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Yeah but it's probability calculated based on chosen variables, and reality is that a manager who knows what he's doing has a huge impact. It's one of the reasons Woolwich have a history of being up there. But perhaps that isn't accounted for or given enough weight in this calculator.

If half way through season in a season such as this a calculator gives 89% of the probability of winning to two teams when it's this close, the probability calculator is weak.
How much impact does a manager have though? No one has been able to actually come up with a decent calculation of the impact of a particular player in relation to a team's ability to win, let alone a manager.

Caley's model predicts what it does based on the data which he puts into it. If you think it's weak, he'd love a critique on how he could improve it. Not liking the results though, is not the same time as them being wrong. It's not a right/wrong kind of thing. It's just about what's most likely. And based on previous seasons and available data, it's most likely that we won't win the title.
 
We are 4th in the table regardless of how many shots we have on goal.
But the point is where might we be had our conversion rate been higher or, should not Poch be addressing our below average conversion rate?
The Newcastle game was a perfect example.
Our pass rate in the attacking 3rd was the highest for the season and 16 chances created yet we lost. Why? Because we failed to build on our 1 goal lead.
My approach to stats, at the moment, is that they are useful in highlighting inefficiencies in team/individual performance i.e. I try to evaluate the
stats from a coaching perspective.
Don't confuse the patterns of historical data with models (using the same data) that try to predict the probability of outcome.
The former cannot be denied, the latter are maybe better left in the world of accumulators.
 
But the point is where might we be had our conversion rate been higher or, should not Poch be addressing our below average conversion rate?
The Newcastle game was a perfect example.
Our pass rate in the attacking 3rd was the highest for the season and 16 chances created yet we lost. Why? Because we failed to build on our 1 goal lead.
My approach to stats, at the moment, is that they are useful in highlighting inefficiencies in team/individual performance i.e. I try to evaluate the
stats from a coaching perspective.
Don't confuse the patterns of historical data with models (using the same data) that try to predict the probability of outcome.
The former cannot be denied, the latter are maybe better left in the world of accumulators.
Wenger's really big on the models, rather than the data. He's been talking about expected goals in his press conferences as a way he evaluates the team and individual players.
 
I am going to start by saying that we may just have to agree to disagree, but I cannot disagree strongly enough with this.

First, clubs don't agree with any of what you've just said. Every Premier League club, and in fact, most lower-league clubs in England (and across Europe for that matter) feel that statistical analysis of games and players is a vital component of how they prepare for matches and recruit players and managers. They all have people who go through the data that Opta and others provide, and match it up with video clips.

So, it's not an American fad, despite what mouthbreathing morons like Martin Samuel like to think because math has terrified them since primary school.

To rebut one specific point you make though, this: It realy doesnt matter if you have 2 shots or 10 and win 2-0, its 3 points. If anything you are a better team if you score more with less? is completely untrue.

Yes, you've won the game. But will you win the next one playing the same way? You might be able to win on only two shots, but that means that you can guarantee you will score, on only those two shots, and you can stop any number of shots your opponent takes from going in. The reality in football is that baring a major difference in talent between the two sides (like say, Barcelona vs a non-league team of paraplegics), that isn't the case. No one, not even Diego Maradona at his cocaine-inspired peak, is going to score every time on each shot, or every other shot. The best can manage perhaps 2 in 10 (which is roughly where Messi is at). So, if you're counting on scoring off one 1 or 2 shots, you're going to score once every 5 games or so.

The best teams create more shots, and win through volume. There is no team on the planet who has shown an ability to be better than average at conversion over the long term, bar the absolute top sides (Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich). And they are only slightly more efficient (like 2 goals every 10 shots versus 1.5 goals every 10 shots).

So, yes you might have won 2-1 scoring on only 2 shots. But do that again. And again. For 38 games. No one can. So how you play matters.

That's where all these stats that those of us in this thread are talking about come from. It's about measuring what's happened, and looking for predictive patterns that show what is likely to happen next. And then taking those patterns and applying them to how a team plays so that they can make tiny improvements, or cut out bad choices by recognizing what works, and what doesn't.

Good teams consistently shoot more than their opponents, and shoot from places on the pitch that are more likely to lead to the shot going in. They also pass in ways which are more likely to lead to those better quality shots. This is a universal truth across the game. Every league features the same kinds of teams at the top. Good players also have similar patterns. And by measuring them, teams can sort of get an idea of what to look for when scouting replacements.

That doesn't mean they don't use scouts and only use spreadsheets. Spurs head of Player Identification uses stats and video to filter out players who aren't able to do what we want. Then he and others scout the hell of out them in person to watch the things which the data doesn't show, to find the best possible fit.

Pochettino did this to figure our Eric Dier could play DM for us. Guardiola uses data to figure out what tactical changes he wants to make during matches. The data gives you the idea of how you play, so you can figure out what changes you need to make to win more. The eye-test matters because you can see in real life what's going on. The data matters because it lets you look at things you may have missed because you can't see everything at once.
Ok, your point is?....joking, thanks for the reply?

I can accept that clubs use data to support decisions. This has nothing to do with the result and the teams postion in the PL. If you finish top you have more points, bottom, less. A game can be one sided and the dominating team loses, thats football. You use the phrase the beautiful game, states are evetything but?
As I said before, if you beat up States they will tell you anything.
Martinas goal against Scum, he could hit that another 30 times and never score, thats football. States would never allow such a briliant goal to be scored. Laws of average does.
 
But the point is where might we be had our conversion rate been higher or, should not Poch be addressing our below average conversion rate?
The Newcastle game was a perfect example.
Our pass rate in the attacking 3rd was the highest for the season and 16 chances created yet we lost. Why? Because we failed to build on our 1 goal lead.
My approach to stats, at the moment, is that they are useful in highlighting inefficiencies in team/individual performance i.e. I try to evaluate the
stats from a coaching perspective.
Don't confuse the patterns of historical data with models (using the same data) that try to predict the probability of outcome.
The former cannot be denied, the latter are maybe better left in the world of accumulators.
I will never stop watching football with that natural feeling for the game. You see how the game is going, how players are performing and so on. States will never have logic, never have feelings for the game. States can tell u whatever you want. Win every game , you win the league.
 
Wenger's really big on the models, rather than the data. He's been talking about expected goals in his press conferences as a way he evaluates the team and individual players.
I wonder what his model predicted about the game at S'ton?
There's just too much 'randomness' in football to use probability data to evaluate performance... I just don't see it (at least not at the moment).
 
Wenger's really big on the models, rather than the data. He's been talking about expected goals in his press conferences as a way he evaluates the team and individual players.
Sorry Jsus I misunderstood the point of your post...yep, I can see that using expected goals as a benchmark against performance/under performance has value, much in the same manner as points per game for example.
Apologies....
 
Ok, your point is?....joking, thanks for the reply?

I can accept that clubs use data to support decisions. This has nothing to do with the result and the teams postion in the PL. If you finish top you have more points, bottom, less. A game can be one sided and the dominating team loses, thats football. You use the phrase the beautiful game, states are evetything but?
As I said before, if you beat up States they will tell you anything.
Martinas goal against Scum, he could hit that another 30 times and never score, thats football. States would never allow such a briliant goal to be scored. Laws of average does.
That doesn't make any sense.

The law of averages is "stats" as you define them. That's the point.

There's two kinds of analytics, data describing events that have happened, and models using that data to find patterns that predict what is most likely to happen. Indeed, stats, like strawmen, rhetoric, laws or referees, if abused, will tell you anything you want. That's not germaine to the argument. You feel the use of stats contributes nothing because the final table is the only thing that matters. The final table is how to determine who's the Champion at the end of the year. That final table also doesn't tell you anything about how anyone played, or how they might get better. That's where the stats have value for teams and others. Stats are a tool that lets you look at how and why something happened, so you can do something about making it more or less likely to happen again. That's what teams need to be able to get better, win more games, and move higher up that final table.
 
I thought the idea of this thread was just for ppl who are interested in stats, wether or not they matter has been 'discussed' ad nausium already
 
How much impact does a manager have though? No one has been able to actually come up with a decent calculation of the impact of a particular player in relation to a team's ability to win, let alone a manager.

Caley's model predicts what it does based on the data which he puts into it. If you think it's weak, he'd love a critique on how he could improve it. Not liking the results though, is not the same time as them being wrong. It's not a right/wrong kind of thing. It's just about what's most likely. And based on previous seasons and available data, it's most likely that we won't win the title.
It's not about not liking the result. I'd like it to say we are top with 100% chance but that wouldn't be realistic either. It's not even about Spurs, if the season was different and it was Liverpool where we are you'd have to agree they have more than a 7% chance of winning it at this stage. From a likelihood point of view you can't give 89% of the probability to two teams that are barely ahead of anyone and have been very inconsistent. The inconsistency alone has to spread the probability about more. I just don't think it is realistic if it has such a strong prediction for two teams when it is as close as it is. Maybe it's not a manager thing, btw, it was just my first thought. I would expect a calculator like this to produce a less strong indication half way through the season because the data doesn't support it imv.
 
That doesn't make any sense.
mathematical f averages is "stats" as you define them. That's the point.

There's two kinds of analytics, data describing events that have happened, and models using that data to find patterns that predict what is most likely to happen. Indeed, stats, like strawmen, rhetoric, laws or referees, if abused, will tell you anything you want. That's not germaine to the argument. You feel the use of stats contributes nothing because the final table is the only thing that matters. The final table is how to determine who's the Champion at the end of the year. That final table also doesn't tell you anything about how anyone played, or how they might get better. That's where the stats have value for teams and others. Stats are a tool that lets you look at how and why something happened, so you can do something about making it more or less likely to happen again. That's what teams need to be able to get better, win more games, and move higher up that final table.
No on every level. States do not tell you how teams have play, they are cold mathematical numbrs reflecting half truths. A miss hit shot is seen as a shot on target. A ref/ linesmen getting it wrong does not appear on the states! When a team scores from a ref error or is given off side incorrectly, the game result ccan change. If we win the PL , who gives a toss how we played. Law of averages is , it when all evens itself out over a season . You get a decision this week, you dont next. States come from USA sport. We have embraced this nonesence-sorry. States are cold facts, no feelings or understanding of the game and can say anything you wish.
 
No on every level. States do not tell you how teams have play, they are cold mathematical numbrs reflecting half truths. A miss hit shot is seen as a shot on target. A ref/ linesmen getting it wrong does not appear on the states! When a team scores from a ref error or is given off side incorrectly, the game result ccan change. If we win the PL , who gives a toss how we played. Law of averages is , it when all evens itself out over a season . You get a decision this week, you dont next. States come from USA sport. We have embraced this nonesence-sorry. States are cold facts, no feelings or understanding of the game and can say anything you wish.

I love your direct style and your avatar, but have a word with your provider regarding their spell check function please, mate. No disrespect intended.
 
I love your direct style and your avatar, but have a word with your provider regarding their spell check function please, mate. No disrespect intended.
Thanks for the feedback - no disrespect taken.
(my spelling is poor)
I use a small tablet sometimes which I have two problems, no spell check and Im not able to see the words to clearly. Now Im on a Mac with a 27 inch screen and spell check.

States / stats sorry?
 
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Yes, interesting for a very brief moment then, who gives a shite, kicks in.
Without stats as this, I could tell you all we are doing better than last season, the Chaves are shite and Utd cant win for toffee. Villa are going down with Sunderland and Leicester are over performing. The most important thing is, we keep getting results and the rest will take care of itself.

This doesn't address the fact that the Scum will probably win the PL, unless someone comes good very quick?
 

Lets hope it finishes this way. It all means nothing unless we achieve the potential these stats are suggesting at the end of the season?

We have a long way to go and suggest we take each game etc.. i read your post regarding other results going against us over the weekend before we play, this is how easy the table can change regardless on how we have done so far. Its not about states , its winning games and getting 3 points.
 
But the point is where might we be had our conversion rate been higher or, should not Poch be addressing our below average conversion rate?
The Newcastle game was a perfect example.
Our pass rate in the attacking 3rd was the highest for the season and 16 chances created yet we lost. Why? Because we failed to build on our 1 goal lead.
My approach to stats, at the moment, is that they are useful in highlighting inefficiencies in team/individual performance i.e. I try to evaluate the
stats from a coaching perspective.
Don't confuse the patterns of historical data with models (using the same data) that try to predict the probability of outcome.
The former cannot be denied, the latter are maybe better left in the world of accumulators.
Our conversion rate is actually pretty high at the moment. Fourth highest in the league. Hardly average. Any higher and honestly I would be worried that it was bound for a correction.

We've scored pretty well and reliably this season. Some results haven't gone our way and we've dropped points but that happens in football and I think you're splitting hairs to find a culprit.

Football is a low scoring game, and therefore a game of volatile results and upsets. You can't look at a single result e.g. Newcastle and form from that alone that we have problems converting chances.

Patterns do exist, in the way that teams play and the sort of chances that they create. Shot statistics have actually done pretty well in predicting the state of the league thus far this season. For one, they suggested early on that Spurs this season have been taking a lot of quality shots, and converting them at a respectable rate. And true enough we've been climbing the table. It also suggested while Man U was still at the top of the table that they were taking relatively few shots, generally of poor quality.

Conversion ratios are notoriously fickle. You ask where we would be with a higher conversion ratio, and true enough the answer would probably be Leicester. But their conversion rate does not look sustainable. Coupled with an average defense, the shot statistics predict that they'll slowly start to fall off.

Honestly, they're far more reliable as a projection of future results than traditional "picks" by commentators based on whatever dull platitude can be produced to offer an excuse for why one team is ranked higher than another, to fill some space on a newspaper or to fill some broadcasting slot with mindless shit masquerading as inside knowledge.
 
We are 4th in the table regardless of how many shots we have on goal.

They are trying to predict the future beyond just using points per game extrapolated over the remainder of the season......nothing wrong with trying to apply some logic to that, as we all know the league won't finish exactly as it is today.
 
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