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No change after today. Actually, we are a goal better than last season same game. 
Scored more goals and conceded less overall.
Still +10 "same" teams and 7 points better same games.
Scored more goals and conceded less overall.
| 2023-24 | 2022-23 | ||
| 18-6-8 | 65-49 | 16-5-11 | 58-51 |
Still +10 "same" teams and 7 points better same games.
| "SAME" TEAM | +/- | SAME GAME | +/- | |||||||||||
| 32 | Newcastle United | A | 0-4 | L | 10 | A | 1-6 | L | Newcastle United | 7 | A | 1-6 | L | |
| 33 | Woolwich | H | H | 0-2 | L | Manchester United | H | 2-2 | D | |||||
| 34 | Chelsea | A | A | 2-2 | D | Liverpool | A | 3-4 | L | |||||
| 35 | Liverpool | A | A | 3-4 | L | Crystal Palace | H | 1-0 | W | |||||
| 36 | Burnley (Leicester) | H | H | 6-2 | W | Aston Villa | A | 1-2 | L | |||||
| 37 | Manchester City | H | H | 1-0 | W | Brentford | H | 1-3 | L | |||||
| 38 | Sheffield United (Leeds) | A | A | 4-1 | W | Leeds United | A | 4-1 | W |
Sadly my sim is now conceding that there is 0.00000% chance of Spurs winning the comp ie not even one in 10 million.
Third place down to 0.006% ie practically zero.
Spurs 4th / 5th / 6th now at 54% / 42% / 4% respectively (although that seems generous after today's thumping at Newcastle).
Spurs Top 7 chances down slightly at 99.94%
Newcastle are now 58% chance of overtaking United and finishing top 6 or possibly better; 4% chance of finishing above Spurs.
Predicted finish Woolwich/City/Pool, Spurs/Villa, Newcastle/United, Spam, Chelsea, Brighton/Bournemouth/Wolves/Fulham, Brentford, Palace/Everton, Forest/Luton, Burnley, Sheffield (pretty much the same as Opta Football Predictions | The Analyst).
Newcastle are coming for us. That game against ManU might decide whether we finish 5th or 6th, on current form
We will almost certainly get 6 points at the very least.
Newcastle would have to go unbeaten and win at least 5 of the last 6 to finish above us.
Look who they’re playing though. They don’t have European or cup football left to distract them
Brentford, Brighton and Utd could all go either way. Assuming they even win the first 3 they'd have to win 2 of those games at least and draw one.
Even when they were playing their best football this season, they weren't able to go on a run like that, and that was against similar opposition as well.
Let's see how they do against Palace first!
With our GD realistically:
Worst we can finish is 12th.
One win and worst we can finish is 9th.
Edit:
As Newcastle will play United then two wins and worst we can finish is 8th if United win. If it's a draw or Newcastle win their superior GD likely means 9th is still worst.
Worst we can finish is 12th.
One win and worst we can finish is 9th.
Edit:
As Newcastle will play United then two wins and worst we can finish is 8th if United win. If it's a draw or Newcastle win their superior GD likely means 9th is still worst.
Last edited:
That's a pretty depressing post - what's the worst we can do?
I think I'm going to have a little cry now.
