Don't see me disagreeing there. What I'm saying is that the probability of conceding a goal increases slower than the number of set pieces/crosses conceded.
However, it does increase. As our plan is seemingly to almost allow the opposition to cross freely, our CBs must be absolute towers in our box. Dier comes close, but Toby is woefully short of the start we need.
We need to both lower the number of crosses coming in and improve the rate at which we win aerial headers. Don't forget Aubameyang and Lacathreat both won a few headers in our box but they were too crap to convert.
I do not have the data for our set pieces (free kicks conceded that are crossed + Corners) but they are part of our plan because we've set-up to defend them.
Sure, if you concede loads of corners and free-kicks because you are defending deeper, there's an increased probability that this is where the oppo might score from. Again I'd don't have the numbers but if by sitting deep means we now concede double the amount of FK's + corners the probability of how the oppo score against us from these situations I would GUESS is higher. But statistically, the actual % the oppo score from might well be worse than the ave 3% (for corners) because we are more specifically drilled to defend them.
But the other massive consideration here is when Jose says we are "controlling a game", THIS is exactly what he means. We are playing how we want to play, we are playing the percentages, we've chosen to give the oppo the absolute lowest percentage chance to score against us.
I've been banging on about corners for donkey's years, they are so low % there are barely worth taking. The original poster sited John Terry as the scorer of 1 in 10! Let's break that down, let's say Chavs have 10 corners per game, that means Terry scored 1 goal from 100 corners, 1%!!!! That's not a successful formula to rely on winning you football matches. However, it is if you are the defending team.
Now, if you are still with me; here are some stats on OPEN-PLAY crosses: (Arteta should take note)
This is analysis from every cross delivered in the Big 5 Leagues during 2019/20 (plus an extra seasons worth of EPL data in 2018/19 for good measure)
Number of open-play crosses: 60151
Number of open-play crosses leading to goals: 1462 (2.3%)
Percentage of crosses leading to goals in next 5 actions: 2%
We want teams to cross against us, we want them to do this because it's low percentage, it's so low that the likelihood is they will not score. We let Woolwich cross because it's low %, we let City cross because it's low percentage, the City example also factors in that they have perhaps the best crosser of the ball in the Wolrd and City score more goals than anyone with him putting in perfect balls to well-orcastrated moves to the front or back posts, but they are still low percentage and if you analyse what they do, it is possible to reduce this threat as we did so effectively by plugging the channel with Sissoko and PEH. We let teams cross because we spend our time on the training ground mostly working without the ball (Jose famous Tactical Periodization), if we are allowing teams to cross (corners + free kicks + open play crosses) then we can focus more on training against them, THIS IS US CONTROLLING THE GAME, we have reduced the oppo plays down to a manageable number of variables (short corner, near-post corner, on the pen spot corner, back post corner, who are their runners/blockers etc) these variables can be studied and prepared for when they are set pieces and thus reduce the risk even further.