Champions League Round of 16 Draw

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FOK

FOK

Who do you want?

Obviously a few spots to be decided but it’s shaping up nicely.

We’ll have six potential opponents. We can’t face anyone from our own nation (lol unlucky Liverpool :mourpointlaugh:)

And we obviously can’t get Frankfurt.

So that leaves us with the below.

Bruges

Inter Milan

AC Milan or Salzburg
- this looks more likely to be Milan. They’re one point ahead and they play Salzburg at home tonight. Anything other than a Salzburg away win at the San Siro and it’s Milan.

RB Leipzig or Shakhtar -
Interesting one. Leipzig are three points ahead but any Shakhtar win at home (well in Poland 🇵🇱) would mean Shakhtar go through as they smashed Leipzig on match day one 4-1 in Germany. Leipzig slight favourites as they only need a draw (and have changed manager since they opening day humiliation).

Dortmund

Benfica or PSG
Another interesting one. Level on points and both away tonight. PSG to Juve and benfica at Maccabi Haifa. I think you’d expect both to win away. Their H2H is identical, they’ve both Conceded 6 goals but PSG have scored 4 more giving them an edge. The closest permutation but I feel Juve are so shit PSG will smash them!

Anyway, fully appreciate I could have made this thread tomo but fuck it! Let’s celebrate being through who do you want?

Head says Bruges, I don’t want inter or Dortmund.

I’d like benfica if they finish 2nd, equally Salzburg or Shaktar would be fun.
 
The draw for the Champions League Round of 16 will take place on Monday, November 7 at 12.00 noon CET (11 am in London I think) - so not long to wait to find out who we play
 
The toughest is definitely whoever comes in 2nd between Benfica/PSG. Neither of these clubs has lost a game this season, domestically or abroad!

I’d like to avoid that group and the rest are all around the same level. Brugge is likely the easiest matchup but we tend to fuck those up.
 
Whomever we draw, we MUST find a way of playing in the 1st half. Any halfway decent team would have put 2/3 goals past us in the 1st half last night. We can't always be chasing. We are facing better teams now and must play accordingly.

Conte's system might work a lot better if we play our 1st half like our usual 2nd half. Then we can always sit back and defend after going ahead. It's been a while since I've seen a display of lethargy and non competitiveness (is that a word?) such as last night. If we can do it, let's do it early...we can go forward in this competition ONLY if we wake up...
 
FOK said:
Who do you want?

Obviously a few spots to be decided but it’s shaping up nicely.

We’ll have six potential opponents. We can’t face anyone from our own nation (lol unlucky Liverpool :mourpointlaugh:)

And we obviously can’t get Frankfurt.

So that leaves us with the below.

Bruges

Inter Milan

AC Milan or Salzburg
- this looks more likely to be Milan. They’re one point ahead and they play Salzburg at home tonight. Anything other than a Salzburg away win at the San Siro and it’s Milan.

RB Leipzig or Shakhtar -
Interesting one. Leipzig are three points ahead but any Shakhtar win at home (well in Poland 🇵🇱) would mean Shakhtar go through as they smashed Leipzig on match day one 4-1 in Germany. Leipzig slight favourites as they only need a draw (and have changed manager since they opening day humiliation).

Dortmund

Benfica or PSG
Another interesting one. Level on points and both away tonight. PSG to Juve and benfica at Maccabi Haifa. I think you’d expect both to win away. Their H2H is identical, they’ve both Conceded 6 goals but PSG have scored 4 more giving them an edge. The closest permutation but I feel Juve are so shit PSG will smash them!

Anyway, fully appreciate I could have made this thread tomo but fuck it! Let’s celebrate being through who do you want?

Head says Bruges, I don’t want inter or Dortmund.

I’d like benfica if they finish 2nd, equally Salzburg or Shaktar would be fun.
Click to expand...
Avoid PSG if they finish second happy to take on any of the others.
 
bonaspur23 said:
The toughest is definitely whoever comes in 2nd between Benfica/PSG. Neither of these clubs has lost a game this season, domestically or abroad!

I’d like to avoid that group and the rest are all around the same level. Brugge is likely the easiest matchup but we tend to fuck those up.
Click to expand...
i dont even wanna watch what messi, neymar and mbappe would do to the likes of dier and davies.
 
Fuck knows how this is calculated but some presumably clever German has come up with this table of probabilities regarding who draws who...

FgjEZuSWAAMOPu_
 
Bill Madrid said:
Fuck knows how this is calculated but some presumably clever German has come up with this table of probabilities regarding who draws who...

FgjEZuSWAAMOPu_
Click to expand...
Bit mindbending that. Feels like e.g. Bruges and Inter should be the same % for us to draw as they are both settled in 2nd place. But maybe it's also affected by there being two Italian clubs left and the order the balls could come out.
 
OffTheBench said:
Bit mindbending that. Feels like e.g. Bruges and Inter should be the same % for us to draw as they are both settled in 2nd place. But maybe it's also affected by there being two Italian clubs left and the order the balls could come out.
Click to expand...
I wish I had half the braincells and could apply myself like people like this do that give us this information.
 
Bill Madrid said:
Fuck knows how this is calculated but some presumably clever German has come up with this table of probabilities regarding who draws who...

FgjEZuSWAAMOPu_
Click to expand...
OffTheBench said:
Bit mindbending that. Feels like e.g. Bruges and Inter should be the same % for us to draw as they are both settled in 2nd place. But maybe it's also affected by there being two Italian clubs left and the order the balls could come out.
Click to expand...
Yiddy said:
I wish I had half the braincells and could apply myself like people like this do that give us this information.
Click to expand...
It's not very easy to explain but think of it like a giant probability tree.


So at the start there would be a 1 in 8 chance that each team would be drawn or a 12.5% chance. If say Tottenham were drawn first then we would be exempt from facing Liverpool and Milan and there would be a 1 in 6 chance (16.7%) of us facing each of the teams left. The odds of us both being drawn first and then getting a specific team are 1/8*1/6=1/48 which is about 2%, so the chance of us being drawn first and then drawing Brugge is about 2%, but obviously that's not the only scenario that we could draw brugge...


If lets say Napoli were drawn first and we were drawn second. Napoli would have a 1/8 chance to be drawn first and then a 1/5 chance to get each of their possible teams. We would then have a 1/7 chance to be drawn next. This is where the odds get tricky because if Napoli draw Frankfurt, who we are exempt from playing, we would still have a 1/6 chance of drawing any of the teams we have left. If Napoli draw any of the other 4 teams they can draw, we then can't draw that team and so we would have a 1/5 chance to play each of our 5 teams remaining. So again the odds of us being drawn against Brugge if Napoli were drawn first and we were drawn 2nd would be (1/8*1/5*1/7*1/6) + (1/8*1/5*1/7*1/5) + (1/8*1/5*1/7*1/5) + (1/8*1/5*1/7*1/5) = 23/8400 = 0.27%

Then you would have every scenario for if one of the other teams were drawn first and we were drawn second and so on for if we were drawn 3rd or 4th...
You would get the total chance of us playing Brugge by adding up all the invidual scenarios of us getting Brugge, so (chance of us Brugge if we were drawn first)+(chance of getting Brugge if drawn second)+...+(chance of us getting Brugge if drawn last)=Chance of us getting Brugge

With the two scenarios we worked out it would be 2+(0.27+chance of getting Brugge from other 6 teams being drawn first and us second)+(chance with all scenarios that we're drawn third)+...+(chance with all scenarios that we're drawn last)=13.82 as in the chart


Obviously it'll all be done by a computer so nobody really needs to manually work it out, and it gets a bit more complicated as you get more exemptions likely later in the draw.

Apologies if that's not very clear because it's not that easy to explain haha

Interestingly, as both us and Man City are both in the same pot and are from the same nation and both of us have our team that we are exempt from from the same nation (Germany), we both have the same odds of getting most of the teams.
 
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