You know, if Ade is sharp and not as disruptive a dressing room presence as rumored, I'd give him a go. I think he could even lead the line on his own in some games the way we did in 2011/12, with Eriksen replacing VdV and Lamela replacing Bale - though neither are as (proven) prolific as their counterparts, and it'd depend greatly on the 'conductor' replacement for Modric (Holtby is probably the closest in style).
Defense: Lloris, Walker Vlad Jan Rose
My concern there is the lack of aerial ability between the CBs. I don't want to play Dawson if we're playing a high-ish line, but the likes of West Ham have really exposed how vulnerable our backline is in the air. I think this is definitely a priority area to address in Jan - we need a CB with both passing ability and aerial dominance now that Kaboul is essentially kaput (
), and we need FBs that are much more stylistically similar to Rose and Walker than the likes of Naughton or Verts.
Fredericks has shown he has the pace and enthusiasm going forward at LB, but his defending isn't ready for this level, while Adam Smith is a huge risk. Coentrao on loan would be absolutely ideal, but I highly doubt he's attainable. If Fryers is as good at CB as has been suggested, and he's strong in the air I think we could give him a go - on balance though, even a slow Dawson is probably better due to experience.
Midfield: A trio of either: [Holding DM, Pressing CM, Attacking Playmaker] or [Hunting DM, Deeplying Playmaker, Attacking Playmaker].
The former might look like [Sandro/Capoue, Holtby/Paulinho/Dembele, Eriksen/Lamela], with the 'holder' asked to sit deeper and act more like a shield, and the 'presser' driving forward on occasion to attack the box but mainly tasked with pinching the ball back and shuttling it to the wings or the AM as quickly as possible.
The latter trio replicates Liverpool's most successful formation under Benitez (Mascherano, Alonso, Gerrard). With us it could look like [Sandro, Capoue/Holtby/Carroll (don't laugh, Carroll's actually been playing deep for QPR with a 'hunter' beside him in Barton), and Eriksen/Lamela]. Sandro protects the zone around the playmaking DM to buy the space+time to launch the fast transition, and the no. 10 would carry a higher burden of pure productivity in terms of goals and assists. I'm not sure we have the vision and speed of thought to carry this out though, even though I think Capoue has a surprising range of passing.
Tom Carroll is a real wildcard and needs some serious protection, but I am impressed with the way QPR fans are saying the same things about him that we keep deriding Henderson and Allen for - 'oh, all he does is pass and move a lot'. Well no shit, we could do with someone who does all those quiet things at speed and keeps our momentum moving forward. I've commented before that Carroll seems to play the ball to space rather than to feet, which means the receiver doesn't have to adjust their body shape or take extra touches; he doesn't do this consistently by any means, but he seems to do so more than a lot of our other players.
Attack:
For me it depends on who is at FB - if we have attacking FBs like Rose, then I think we can play narrower inverted AMs/WFs. If we have a conservative FB then I think we need a player more likely to stay out wide to create, like Townsend on the left.
In any case, I tend to like the triumvirate of [Wide Playmaker, Spearhead Striker, Wing Forward]. That doesn't mean two strikers are out of the picture, it means that the way we're positioned is more like a set of triangles - a "W" - than flat lines, and that creates more diagonal options for passes and runs. (Of course, we have to actually make those runs! Otherwise we're just compressing the W - congesting ourselves in front of their lines.)
The central striker here is pretty clearly Soldado, since we didn't pay mucho dinero for him to sit on the bench while Defoe collects offsides. For the creative wide playmaking option, Lamela would be my ideal on the right (gets involved in build up, can both score like a WF and create like a 10). The left is kinda up in the air: in a
de facto sense, I think Ade often ends up roaming in the LAM space - he creates, crosses, links up with the midfielders, drifts inside to support the other striker, etc - although he plays much more with his back to goal than a WF. If Rose is our LB then I don't think it's ludicrous to try out Ade on the left. Yeah he's very much a mobile striker rather than a WF or no. 10, but his role is different than an old-fashioned 'big man': in the flat 442, it's more like you lump it up to Ade/Crouch and he brings it down for the poacher to shoot, or the winger runs in a straight line and crosses to two strikers in the box - here Ade would play more like Siggy, building a triangle with Eriksen and Soldado and releasing Rose down the left or making the run out wide.
Townsend on the left would give us more width, but I think Ade is more intelligent and versatile in the final third, has more presence than Siggy, and holds the ball up under pressure better than our other attackers. For example, several times last night he faked a dribble inside to buy time for someone (Townsend) to make the outside run ---> cross, and he could constantly play it out wide as three West Ham shirts converged on him. That's pretty critical, because offloading the ball back to midfield every time someone pressures us has been a major part of our problems in attack - we end up playing safe passes in front of their defense, and finally we run out of ideas and Townsend comes inside and shoots. Or the ball just bounces back every time we try to really attack because no one up front can hold up the damn ball or they run with it too long and thereby lose it ... and when you combine that with our inconsistent team pressing of late and a mishmash back four, you get disaster.