better than a draw/loss. Can’t finish 4th.
0 points and we are likely in Europa unless Frankfurt gain 4 points and we finish last.