Europa League as our best chance of Champions League place next season

[justin]

In every game of the europa so far, we have looked awful. Even against some half cut Cypriot barmen. There could be lots of reasons for this, but the funny thing as a club we are obsessing about getting into a competition we have no chance of winning. It would be good if we could at least hold our own in the el first.

We are not in good form, but somehow we are still in the race for 4th. I would of been over the moon if someone had said this 3 months ago.

I think our europa journey will come to an end tomorrow, and to be honest, it deserves to be. We have been poor in it.

If we can keep within 3 or 4 points of those northern idiots we might sneak 4th but it's an outside chance.

Our season is all about sunday, not about qualifying for a competition we have zero chance of winning.

 

[SchmoodSpur2013]

You'll be happy if we lose on Sunday?

AAAAH SHIT! Wasn't thinking. Was referring to purely League places. But yer, EL it is.

 

[Deckard]

As much as I am loving being int the Cup final and where we are in EL and in the League, I am not necessarily expecting any trophy this season, a season that has already been fantastic and gave me a sense of strenght about our future like no other did

Having said that, fortunately we have difficult choices to make and there's no clear cut on what's the best solution.

Personally I think we should take a risk and play a strong line up in Florence as well as obviously try to win the Cup Final (which rationally is quite unlikely to happen, but I don't care).
The reasons for this are:

- we have low chanches to win the Cup Final anyway

- it's the way we are. Audere Est Facere
- it's better to fail aiming high than to succeed aiming low to fail anyway
- we have even lower chances to get into the top 4 throught the league
- going through in the Europa League will boost the payers morale for the final. Being eliminated will be a morale blow for the players who will have played in Florence and will put even more pressure on anybody who haven't and will play in Wembley

As for whether to give priority to the Premiership or the EL, rationally I think we have low chances to win the EL, but even lower to get into the top 4, because :
- on the EL we are better than anyone else, apart from victimpool an maybe Napoli (if we play them over two legs we may win or lose, anything can happen)
- in the Premiership woolwich always have a strong finish and both woolwich and victimpool have more depth. Southampton are inferior to us but have better fixtures

However, it's not like this week we have to give up fighting in the Premiership: we will try to win every game anyway, and see what happens

COYS

 

[Louisiana Hotspur]

When it comes to probabilities, you should always follow the money. Given that the betting odds are not even close, your gut feeling is obviously not correct about the difficulty of advancing to win Europa starting from the round of 32.

 

[Louisiana Hotspur]

I totally agree, and I stay with my opinion.

Also, there's another aspect: odds are set also with the aim making a bet attractive. If there is such a difference between the two is also because much more people think that the Top 4 is an easier target

Odds are not just "set." They change to reflect where the money is flowing, which is diversified over a crowd of bettors. It is impossible for the individual bettor to beat the system of "the wisdom of the crowds" which proves accurate over a large sample of bets. To analogize to a casino, the house never, ever, loses. You betting Europa league is therefore the wrong bet as the betting odds are not even close. You might get lucky and win a single bet, which is always a bit of a thrill, but you would be a fool to place your family's savings on a single bet that is less probable than the other, and then just rely on luck.

 

[shawry1882]

I love Thfc and am locked in TTID, however wishing/hoping does not conceal present reality.
1. Will be lucky to get past Fiorentina.
2. If above achieved, even with best starting I doubt we are at level to win the final.
3. If we can't achieve 4th or above hand on heart this just declares we are still short of being CL quality (ie being able to progress out of group stage).

But with Poch continuing to develop squad plus a couple of key signings, no doubt I would love to have us in CL.
At the moment, we just need to concentrate on this weeks games.

 

[OffTheBench]

I don't think it was a great chance of silverware. The Lge Cup is/was a great chance and unfortunately by playing some of our best players tonight, we've weakened our chances. Our best players should have stayed at home, poor management by Poch.

I think there could've been some merit in bringing the whole squad, to keep them all together and preparing for the final. But I hate half measures in games, and that's what we got tonight- either play the A team and get through, or start with Paulinho and the rest of the rejects and take the risk. We've ended up, just like we would've with AVB, with several tired first teamers, for nothing.

 

[Jayc1]

This was winnable, and the lads spurned their chances in both legs. It's a young team, and errors are part of the learning process.

Fuck off with your rational logic.

 

[docomospur]

"there's always next year", right?

 

[Mrs Perryman]

"there's always next year", right?

This should be our motto and bin Audere est Facere

Only kidding!!!!!

 

[FightingIllini]

The teams we have to "beat" to finish 4th are better than the teams we'd have to beat to win the Europa League. That's where that thought comes from.

 

[Spöörs]

... but if we somehow would manage to get to the final, or even a semi-final of the EL, damn i would be excited. Much more than by a league cup final to be honest.

 

[OffTheBench]

I

I think the best way to compare is to check the odds.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/winner

typical price, 20/1 to win the EL

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

typical price,11/2 to finish top 4

No comparison really. According to punters/bookies we've got a far better chance of finishing top 4, and I agree with that assessment.

For me, we should send the reserves to Florence and concentrate on the domestic front.

From what I read, Poch is taking the 'full Monty' to Italy, and I think it's a major mistake.

To me, as I've said time and again since our scandalous January inactivity we've gonna fuck it up on all fronts, and it's gonna be an ultimately disappointing season.

We'll probably get EL again, and guess what, it will be probably be 'rinse and repeat' as ENIC fail to back us again, and leave us 'best of the rest', but hopelessly behind the 'big 5'.

We'll doubtless lose Lloris and Eriksen in the next couple of years, etc, etc, e fucking cetera.

I agree with the top half- those were the odds I was talking about.

 

[Louisiana Hotspur]

Something they threw out there on the Spurs Show that does make sense: if fielding a weak side at Fiorentina does get us bounced from Europa, not only does it allow our strongest team to play on Sunday, it also leaves us competing with a fresh squad once a week for top 4 against teams that are still in multiple competitions, Woolwich and Liverpool still being in THREE competitions each. Given our remaining league fixtures, it wouldn't be a bad spot to be in.

 

[Louisiana Hotspur]

As for whether to give priority to the Premiership or the EL, rationally I think we have low chances to win the EL, but even lower to get into the top 4

You do realize we still have to get through 8 more games of knockout competition against increasingly quality opposition, sandwiched between league games, to win Europa. You think that's more likely than playing our best eleven just once a week and closing a gap of 3 points in the league?

 

[Deckard]

When it comes to probabilities, you should always follow the money. Given that the betting odds are not even close, your gut feeling is obviously not correct about the difficulty of advancing to win Europa starting from the round of 32.

Probabilities are very important, I agree, but they don' give is certainty: they just help us to deal with it.
Gut feeling is irrational, but not awlays wrong, and sometimes wins/loses games on its own. Maybe more than probability, maybe less.

The great thing is that at this point of the season we have something to discuss about, rather than languishing in mid table with no cup to play in!

 

[Louisiana Hotspur]

Probabilities are very important, I agree, but they don' give is certainty: they just help us to deal with it.
Gut feeling is irrational, but not awlays wrong, and sometimes wins/loses games on its own. Maybe more than probability, maybe less.

The great thing is that at this point of the season we have something to discuss about, rather than languishing in mid table with no cup to play in!

This debate is usually resolved with a simple hypothetical question: Given the wide disparity in betting odds between the two, which would you bet your family's savings on if you had to choose one?

 

[pleb]

This debate is usually resolved with a simple hypothetical question: Given the wide disparity in betting odds between the two, which would you bet your family's savings on if you had to choose one?

Yes I bet 80 quid!

 

[Benjamin]

Poch still hasnt got the squad he wants.

This is purely speculation. If he wasn't happy he could have easily put up a fight in January. He didn't, and we didn't get anyone that could immediately help us.

TFC pod made a good point, that everything after this weekend is practically like a new season for us. We won't have Wembley weighing on our heads and we'll be able to get on with our season. With no Europa we can push with our A squad and I think that might be the best option. Manchester United are about to have an extremely rough April. They will absolutely drop no less than 6 points. Given how tight the race for 4th is right now, I think that we could easily finish above them. My fear is Liverpool.

 

[Buggot]

How do you work that one out?

Fiorentina are better away than at home and they were lucky to even get a draw. We completely wrecked them in the first 30 mins or so. And this is with Paulinho and Soldado.

I think if we try we can put this to bed quickly and fairly easily. The key is scoring first, as this means they have to attack us and open up.

If they score first I can see us panicking, them sitting deep and defending. Worst nightmare.

I feel the same. I think with our best team out for Europa we'll smash them (I jinxed it, I know) by a ton of goals. This would help the morale and no matter what their fitness is they'll be pumped up for a final. All our boys aren't like those rich footballers who think lowly of this cup, we'll be up for it more than Chelsea.