Points, Points, Points (Looking For A Good Time)

[Sibs]

As you know, i love spending my free time working out statistics and win rates. So I've been through the last 10 Premiership seasons and looked at the numbers of points for 1st - 5th placed finishes. I've then worked out the average point finish for each season and the highest ever point finishes for each position.

Despite me previously thinking that it would need 72 points to finish 4th, this may a little high. No team has finished 4th with more than 68 points.

Despite Manchester City and Manchester United having a small gap at the top of the table, both have started showing weakness. We have also weakened since our run of wins, and with Liverpool, Woolwich and Chelsea all being somewhat inconsistent, a lot of team will be taking points off of each other, sometimes seemingly randomly. It could be the results within this top group of 6 teams that will decide the final places

Last 10 Seasons
1 - 80 - 86 - 90 - 87 - 89 - 91 - 95 - 90 - 83 - 87 - 88
2 - 71 - 85 - 86 - 85 - 83 - 83 - 83 - 79 - 78 - 80 - 81
3 - 71 - 75 - 83 - 83 - 68 - 82 - 77 - 75 - 69 - 77 - 76
4 - 68 - 70 - 72 - 76 - 68 - 67 - 61 - 60 - 67 - 71 - 68
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5 - 62 - 67 - 63 - 65 - 60 - 65 - 58 - 56 - 64 - 66 - 63
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Average Points - Rounded Up


In any of the last 10 Seasons
87 points has been enough to win the league
84 points would be enough for 2nd
77 points would be enough for 3rd
68 points would be enough for 4th

68 would have been enough to finish 4th in any Premier League season since it has been 20 teams

For those of you that have been keeping up to date with the Don't Panic Thread our current win/points rate has us finishing with between 76-82 points. This would see us finish in 3rd or 4th in any of the last 10 Premiership seasons.

Basically, talk of the title is a little off based on these stats. It would take a low finish - like that of last years, for this to happen based on our results so far. However, having one dominant team in the league is usually a good thing, as on seasons where there is a high score a good gap between 1st and 2nd, the points needed to finish 4th are particularly low.

 

[Flav]

Great post sibs. When we get on newsnow this shit is going to kill it. That said, we will finish 7th on 58 points

 

[Sibs]

As basskadet pointed out in another thread, it is entirely feasible that we could go in to February with 50 points (not including any point we may get at Man City).

IF this happens, and going on past seasons, we would need 18 points from 14 games - or 6 wins out of 14, to reach 68 points needed to qualify fourth.

I think it may take 72 points this season to finish fourth, which would be a record high. This would mean another win - basically we would need to win half our games between February and end of May. A 50% win rate when we are currently winning at a rate of 68-72% of our games.

 

[YidoBuckler]

So with 38 points, say 10 more wins to get to 68 obviously excluding draws.

We have 11 home games left of which only one is against the current top 6. Anything we pick up away from home can be considered a bonus as long as we keep winning at home...

 

[paddyspurs]

So with 38 points, say 10 more wins to get to 68 obviously excluding draws.

We have 11 home games left of which only one is against the current top 6. Anything we pick up away from home can be considered a bonus as long as we keep winning at home...

Using 72 points as the example... seeing as Sibs said it would be a record high and I reckon this season will be the most competitive - never really heard top 6 mentioned before this season. We've got 39 points so if we win all of our 11 remaining home games thats 33 points... 39 + 33 = 72. Or to look at it another way, as long as we win 11 out of 20 remaining games we get to 72 points... :modricwtf: :rafaaaa:

 

[DCspurs]

Great Post Sibs...I'm a numbers guy and I love seeing stuff like that.

With that, I decided to rank our games in terms of difficulty, with the easiest one first and hardest one last (table below). I also broke it into four tiers of difficulty. I put this together sorta quickly so I'm more than open to some disagreement on it. Without assigning specific results to specific games, I figure we get 40 points, putting us at 79 on the season...probably good enough for 3rd according to Sibs' calculations. Of the 4 tiers I made, I definitely think I might have been a little bit harsh in Tiers 3 and 4...but it wouldn't shock me if we slip up a little further in Tier 2.

Tier 1 - 15 Points (5-0-0)
v. Blackburn
v. Wolves
v. WBA
v. Norwich
v. Wigan
-----------------------------
Tier 2 - 17 Points (5-2-1)
@ Bolton
v. Swansea
@ QPR
v. Fulham
v. Newcastle
v. Everton
@ Villa
v. Stoke
-----------------------------
Tier 3 - 4 Points (1-1-1)
@ Sunderland
@ Everton
v. ManU
-----------------------------
Tier 4 - 4 Points (1-1-2)
@ Chelsea
@ Woolwich
@ Liverpool
@ ManC

 

[thedutchman]

I've sat down and looked at this in great detail and basically come to the conclusion that we will probably, on balance, win 20 of our remaining 20 games, drawing none and losing none. I think this is pretty fair and sees us end the season on 99 points, a Premier League record, failing to break the "magical" century by just a single point, for which we can all blame Chris Foy (Or Sir Chris Hoy if you'd prefer) to distract us from the tedium of Euro 2012 (well the England part) waiting for our Treble winning 2012/13 season to begin. (I mean a "proper" treble as well, not the pony Liverpool one).

 

[paddy spur]

I've sat down and looked at this in great detail and basically come to the conclusion that we will probably, on balance, win 20 of our remaining 20 games, drawing none and losing none. I think this is pretty fair and sees us end the season on 99 points, a Premier League record, failing to break the "magical" century by just a single point, for which we can all blame Chris Foy (Or Sir Chris Hoy if you'd prefer) to distract us from the tedium of Euro 2012 (well the England part) waiting for our Treble winning 2012/13 season to begin. (I mean a "proper" treble as well, not the pony Liverpool one).

99 points and the league is won

apolgies jay-z