How many points to clinch top spot or top four?

[Super Jan Fan]

Football 365 have a bunch of predictions for 2017 and this one is spot on I think:

A record points total will be needed for a top-four finish
In the last two seasons, 66 and 65 points would have been enough to finish in fourth place in the Premier League, with the average over the last ten years being 66.5 points. The highest total required in Premier League history (in a 20-team league) is 73, while in 1998/99 fifth-placed West Ham gained only 57 points.

This season, those records could be blown away. With the biggest clubs spending heavily on their squads in response to Leicester City’s surprise success (and their own disappointment), and with high-profile, successful new managers in place, the current top six have created their own mini-league. In 57 matches against bottom-half teams this season, they have won 44, drawn ten and lost only three.

Woolwich, in fourth place, are heading for 78 points. Tottenham in fifth are on course for 76 and Manchester United in sixth on course for 70. You could argue that all three of those have suffered blips, but that is merely in comparison with the impressive form of those above them. They’re all still on more points than at this stage last season.

Chelsea are out in front and likely to finish top, but they haven't done it yet. Regardless, how many points will be needed to win the title this season? And what do people think will be required for a top four finish?

To win it I think someone is going to need something like 89 points.

I think a high points tally will be required for top four. 78 or 79 points. It's hard to predict who will miss out, but I think Woolwich will fall short. Who else from the top six, I don't know.

 

[CA Spur]

This season reminds me a lot of 2012/13. Hopefully we won't be on the outside looking in this time around. I think it'll take 74 or 75 for 4th.

 

[Alli-Luya]

Yeah, i reckon it'll take about 74 this year. No idea about the winning total - i think all the Conte love will collapse at some point, but they may have enough of a cushion to take it. 86-87 points?

 

[Mick Cooper]

I think we will all remaining 20 games - each by a +3 goal difference.

so we should finish with 96 points and +80 GD

which should clinch it.

simples!

 

[Don Giovanni]

I reckon 80 points will get you top 4 this season.

 

[DukeUSA]

seeing as 39 or 40 points is likely to be the line at the half way point I would think that getting 75 would be the minimum and that is not likely to be a very comfortable number. I can see this league devolving into three leagues. The top six, the middle eight and the bottom six could very easily be pretty static from now on in. The bottom six has been static since October when Palace started collapsing and the same for the top since the beginning of the Chelsea charge. In order to keep pace any team in the top six is going to have to avoid defeat in all but the worst of circumstances to any member of the bottom six and the middle eight. With the margins as fine as they have been you are likely to pay a price for any dropped points.

 

[Art Vandelay]

the top 4 average of 66.5 may not even get 5th this season. Seriously competitive this season.
20 games left and I think we may need around 40 points to get top 4. 2pts per game is what we averaging this season and what we were averaging before our late season implosion last season.

Keep doing what we are doing essentially is what I'm saying. Do that and take a scalp or two above us and we'll get there.

 

[Suzyfree]

There are still many variables: European commitment, AFCON commitment, January transfer business.

It's alright to drop points, so long as your closest rivals drop more than you.

 

[Fattynomates]

I reckon as long as we get more points than the bottom 16 we should be alright....,

 

[Super Jan Fan]

seeing as 39 or 40 points is likely to be the line at the half way point I would think that getting 75 would be the minimum and that is not likely to be a very comfortable number. I can see this league devolving into three leagues. The top six, the middle eight and the bottom six could very easily be pretty static from now on in. The bottom six has been static since October when Palace started collapsing and the same for the top since the beginning of the Chelsea charge. In order to keep pace any team in the top six is going to have to avoid defeat in all but the worst of circumstances to any member of the bottom six and the middle eight. With the margins as fine as they have been you are likely to pay a price for any dropped points.

When there really was a top four it was often about who won their games against their rivals. That was what decided who won the league. Hasn't been like that a long time but this season has that feel to it, except there is a top six. So those head to head games are all important.

 

[DeeGee]

How long have we got to achieve something before we start losing players like Kane, Dele, Rose and even the manager?
Obviously I feel the manager and the players want to stay until we move into the new gaff, but it's going to be a while before we are on financial competitive terms even with Liverpool and Woolwich.
So what another 4 yrs max before clubs with more money and the chance of titles and consistent CL tempt our manager and/or best players?
4 yrs tops?
Or do you think our best players are loyal/ love Spurs/ get paid enough that they will stay regardless?

 

[Super Jan Fan]

How long have we got to achieve something before we start losing players like Kane, Dele, Rose and even the manager?
Obviously I feel the manager and the players want to stay until we move into the new gaff, but it's going to be a while before we are on financial competitive terms even with Liverpool and Woolwich.
So what another 4 yrs max before clubs with more money and the chance of titles and consistent CL tempt our manager and/or best players?
4 yrs tops?
Or do you think our best players are loyal/ love Spurs/ get paid enough that they will stay regardless?

In my opinion we have this season and next to win something, and then we have a new stadium that players will want to be involved with, so I think we have three seasons. I think we will continue to improve in that time as players and manager gain more experience, so I feel good about the situation. I think as well that the new stadium will get paid off surprisingly quickly because of all the ever increasing tv money and sponsorship deals. I mean, If we have £150M coming in for the kit for five years and stadium naming rights which will be even higher, and the huge tv money, increased gate receipts, corporate income, and NFL cash, then I think the new stadium is going to bring us much closer to the likes of Liverpool and Woolwich.

What we are going to see over the next decade is a true top six where any of them can win things. The cash from the CL is less important than it used to be in comparison to other revenue streams so although well worth having is going to matter less for those who miss out - so long as you don't miss out two or three seasons running.

 

[scott]

How long have we got to achieve something before we start losing players like Kane, Dele, Rose and even the manager?
Obviously I feel the manager and the players want to stay until we move into the new gaff, but it's going to be a while before we are on financial competitive terms even with Liverpool and Woolwich.
So what another 4 yrs max before clubs with more money and the chance of titles and consistent CL tempt our manager and/or best players?
4 yrs tops?
Or do you think our best players are loyal/ love Spurs/ get paid enough that they will stay regardless?

I feel like the english players will be more loyal & patient. At the moment I'd say Rose, walker, kane & alli could go to a bigger team.
But they are guaranteed starters for us with much less pressure. They would be wise to stay a few more years!

I would think the foreign players will be a bit less patient which isn't helped by the fact they have options abroad too.
So lloris, jan, toby, eriksen & lamela could all be tempted with a move.
It depends on if a bigger team wants them & who that team is, so we could get lucky.

Thankfully no big teams have tried to get lloris.
So we might get away with him staying even though he should be at a team who wins things.

I left out dembele because he is a bit older & carries around that injury.
Can't see a bigger team going for him even though he is a 1 off & so crucial to us.

I think all our best players are under contract for a good few years? Lloris just signed a new contract recently.

You would think none of the other players not mentioned would be wanted by bigger teams.

Not worried about any of our best players wanting to leave this or next season!

 

[Tomo]

How long have we got to achieve something before we start losing players like Kane, Dele, Rose and even the manager?
Obviously I feel the manager and the players want to stay until we move into the new gaff, but it's going to be a while before we are on financial competitive terms even with Liverpool and Woolwich.
So what another 4 yrs max before clubs with more money and the chance of titles and consistent CL tempt our manager and/or best players?
4 yrs tops?
Or do you think our best players are loyal/ love Spurs/ get paid enough that they will stay regardless?

For players to leave other clubs need to come in for them who are stronger. For me Dele Alli and Rose are our biggest prizes in terms of players who could improve the likes of Man City for example.

If we keep Poch then I expect most will stay, lose Poch and the floodgates could open. Our stadium has to be a point of difference, as soon as we move into the new stadium we need to accept that our wages structure needs to be like Woolwich or Liverpool, our new stadium has to be the point we move up financially otherwise Poch and the players could lose faith in the project in terms of going up to the next level.

 

[Suzyfree]

It's how many points your closest rivals drop. As long as they drop more than you, you win.

 

[Chucklevision82]

It's how many points your closest rivals drop. As long as they drop more than you, you win.

 

[Art Vandelay]

 

[pleb]

I think we can beat the Chavs, Woolwich and United and draw with Bin-Dippers away if we can do that we will go close to winning it!