TFC's Tactical Autopsy Thread

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This is a bit shallow maybe - the criteria not exactly expansive - Bissouma is the second best in the PL, but check out who the Spurs linked player is the second highest rated English based (the highest rated English)player is:


The 435th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the Wyscout data on passes to draw up a global ranking of the world’s top 100 midfield distributors among those who played at least 450 domestic league minutes during the current season. The top three are Rodri (Manchester City), Frankie de Jong (Barcelona) and Toni Kroos (Real Madrid).
The top-ranked players outside the European big-5 are Aschraf El Mahdioui (Al-Taawoun, 6th), Álvaro Fidalgo (CF América, 8th) and Yahya Jabrane (Wydad AC, 10th). Three players who have not yet celebrated their 21st birthday rank in the top 100: João Neves of Benfica (34nd) and Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid (71th). Two footballers aged over 40 also feature in the top 100 places: Felipe Melo of Fluminense (38th) and Yasuhito Endo of Jubilo Iwata (77th).

The index used takes into account the number of successful passes per match, the percentage of successful passes, the ratio of passes compared to teammates, as well as the average level of matches played. The methodology behind this last metric is explained in this note. Please do not hesitate to contact us for more information about our services.



View: https://imgur.com/a/EKfkuMn

:pochshock2:
 
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This is a bit shallow maybe - the criteria not exactly expansive - Bissouma is the second best in the PL, but check out who the Spurs linked player is the second highest rated English based (the highest rated English)player is:


The 435th CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post analyses the Wyscout data on passes to draw up a global ranking of the world’s top 100 midfield distributors among those who played at least 450 domestic league minutes during the current season. The top three are Rodri (Manchester City), Frankie de Jong (Barcelona) and Toni Kroos (Real Madrid).
The top-ranked players outside the European big-5 are Aschraf El Mahdioui (Al-Taawoun, 6th), Álvaro Fidalgo (CF América, 8th) and Yahya Jabrane (Wydad AC, 10th). Three players who have not yet celebrated their 21st birthday rank in the top 100: João Neves of Benfica (34nd) and Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid (71th). Two footballers aged over 40 also feature in the top 100 places: Felipe Melo of Fluminense (38th) and Yasuhito Endo of Jubilo Iwata (77th).

The index used takes into account the number of successful passes per match, the percentage of successful passes, the ratio of passes compared to teammates, as well as the average level of matches played. The methodology behind this last metric is explained in this note. Please do not hesitate to contact us for more information about our services.



View: https://imgur.com/a/EKfkuMn

:pochshock2:

Leicester are coasting, they could be 20 points clear of 3rd by the new year.

Cunts.
 

Since the turn of the century, the best European teams have generally had a No 10-type player — Mesut Ozil and James Rodríguez at Real Madrid, Wesley Sneijder (Real and Inter Milan), AC Milan’s Kaká and Woolwich’s Dennis Bergkamp et al.

Yet over the past ten years or so, those creative players who sit behind a striker have become rarer — they have instead been deployed either on the left or right of a midfield three (so-called “No 8s”).

The list of former No 10s who now play in deeper roles at English clubs is extensive: at Manchester United there is Bruno Fernandes and Mason Mount; at Manchester City there is Kevin De Bruyne and previously Ilkay Gundogan; at Woolwich there is Martin Odegaard, Kai Havertz and Emile Smith Rowe; while Chelsea have Cole Palmer; Tottenham Hotspur have James Maddison; and there are several examples — Harvey Elliott, Curtis Jones, Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister — at Liverpool.


Many of these were playing as No 10s in their academy days or even immediately before they joined their clubs in England — but why are they now playing as No 8s, and if the demand for players featuring as conventional No 10s for top-level teams is falling, why are so many young players still playing that position?

The answer comes in two parts: the evolution in tactics over the past 10 to 15 years; and the prized skills that No 10s inherently develop, and how they are still valuable — even if not used directly behind a striker.
Since the turn of the century, the best European teams have generally had a No 10-type player — Bergkamp, at Woolwich, was a classic example

Since the turn of the century, the best European teams have generally had a No 10-type player — Bergkamp, at Woolwich, was a classic example
GETTY IMAGES

First, the 4-2-3-1 formation — which housed Ozil and Rodríguez as No 10s — is rarer than it was a decade ago — but more importantly, the demands of players across the entire pitch has changed too.
Players are becoming more tactically aware as the quality of academy coaching improves; rather than being asked to play in one particular position, they are often challenged with fulfilling a variety of roles: sometimes defending, other times attacking, and often doing all the bits in between — all depending on where the ball and their team-mates are.

Although that development sits within a wider tactical context: when Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona achieved their Treble in 2011 they did so with three particularly distinct elements: a possession-dominant approach; a false-nine system featuring Lionel Messi; and full backs that soared up and down the pitch, providing width as the Barcelona wingers moved infield when the team held possession in the final third.
As wingers have increasingly played on the opposite side to their footedness, having a player who could offer width, an overlap, and a natural crossing option has become more valuable — and that 4-3-3 formation Barcelona used (and became a template across Europe) looked like a 2-3-5 shape in practice.
But with three attackers and two full backs positioned inside or just outside the opponents’ penalty area, the rest of the pitch needed to be defended by the midfielders and centre backs.
The specialist and fixed No 10, then, became positionally redundant as full backs took up more attacking duties and positions became more fluid.

Now, in 2024, full backs are not overlapping as often and tend to provide protection infield by inverting. But with a crowded midfield the challenge is to identify where space is and how to access it — which is where those who played as No 10s in their early careers step forward: they can find or manipulate space and operate within it, whether it is in the centre of the pitch or out wide near the touchline.
That ability to discern where space is, drag opponents around and create opportunities for team-mates, are the exact qualities No 10s develop and are renowned for, but they are now being asked to use them in deeper positions (or even as false No 9s).

But what is the value of using a No 10 in spaces that are not native to them? There are a few elements that make No 10s valuable and malleable: their movement, their ability to shield the ball and operate in tight spaces with both feet, and a sense of how to thread delicate passes or force through line-breaking ones. In short, it is their intelligence on the pitch — smart players are always useful, especially in a modern game where players must be comfortable with rotating.

In Woolwich’s Havertz and Liverpool’s Jones are two very different players who demonstrate the virtues of using No 10s in deeper positions.

Fifa’s Training Centre — an online academy established by Arsène Wenger, Fifa’s chief of global football development — outlines five different types of movement: in front; in between; in-to-out; out-to-in and in behind.

A movement in front is when a player looks to receive possession in front of the opposition’s defensive shape.

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In between is when the player moves between two lines in the opposition’s defensive shape — eg between the strikers and midfielders.

In-to-out is when the player starts inside the shape but moves out, and and out-to-in is the opposite; here Havertz has moved into a more central position from out on the left to make more space for Gabriel Martinelli to receive the ball on the left wing.

And here Havertz does the opposite: vacating a central position to move out wide and find space to receive the ball himself.

In behind is a run beyond the last line, as seen in this goal against Brighton.
The concepts are simple but they are hard to master; yet both Havertz and Jones have shown an aptitude for all elements of movement and spatial awareness — as do most of the aforementioned No 10s.
Have a look at this position that Jones and Luis Díaz take up.

While they both occupy different spaces on the pitch, they are positioned on the same vertical line — so Díaz is inaccessible to Virgil van Dijk.

But watch how they coordinate their movement in opposite directions: Díaz pulls right, while Jones moves left.

Now they are both on different heights and widths, accessible to Van Dijk and should they receive the ball, they can find each other.

These synchronised movements can, of course, be performed by any player on the pitch but they tend to be the sort of patterns demonstrated by smart, creative players further upfield (No 10s), rather than centre backs or full backs who move infield.

Havertz was no conventional No 10 when he was at Bayer Leverkusen. He was essentially a secondary striker, tasked with supporting the centre forward and opening spaces with intelligent movement off the ball, rather than with combination play and delicate passing.

In his best season for Leverkusen (2018-19), he scored 17 league goals (including three penalties) and was a high-pressing, box-crashing forward, timing his runs into the area from deep (by hovering in the spaces between midfield and defence, a supporting player can avoid the immediate attention of the defending team and spring a surprise run).

Here’s one of those box-crashing moments, in Leverkusen’s win over Mainz.
But he also displayed a deftness of touch, a willingness to show for the ball and the capacity to receive in space.

Those qualities (combined with his size, which is particularly useful for a team that had the lowest aerial win rate in the league last season) were why Woolwich believed he could play as a No 8, operating in the midfield and forward line.

It has taken Havertz a while to get up to speed but he now has four league goals and an assist, while playing in a slightly deeper position than he did at Chelsea.

As Havertz was not a conventional No 10, when he plays as a No 8 he interprets the role slightly differently: he often positions himself relative to the striker to find space and surprise defences, like for the goal against Brighton mentioned earlier.

Just like the Tottenham full backs Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie, who move infield but play very different roles, there are countless ways to interpret the No 8 position, and having an unorthodox skill set adds another piece of equipment to a team’s tactical toolbox, so they can disassemble defences and construct attacks.

One of those tools that No 10s instinctively hone is a passing range and an appreciation for the weight of pass.

Another attacking midfielder who has been tasked with playing deeper this season is Mac Allister; here he threads through a masterful pass between four players to set Diogo Jota through on goal.
Playing a No 10 deeper can open up all manner of possibilities; by largely doing away with the No 10 position over the past decade, the players who once fitted that mould have been liberated to influence matches even more.

Shame when Maddison did play for England they stuck him up Kane’s bum rather than played him in his current modern Spurs role.

Having the number 10 as part of midfield is something I like. A lot of midfield’s now have the deep lying playmaker (6), the forward playmaker (10) and the box to box (8) as standard. We are quite good for that when all our players are fit with some players able to cover multiple positions.

Might need a bit more depth at 6 such as Vermeeren and upgrade to Hojbjerg and Skipp.

6

Bissouma
Bentancur

8

Bentancur
Sarr
Lo Celso
Skipp
Hojbjerg

10

Lo Celso
Maddison
Kulusevski

I do find it interesting the article referenced Havertz and while he is a goal scorer he isn’t the best if you want fluid creative passing, at best he is a number 10 second striker.

I suppose you could say the number 10 originally was a second striker with the old fashioned little and big man combination (Defoe and Crouch), then it evolved into a more creator role behind the striker and now it has evolved into a creator midfield type role.

In this respect Maddison feels like the modern number 10 where as Havertz is closer to the old fashioned second striker role, perhaps why it doesn’t seem to work that well.
 
Bit light on detail and real in depth analysis, but worth a read maybe. Talking about Woolwich's hybrid press system where they switch from Man to Man to zonal. It's not revolutionary, various other coaches have used variations of the man to man and/or hybrid system. But it does take coaching, energy and athleticism, and some tactical nous.

The pattern of Arse/Liverpool was similar in some way to Arse v us. Early aggressive energetic press, but once you break it a couple of times, and energy levels start to wain, it can turn lazy or into pure zonal.

This is where the athleticism, combined with technical ability and bravery of Bissouma is so vital. Like many teams, even the best ones, we/he struggled early with that energetic press. But he didn't disappear up his own arse, he kept trying to play and beat the press and gradually we got a foothold in the game.

Woolwich average 60% possession. They had 46% against us.




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-Woolwich-beat-liverpool-using-hybrid-pressing-nqhjpspvl



“Hybrid-pressing” was how Jamie Carragher described the tactics Woolwich used in their 3-1 win over Liverpool on Sunday — tactics that neutered Jürgen Klopp’s team and reduced them to season-low statistics for shots on target (one) and expected goals (0.3).

But what is “hybrid-pressing”, and how can a team beat it?

Simply, it is a combination of both zonal pressing (the conventional style of defending) and man-marking.

Zonal marking is the conventional style of defending: it prioritises covering certain areas, typically the centre of the pitch. But that means there are spaces where opponents can hold possession freely, without pressure — often in deeper areas or out wide.

This 4-4-2 shape taken up by Woolwich below is an example of zonal defending — they sit off and are primed to spring out and apply pressure if Liverpool venture too far forward.


Zonal pressing is fundamentally reactive; when an opponent enters a zone the press is triggered. But man-to-man pressing is proactive.
In its simplest form, man-to-man pressing means that the players of the team without possession are assigned an opponent to track around the pitch. It is the style commonly associated with Marcelo Bielsa and his Leeds United side, but can actually be traced back to Herbert Chapman and his Woolwich team.
“The advantages of rigid man-marking are also clear: simplicity, no communication problems when passing and moving, no special tactical training, playing off an ideally superior athleticism, and a continuous focus on the opposition’s key player,” writes Rene Maric, the head of coaching and playing style at Bayern Munich, for the German tactical website Spielverlagerung.
There are a couple of ways to man-mark: players can follow their opponents around the pitch, or they can man-mark and pass them on to their team-mate (e.g. a central midfielder may wish to pass the player they are marking to a winger or full back if they are pulled out wide).
While in recent years some sides have used a specialist man-marker within a zonal system (Sir Alex Ferguson would often task Park Ji-sung with sticking to particularly dangerous opponents, notably Andrea Pirlo), the man-marking tactic requires almost every outfield player to commit, so the defending team can regain the ball high up the pitch.
One of the key principles of a man-marking press is to “split the pitch” in half, to limit the space available to the team with possession.
Arsenal funnel the ball to one side and split the pitch, so Liverpool are trapped on their left wing. Arsenal eventually win possession as Virgil van Dijk is unable to find a team-mate

Woolwich funnel the ball to one side and split the pitch, so Liverpool are trapped on their left wing. Woolwich eventually win possession as Virgil van Dijk is unable to find a team-mate
Most coaches tend not to use all ten outfield players when pressing in a man-marking system, though, and leave a covering player at the back. If the opponent has one striker, the pressing team usually leaves two defenders at the back so one can man-mark and the other can sweep.
The trade-off for having a covering defender is that the pressing team’s striker often has to try to press two centre backs, which is why it is important to split the pitch and prevent both centre halves from getting on the ball.
Consequently, the team with possession will usually have a “free man”, but the pressing team will try to make sure this player is one whom they are content with holding the ball freely — typically a centre back with a limited passing range.
One of the downsides of man-marking is that it can be manipulated by smart movement. For example, Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister found space early in the first half against Woolwich and was able to play a forward pass to Cody Gakpo, after both Ryan Gravenberch and Diogo Jota had dragged Oleksandr Zinchenko and Jorginho away to create a passing lane for the Argentina international.
Gravenberch and Jota’s runs create space for Mac Allister to find Gakpo, as Arsenal’s forwards are committed to presing man-to-man, but the rest of the team are caught between pressing or dropping off into their zonal marking system

Gravenberch and Jota’s runs create space for Mac Allister to find Gakpo, as Woolwich’s forwards are committed to presing man-to-man, but the rest of the team are caught between pressing or dropping off into their zonal marking system
But Woolwich’s pressing system flitted between approaches: when they pressed high they did so man-to-man; but once Liverpool advanced with the ball near halfway they would drop off into a zonal shape, which made manipulating space, as Liverpool did above, harder.
In this illustration below, Martin Odegaard joins Kai Havertz in leading the press, while the wingers Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli support by closing down the Liverpool full backs.
Arsenal apply pressure in the opening minutes of the match by pressing aggressively, man-to-man

Woolwich apply pressure in the opening minutes of the match by pressing aggressively, man-to-man
Behind them, Jorginho and Declan Rice stepped up to cover Curtis Jones and Mac Allister, while Gabriel tended to press the away side’s third midfielder, Gravenberch. This left the remaining defenders — Ben White, William Saliba and Zinchenko — one-on-one with the Liverpool front line.
The hybrid press is a tactic Woolwich have used before, for example in the FA Cup in February 2023, when they played Manchester City:
However, as many teams avoid playing out against Woolwich, it is not something spectators witness often.
But what tactics can a team or manager employ to beat a sophisticated hybrid press such as Woolwich’s? Here are a few potential solutions:

Long-ball football​

The simplest and most effective tactic is direct, long football.
A pressing team needs to be compact and keep the distances between the furthest player forward and the deepest defender as small as possible, otherwise an opponent can play through the press and expose the spaces between the lines and in behind the defence. That often means the defenders step up to (or even beyond) the halfway line.
But the effectiveness of direct passes over the top of defenders and into the space behind depends on whether the pressing team has a spare man in the defensive line, and how quick both they and the attacking players are.
In the FA Cup match between Woolwich and Liverpool last month, Klopp’s team used Darwin Núñez’s pace and physicality from the left wing to disrupt Woolwich’s man-to-man press at the back.

Stretching play​

That space between the deepest defenders and the most advanced attackers can be manipulated in other ways, too.
The team holding the ball can build up deep in their own half (or even their penalty area).
By enticing the pressing team forward, spaces can open up between the lines, which creates the potential for direct passes through the heart of the pitch and counterattacks.

Finding the spare man (or the weakest link)​

Man-to-man and hybrid systems usually leave a weakness somewhere, as usually at least one player does not press so they can sweep and provide cover.
Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth, by comparison, leave a spare man on the opposite wing to which they are pressing. For example, if pressing the opponent’s left back on that side, they will leave the right back free. If the switch is completed, then Bournemouth drop off. For the team with the ball, finding that player with a quick switch of play can provide an opportunity to counterattack before they drop back into shape.
But Woolwich, who went three v three in defence against Liverpool, committed completely to playing man-to-man, so the potential weaknesses lay in exploiting that match-up at the back, or isolating a player who is weak in one-on-one duels.

Keep committing more players in deeper areas​

The team that has possession should — theoretically — always have the advantage of a spare player in their goalkeeper.
So even if the pressing team goes man-to-man with outfielders, the team with the ball will always have an additional man that can be found.
With that extra player is an opportunity to play around or through the press.
This idea can be taken to extremes: the team with possession could bring nine outfielders into their defensive third and dare the opponent to defend one-on-one at the back.

Take on the pressing player​

One of the biggest disadvantages of the man-to-man press is that if one of the pressing players is dribbled past, the defending team becomes imbalanced: a defending player will have to step away from the player they are marking to put pressure on the ball.
This is why teams that press man-to-man tend to keep an extra defender at the back as a spare man, but a deft dribbler can dismantle this system, as it is based upon winning one-on-one duels.
The type of players and their characteristics also have an important role in the effectiveness of a man-to-man press. Having stronger and quicker players is crucial to a man-marking press, too: a player that can outmuscle their opponent or ride challenges (such as the Italy midfielder Marco Verratti) can dismantle a man-to-man press and turn a moment of danger into one of opportunity.
Players who can consistently win their duels offer a significant advantage. For example, Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne consistently won their duels against their man-markers in Manchester City’s 4-1 win over Woolwich in the Premier League last season.
In this example below, Haaland dominates Rob Holding and passes to De Bruyne, who breaks between two players before scoring.
This was a problem Bielsa’s Leeds faced: while they were largely technically and physically superior across the pitch in the Championship, when his team encountered Premier League-level opponents the advantage of his tactics became a disadvantage, as his players often lost their duels.

Capitalising on the transition between systems​

Jon Mackenzie, the analyst and presenter of Tifo Football, wrote earlier this season that one area where the hybrid press can be exposed is when the pressing team is caught between minds of whether to commit to playing man-to-man or dropping into a more secure zonal shape.
In the example used earlier, where Mac Allister passes to Gakpo, Woolwich’s forwards — Odegaard and Havertz — wished to press man-to-man.
However, as Odegaard runs past Mac Allister, his team-mate Jorginho has not “jumped” up to press the Liverpool midfielder, preferring instead to maintain his position.
The Woolwich midfielders and defenders then decide to drop as Mac Allister advances, as the Liverpool midfielder can pick a pass forward, which he does to find Gakpo.
That decisive moment of whether to jump forward or drop back requires coordination among the pressing team, and when they are positioned near halfway (or an opponent is running in behind), that question of whether to press in unison or drop needs to be answered both immediately and in complete synchrony, otherwise the press can be exposed.

Give up possession​

Arguably the most effective tactic against pressing teams is to completely eschew the opportunity for them to press at all. Sit deep, clear the ball regularly and challenge the opponent to try to create chances without preying on mistakes.
So, what is next for marking and pressing?
One idea floated by Maric is to flip the idea of a specialist man-marker — such as Park — and instead use a specialist “space marker”, who is tasked with covering space.
Those spaces would tend to be ones in the middle of the pitch that could potentially develop into danger areas if opponents could to play into it.
It’s a radical idea, but so was man-marking: “If you mark man-to-man, you’re sending out eleven donkeys,” Ernst Happel, the two-times European Cup-winning manager, once said.
So it might not be long before the space defenders make an appearance.
 
Spurs are allowing opponents better chances than at any point in the last eight years - why?Spurs are allowing opponents better chances than at any point in the last eight years – why?

The last time we heard from Ange Postecoglou, after the 2-1 home defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers, he had to insist that he was “not a magician” and that only hard work on the training ground would get Tottenham back to where they want to be.

There will have been two empty weeks for Spurs between Wolves and their next game, at home to Crystal Palace on Saturday. The hope is that when they return, they will have fixed some of their recent problems and deliver a rousing final third of the campaign.

An objectively successful 2023-24 season is well within Spurs’ grasp. They are fifth in the league with a game in hand on fourth-placed Aston Villa. Win that, and the gap shrinks to two points. We do not know yet whether the Premier League will get a fifth Champions League place but it may well break that way.


Putting league position to one side, Spurs are on course for a 71-point season, as many as they got under Antonio Conte in 2021-22 or during Mauricio Pochettino’s last full season in 2018-19. Squeeze a bit more out of the last 13 games and they will finish with their best tally in at least six years. Not bad for their first season under a new manager playing a new style, with half of a brand new team and without Harry Kane.

However, it is impossible to avoid the feeling that the wind has slightly gone out of Spurs’ sails in the last few months. Their record is not bad — 11 points from the last six league games, only two defeats in 10 — but anyone who has been watching will know the performances have dropped since the start of the season, even with the return of their best players from injuries and international duty. The defeat to Wolves felt like more of an overdue correction than a shock.

It is easy to get wrapped up in the short-term news cycle issues affecting the team, about individual performance and selection — but look in detail at Spurs’ season and one question jumps out: how can Spurs maintain their league position when they give up so many chances?

By most metrics, they concede far more goalscoring opportunities than you would expect from a team trying to qualify for the Champions League. They are conceding more chances this season than they have at any point over the last seven years, which has not been a golden spell in their history.

Our main metric here is expected goals (xG), which measures the quality of a chance. It is the best metric we have of performance level and, therefore, the best long-term predictor of results.

This season, Tottenham have conceded a total xG of 43.58, or 1.74 per game, according to Opta. If you ranked all 20 Premier League teams by xG against (xGA), only seven teams would place worse than Spurs. Their figure is far closer to the worst team in the league (Luton Town, 2.09 xGA per game) than it is to the best teams (Manchester City 0.96, Woolwich 0.71.) According to xGA, Spurs are conceding more chances than Manchester United (1.67 xGA per game), Bournemouth (1.62) and Nottingham Forest (1.5).


This season stands out for Spurs, whose average xGA per game of 1.74 is by far their worst over the last eight seasons. It is a big leap from the previous worst (1.46) in 2019-20, the season Pochettino was sacked and replaced by Jose Mourinho. This season’s figure is very close to being double what it was in the peak years of Pochettino: 0.89 in 2016-17 and 0.90 in 2017-18. Back then, Spurs had, statistically, the best defence in the country, conceding just 26 goals in 2016-17. It seems unlikely they will get back to that level soon.


Looking in more detail at Tottenham’s record over the last four seasons, we can see how their numbers have changed and why this campaign’s xGA is so much higher. The below chart shows the 10-game rolling average of Spurs’ xG and xGA since the 2020-21 season.

After Postecoglou took over in the summer, Spurs’ average xG shot up and their average xGA went down, with his team creating better quality chances than their opponents for the first quarter of the season. (This is represented by the blue shaded area). For these first 10 games, of which Spurs won eight and drew two, their xGA is roughly at the level it was for the start of last season, or much of 2020-21. In short, the opening part of Postecoglou’s reign was defensively solid.

tottenham_hotspur_rolling_npxg_ribbon.png


The turning point came after 10 games, after the nine-men of Spurs lost 4-1 to Chelsea on November 6. From that point, you can see Spurs’ 10-game xGA average shoots up and even exceeds the worst moments under Mourinho, Nuno Espirito Santo, Conte or Cristian Stellini. Spurs were in xG deficit for a while (the red shaded area), with more xGA than xG. But in the last few games, their xGA average has started to come back down again.

What does this tell us? First, the Chelsea defeat was a defining moment. Up to that point, Spurs were doing well defensively — their xGA per game of 1.27 was the sixth-best in the league.


The issue was not just that Spurs conceded a total xG of 4.12 to Chelsea, it was also that centre-back Micky van de Ven sustained a hamstring injury, putting him out for the next two months. Defenders Cristian Romero and Destiny Udogie were sent off, prompting suspensions. Midfielder James Maddison picked up an ankle injury that put him out for almost three months and, suddenly, Spurs were without half of their team.

When Romero suffered a hamstring injury in December, Spurs’ defence was hit further. Single-game xG figures rarely tell the whole story but Spurs went on to concede 2.15 xG at Wolves in November, 2.57 xG at Manchester City and 3.58 xG at Brighton & Hove Albion in December.

Those numbers were unsustainable for a successful team and, in hindsight, it is remarkable they managed to maintain consistent results. Since Van de Ven and Romero returned to the team for the Manchester United game on 14 January, Spurs’ have conceded 7.96 xG over five games — a healthier per-game average of 1.59. That puts them ninth in the league over that period. Not quite as good as the first 10 games of the season, but better than their overall average.

Spurs are 25 games into the season and still in a good position, which tells us that the xG numbers do not have a flawless predictive power and that Guglielmo Vicario is a good enough goalkeeper that he can subvert the data.

Opta ranks all goalkeepers in the league by the number of goals they have prevented, by taking the xG on target (xGOT) they have faced and subtracting the number of non-penalty goals they have actually conceded. Using this ‘goals prevented’ metric, Vicario is the best shot-stopper in the Premier League this season. Having conceded 30 non-penalty goals from an xGOT of 36.7, it can be inferred that Vicario has ‘prevented’ 6.7 goals, which puts him ahead of Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martinez (5.7) and Wolves’ Jose Sa(4.8) at the top of the ranking.

We can also look at how Spurs are conceding their chances. It is easy to point at some of the structural aspects of Postecoglou’s style — the high line, the full-backs pushed on — and say they are the source of Spurs’ issues, but Opta breaks xGA down into chances conceded from open play and set pieces. From open play, Spurs’ xGA figure is 10th-best in the league but from free kicks and corners, it is the fourth worst. Only Villa, Manchester United and Burnley have conceded more than Spurs’ 10.11 xG from set pieces.


Nor do Tottenham’s defensive issues necessarily stem from a lack of effort without the ball. Spurs come out at the top of Opta’s pressing stats. Postecoglou’s side have registered the most high turnovers in the league this season (266, ahead of Liverpoolsecond on 260). Using ‘passes per defensive action’ (PPDA, a proxy of a team’s pressing, with a lower number indicating a higher intensity), we can also see Spurs are one of the most aggressive pressing sides in the league, with a PPDA of 9.4, only marginally higher than Liverpool in first (9.0).

So, Spurs’ xGA is higher than before but their xG has gone up, too. Their xG per game this season averages at 1.76, the seventh-highest in the league. That is the best it has been over the last eight seasons, even better than the 1.72 from the 2017-18 season. If Tottenham can continue to create and convert chances at a good rate — while tightening up the defence — they should win more games than they lose.

The numbers tell us a story but our interpretation of them will ultimately be decided by what happens on the pitch. You can look at these figures and argue that Postecoglou’s style exposes his team to more risk than any previous Spurs manager — but then there are those low xGA figures from the first 10 games of the season, which suggest that his system is not inherently cavalier. Postecoglou’s Spurs can work in a way that is tight at the back and still exciting going forward. With a ‘keeper as good as Vicario, they can also limit the damage done by the chances they do concede.

Maybe the question is whether the spike in chances conceded was a feature of the way Postecoglou sets up his team or just a glitch caused by injuries and suspensions. Spurs’ numbers over the middle third of the season are not those of a team who qualify for the Champions League but they have started to improve again.

If all that hard work on the training pitch over the last two weeks pays off and Spurs tighten up at the back, then maybe this worrying spike will be consigned to the footnotes of history.
 
This is a bit long winded, but kind of confirms what some of us have been saying.

We are one of the best at creating attacking overloads, but not great at turning those overloads into good chances.

Definitely need better quality attackers.

 
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