We're creating a lot of chances

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Kalyl said:
One: we are prone to rushing a bit while in the final third, and take shots that are very unlikely of being scored but because there's an opening to test the keeper we go for it at once even though kneading the opponont and working our way to a good opening could be the better option[…]

2: that we are very keen (and good) at going on the counter. There are several possible reasons for this and
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This is interesting, and Raitei Raitei suggested something similar. I, too, "feel" like we score a lot on the counter. Luckily, WhoScored breaks goals down by kind (Open play, counter attack, set piece, PK, OG):
FG9qZBi.png

LOL DA FUQ?

So we are among the top three in terms of percentage of goals scored on the counter, but that's still only 11% of our goals (five, to be exact—only Woolwich has as many counter attack goals). We're actually more deadly from set pieces, with eight goals total, but the percentage should suggest something is up. Man U have only about half as many goals as we do, but they have over twice as many (19) set piece goals. OTOH, our piddling eight is right in line with our peers: Chelsea, Woolwich, and Liverpool are all within a goal of our total, and they're among the bottom in terms of percentage of goals from set pieces.

We're in the top eight in terms of percentage of goals from open play, but so our our peers (except Man U, who are, again, outrageous on set pieces).

Who knows what is considered a "counter attack goal", since five for us seems small, but presumably it's measured equally for all the teams, so though our percentage may be low, the fact that we're among the league leaders should remain the case. Now I wonder how many counter attacks have resulted in a shot on target, but not in a goal.

This chart also goes towards explaining Reading's puzzling presence at the top of the goals/shots charts from last night. Their goals come from set pieces, and they probably don't shoot much, otherwise.
 
OK, last bit of data. I was planning on taking all the available result data from all the fixtures of the top five teams. Good thing I started with Spurs, because I'm not sure how valuable the data that emerges is. From BBC, I took the result, number of goals scored by Spurs, possession percentage, number of shots, and number of shots on goal. I then also added five-match rolling averages, which show something like "form over the previous five matches". The straight blue lines are the season long averages, which means that you can use the 5g lines to sort of see if we're in a good spell or bad spell:
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Clear. as. mud. We're going through a bit of a goal drought lately (more or less since having to deal with Harry, and though during that time we've been shooting more than average, it's also tailing off. Paradoxically, our worst spell of shooting (Wigan through Everton away) was among our better patches as far as goal scoring is concerned. But I think 1.7 goals per game is a tidy sum. Recall only two clubs (iirc) have pushed that all the way up to 2.

So what if I recalculate these totals to consider time of possession?
ZZ49cmM.jpg

The shapes of the graphs don't change much (because our possession doesn't change much from game to game, as I'll show next), but we do see what outliers like Man U away (25% possession) do to our goal efficiency in terms of possession. Similarly, it reaffirms what a mess we were against City and the Wanderers: we couldn't get shots off to save our lives, though we still managed goals! But again, the rolling averages are in line with the averages in the previous chart: we went through a period where we were very inefficient with taking shots while in possession, but during that same time we still managed to have goals get scored, suggesting, maybe, that the recent flurry of shots being taken is a consequence of not scoring.

Finally, let's look at possession:
ELa2eV5.jpg

Here, maybe, we see some of @spooky's beloved galvanisation. Our shot percentages have been all over the place, as have our goal percentages. Perhaps that's because of sample size (goals are rarer than possession, which is guaranteed in every match). But while shots and goals have been volatile as hell, our possession has slowly increased over the season, with only two below-average performances since Liverpool came to down. And perhaps that's why we seem wasteful in front of the goal: our possession has gotten better, but we've seemed even less likely to find ways to break down a defense and score. Don't forget that we managed three goals off 25% possession at OT, but our 70% possession at the Hawthorns only landed us one sorry goal.

I suspect AVB is working making us a side that values a high possession rate, trying to make use of possession to make triangles, etc., that break up defenses. Of course, to do so we need that Modrić player (perhaps moreso than a striker?), which means that for our higher possession to yield results, we need more from permacrocked Dembélé and perhaps Holtby.
 
What I get from that marvellous mass of facts is a clear indication of how AVB is working. Plainly the team are under instruction to shoot on sight, and that is also what is losing us possession.

A shoot on sight policy will cause exactly the stats shown, and be very negative for striker goals, because the supplier (Bale?) will be shooting at goal instead of putting it on a plate for the striker. I cannot remember Dempsey making a pass to another player that sets them up, but I can remember loads of Dempsey hopeful hoofs with never a chance of scoring...

Of course I am sure the policy is far more sophisticated than that...
 
RSpurs said:
What I get from that marvellous mass of facts is a clear indication of how AVB is working. Plainly the team are under instruction to shoot on sight, and that is also what is losing us possession.

A shoot on sight policy will cause exactly the stats shown, and be very negative for striker goals, because the supplier (Bale?) will be shooting at goal instead of putting it on a plate for the striker. I cannot remember Dempsey making a pass to another player that sets them up, but I can remember loads of Dempsey hopeful hoofs with never a chance of scoring...

Of course I am sure the policy is far more sophisticated than that...
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HI RS, I can definitely remember one pass from Dempsey that was brilliant and set up a goal, I can't remember which game though.

Dempsey has the joint most assists with Lennon and Bale
And from memory at least two of those were from nice little passes where he set up the goalscorer.
 
MyFootbalFacts said:
Yes, Spurs are creating a lot of goalscoring opportunities - the most for any club in the Premier League this season (322: 157 off target, 165 on target) but our problem has been converting those chances into goals.

We've scored 44 times from those 322 chances, giving us a conversion rate of just 13.7%, which is one of the lowest in the Premier League...

Premier League Results, League Table, Goal Statistics & Opportunities for Season 2012-13
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Cheers for info MFF
 
Rosie47 said:
MyFootbalFacts MyFootbalFacts by any chance are you able to provide a precise definition of what constitutes a "chance" (if you'll pardon the pun)?
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This. If we're counting every shot as a "chance" then it's no surprise we are well up there. We have taken more speculative shots this season than I have ever seen us take, because everyone seems to think they have what it takes from 30 yards.
 
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