Harry Kane

[KaneDomBadBoy]

Actually no. Can't get my brain around a better/clearer explanation but will do in bit. Maybe KaneDomBadBoy can help in the interim.

actually I just reread his post and don’t understand what he’s talking about either. I don’t think iz futbal understands the concept of xAssists.

 

[Deuterz]

The problem is we're led to believe Kane has been in decline for years, yet in 19/20 he was nearly 5 goals above his xG. Was that a better season then? We've also seen Jimenez glorified, when he scored 1.67 less than expected one season, and barely 0.30 above another. The only time he really exceeded it was when he only played 10 games.

The fact is, even for a top striker having a season or two barely going above it (or even going negative) is totally normal. Aguero had a couple like it and he's arguably the best ever PL striker. Same story with Luis Suarez, Benzema, and a bunch of other top strikers. In fact they all had multiple seasons with less, Harry's on one with .. still more.

So what we have is something really entirely normal, which doesn't prove any point other than to service an agenda. Lewandowski in 18/19 was 11 goals under expected for fuck sake, he's under it this season and he has 14 goals in 13 games.

Unless we're to believe pretty much all elite strikers aren't actually that good at finishing, what's the end goal here?

 

[iz futbal]

actually I just reread his post and don’t understand what he’s talking about either. I don’t think iz futbal understands the concept of xAssists.

Isnt xAssists just the number of assists expected from the passes.

But I agree. I dont think you are getting it.

If the expected assists are 8 based on the chances created for strikers all across the league, then surely we should expect more goals from those same chances (and hence more assists) as we dont have the worst strikers in the league.

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

The problem is we're led to believe Kane has been in decline for years, yet in 19/20 he was nearly 5 goals above his xG. Was that a better season then? We've also seen Jimenez glorified, when he scored 1.67 less than expected one season, and barely 0.30 above another. The only time he really exceeded it was when he only played 10 games.

All 3 of Kane's lowest 'goals above/under xG' seasons came since the 18/19 season. Almost every advanced statistic points to Kane's decline since the 18/19 season and the eye test also suggests that he's shit now as well.

Since 18/19, he's just been an above average striker overall, but the problem is that he's now just shit. Period.

Goals Above/Under xG Since 2018/19 Season
14/15: +3.8
15/16: +2.3
16/17: +9.2
17/18: +3.1
18/19: +0.9 (third lowest)
19/20: +4.7
20/21: +0.8 (second lowest)
21/22: -1.8 (lowest)

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

Isnt xAssists just the number of assists expected from the passes.

Yes that's correct. So Kane had 14 assists vs 7 expected assists last season. Based on his actual passes, he should have had only 7 assists. The fact that he had 14 means he benefited immensely from Son and Bale's world class finishing. Some would call their finishing flukes, particularly Son when he couldn't miss for a period of 10 games or so.

If the expected assists are 8 based on the chances created for strikers all across the league, then surely we should expect more goals from those same chances (and hence more assists) as we dont have the worst strikers in the league.

Ahh I see where you're getting at. You're saying that our players are better so their xG should generally be higher than the average player.

So... let me put another spin to this narrative. Going by what you're saying, Kane's -1 goal under his xG since the start of last season should be more like -3 to -5 goals under his xG. Based on what you're saying, his xG should be higher as a result of him being better than the average striker.

 

[Deuterz]

All 3 of Kane's lowest 'goals above/under xG' seasons came since the 18/19 season. Almost every advanced statistic points to Kane's decline since the 18/19 season and the eye test also suggests that he's shit now as well.

Since 18/19, he's just been an above average striker overall, but the problem is that he's now just shit. Period.

Goals Above/Under xG Since 2018/19 Season
14/15: +3.8
15/16: +2.3
16/17: +9.2
17/18: +3.1
18/19: +0.9 (third lowest)
19/20: +4.7
20/21: +0.8 (second lowest)
21/22: -1.8 (lowest)

Lol at including one season which is 11 games in. A few good games and he reverses that by the way, he's only below it by a tiny amount. Wanna have a cheeky bet on whether he goes over it by the end of the season?

What you really mean is he's been in the very normal range for top strikers and had 2 slightly over expected- same as guys like Suarez, better than some like Benzema. In between that he had one significantly over it. Totally normal, not worthy of scrutiny at all. He's in a good range. Lewandowski must be fucking awful and in decline with his -11 xG season and under xG season this year too. Dreadful!

The eye tests/stats show he's been shit this season and this season alone, and everyone will admit that. You have zero counter to the fact elite strikers have plenty of seasons under their xG, including FAR worse ones than Kane has ever had. He's NEVER been under it across a season - far better finisher than Lewa statistically then I'm sure you'll admit.

 

[iz futbal]

Yes that's correct. So Kane had 14 assists vs 7 expected assists last season. Based on his actual passes, he should have had only 7 assists. The fact that he had 14 means he benefited immensely from Son and Bale's world class finishing. Some would call their finishing flukes, particularly Son when he couldn't miss for a period of 10 games or so.


Ahh I see where you're getting at. You're saying that our players are better so their xG should generally be higher than the average player.

So... let me put another spin to this narrative. Going by what you're saying, Kane's -1 goal under his xG since the start of last season should be more like -3 to -5 goals under his xG. Based on what you're saying, his xG should be higher as a result of him being better than the average striker.

Well from just reviewing his assists video from last season on youtube. I think there should have been 9 goals from that. 6 or 7 were goals that we'd get mad at if they didnt score and a few of them were good finishing and some were just the son or bale scoring a worldy.

Then there would be chances that are missed from which we should have scored, so we should have really expected 12-13 goals from kanes key passes last season

As for the second point. Yea he barely got over the expected goals (which is always dragged down by donkeys from the lower part of the table) . So being just above average is obviously shite for his standards. And its even worse this season where he is one of the 'donkeys'

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

...as guys like Suarez, better than some like Benzema. In between that he had one significantly over it. Totally normal, not worthy of scrutiny at all. He's in a good range. Lewandowski must be fucking awful and in decline with his -11 xG season and under xG season this year too. Dreadful!

Those other players you mentioned bounced back stronger than ever.

Kane is bouncing back with 1 goal in 12 apps, 4% goal conversion rate and -2 goals under xG.

And he can't beat a defender to save his life.

He's been one of our worst players.

I'm afraid him being a 'top' striker is all but over.

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

Well from just reviewing his assists video from last season on youtube. I think there should have been 9 goals from that. 6 or 7 were goals that we'd get mad at if they didnt score and a few of them were good finishing and some were just the son or bale scoring a worldy.

Then there would be chances that are missed from which we should have scored, so we should have really expected 12-13 goals from kanes key passes last season

As for the second point. Yea he barely got over the expected goals (which is always dragged down by donkeys from the lower part of the table) . So being just above average is obviously shite for his standards. And its even worse this season where he is one of the 'donkeys'

Fair enough. So your point is that our players should be held to a higher standard hence their xG should be technically higher than the average player given the same situation/circumstances. I wouldn't disagree with that point.

 

[Deuterz]

Those other players you mentioned bounced back stronger than ever.

Kane is bouncing back with 1 goal in 12 apps, 4% goal conversion rate and -2 goals under xG.

And he can't beat a defender to save his life.

He's been one of our worst players.

I'm afraid him being a 'top' striker is all but over.

Lol Benzema had 3 out of 4 seasons significantly below xG in a row. Suarez also had back to back seasons below xG. And actually below btw, not the ridiculous standard you judge Kane at where even him being just a bit above means he's not a good finisher.

Yeah, again, terrible start to the season. Still doesn't mean the 'he's not a good finisher cos he was only slightly above for 2/3 seasons' agenda isn't fucking nonsense though.

 

[iz futbal]

Fair enough. So your point is that our players should be held to a higher standard hence their xG should be technically higher than the average player given the same situation/circumstances. I wouldn't disagree with that point.

Exactly , as xG includes numbers from the worst players in the league as well, which isnt really relevant to our players. We arent expecting to be 10th in the table , why would we expect our goalscorers to be going at the leagues average level.

 

[Deuterz]

Still waiting to hear why KaneDomBadBoy practically noshes off Lewandowski despite him being below xG this season and having had a recent season where he was fucking 11 below it, which means he was more wasteful that season than Kane has been his entire career. Had 2 other seasons below it btw.

Is it because he judges Kane by a totally different standard to everyone else? Actually don't bother answering that, we all know the answer.

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

Lol Benzema had 3 out of 4 seasons significantly below xG in a row. Suarez also had back to back seasons below xG. And actually below btw, not the ridiculous standard you judge Kane at where even him being just a bit above means he's not a good finisher.

Yeah, again, terrible start to the season. Still doesn't mean the 'he's not a good finisher cos he was only slightly above for 2/3 seasons' agenda isn't fucking nonsense though.

Benzema literally just finished 4th in the Ballon Dor. He’s been playing some of his best football over the last 18 months and his goals above xG is phenomenal. Kane is not.

Luis Suarez is also having a good 18 months despite being 34 and his goals above xG is very solid. Kane is not.

Kane looks like one of the worst Spurs players and does not look like he’ll come good given how physically fucked he looks.

 

[Deuterz]

Benzema literally just finished 4th in the Ballon Dor. He’s been playing some of his best football over the last 18 months and his goals above xG is phenomenal. Kane is not.

Luis Suarez is also having a good 18 months despite being 34 and his goals above xG is very solid. Kane is not.

Kane looks like one of the worst Spurs players and does not look like he’ll come good given how physically fucked he looks.

So what? Kane was phenomenal in 20/21, topping scoring and assist charts in England, but you still judge him based on that. You can say Kane's been shit this season without going back and pretending he wasn't good then either.

Yet had seasons off it. You'd have called him a shit finisher than and written him off I assume.

Yeah, never in football has a player had a bad period of form and recovered. He's totally done.

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

Still waiting to hear why KaneDomBadBoy practically noshes off Lewandowski despite him being below xG this season and having had a recent season where he was fucking 11 below it, which means he was more wasteful that season than Kane has been his entire career. Had 2 other seasons below it btw.

Is it because he judges Kane by a totally different standard to everyone else? Actually don't bother answering that, we all know the answer.

Because Lewandowski has +12 goals above his xG since that season. +9 goals above xG last season alone. Kane has been -2 goals under his xG since last season.

One has clearly turned it around since his poor finishing season and is on top of him game while one is shit.

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

So what? Kane was phenomenal in 20/21, topping scoring and assist charts in England, but you still judge him based on that. You can say Kane's been shit this season without going back and pretending he wasn't good then either.

Yet had seasons off it. You'd have called him a shit finisher than and written him off I assume.

Yeah, never in football has a player had a bad period of form and recovered. He's totally done.

He had the most goals last season but also had the highest xG. That has a lot to do with it. He was getting the best service.

 

[Deuterz]

He had the most goals but also has the highest xG. That has a lot to do with it. He was getting the best service.

Lewa has the most goals this season because he has the most service. Same with a bunch of other seasons.

Oh what, don't like that logic do we? Because not Kane.

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

Lewa has the most goals this season because he has the most service. Same with a bunch of other seasons.

Oh what, don't like that logic do we? Because not Kane.

Lewa scored the most goals AND had ridiculous goals above xG last season. +9 goals above xG had to be the most in the world.

Translation: the types of goals Lewa was scoring were far superior than Kane’s

 

[Deuterz]

Lewa scored the most goals AND had ridiculous goals above xG last season. +9 goals above xG had to be the most in the world.

Translation: the types of goals Lewa was scoring were far superior than Kane’s

You're so blatantly biased, what's even the point lmao? Kane's had no full seasons in his entire career under xG, Lewa has had 4. But Kane has a couple of seasons where he hasn't even been under his xG, and it's a sign of long term decline and he sucks at finishing, blah blah blah. Ignore the season wedged between it where he was +4, doesn't suit the narrative.

If Kane had a season with 11 under his xG, you'd make 10 thousand posts about how shit he is and how anyone could replace him. He's under it for part a season and you're on his back about it. Just admit you fucking hate the player and get at least some satisfaction for him being poor at the moment, it's so obvious.

Ignore other strikers faults, focus on the good bits. Ignore Kane's good bits, focus on his faults. Over and over and over again, confirmation bias packed arguments with tailored picked stats. Let's just wait for the next time Kane puts in a 6 or 7/10 performance and we pretend he was the worst player on the pitch again.

 

[KaneDomBadBoy]

You're so blatantly biased, what's even the point lmao? Kane's had no full seasons in his entire career under xG, Lewa has had 4. But Kane has a couple of seasons where he hasn't even been under his xG, and it's a sign of long term decline and he sucks at finishing, blah blah blah. Ignore the season wedged between it where he was +4, doesn't suit the narrative.

If Kane had a season with 11 under his xG, you'd make 10 thousand posts about how shit he is and how anyone could replace him. He's under it for part a season and you're on his back about it. Just admit you fucking hate the player and get at least some satisfaction for him being poor at the moment, it's so obvious.

Ignore other strikers faults, focus on the good bits. Ignore Kane's good bits, focus on his faults. Over and over and over again, confirmation bias packed arguments with tailored picked stats. Let's just wait for the next time Kane puts in a 6 or 7/10 performance and we pretend he was the worst player on the pitch again.

He was great pre 2018. I 100% agree with that. His advanced stats/metrics also support that. But I really don't care what Kane did 4-7 years ago. Just like how I don't care what Bale did for us 10+ years ago or what Dembele, Dele or Eriksen did for us years ago.

Post 2018, Kane hasn't been that good and I've always maintained this position. One look under the hood and you'll see that he's been declining. It's come to the point where he's lost so much pace/mobility, that he can hardly beat a defender. Losing the ball 23 times against Mura is not just a one off. He's clearly physically shot.

You can talk about the off seasons Lewandowski, Benzema etc. have had, but fact is, they're still on top of their game NOW and show little to no signs of slowing down. Kane on the other hand looks like shit.