The Manchester City Dementors and Poch’s Future

We should listen closely to the manager. He has said twice that if Spurs win the Champions League title, he may very well ride off into the sunset. He has said that even if they don’t win this is a time to strengthen the squad after a two year span where the new stadium was the club’s priority. And that is pretty much a condition for him to decide to stay.

It is entirely possible that Saturday will be the final game of our most successful coach in the last 50 years. And if you are looking for a reason, look no further than 200 miles north to Manchester. Poch has defined his true goals as succinctly as they could be defined in the past– two trophies that matter. By hook, crook, fate, luck and sheer effort, his team stands on the verge of winning one of them. The chances that he can manage them to a similar position in the next five years are remote. Manchester City have never been to a Champions League final. Woolwich haven’t been there for more than a decade. Manchester United haven’t sniffed one since Sir Alex Ferguson left. Chelsea– somewhat miraculously– got there 7 years ago but seem incapable of a return any time soon. Only Liverpool of the Top Six have been able to book a return engagement so quickly. Spurs could very well have a better side over the next few years– as we were the previous two years compared to this– and never get past the quarter-finals. Celebrate this opportunity– it probably will never come again under this regime.

The dream of a league title seems even more remote. And here the villains of the story are obvious. One particular ownership group– an oil-rich nation– has grabbed hold of this league through a brilliant hire of a coach (the most expensively paid in the game, of course), some very smart personnel upgrades (Sterling and DeBruyne were rejected by their prior English clubs) and the all-consuming power of their petrodollar largesse. They have, over the past 8 seasons, won the league, finished second, won the league again, finished second again, finished third twice , and won the league twice consecutively with the two highest point totals in its quarter-century history. Their second team would probably finish in the Top Four and qualify for the Champions League. And even as their core of veterans begins to depart– Kompany first, sure to be followed by Aguero and David Silva before long–the replacements queue up to continue the dominance. They suck the life out of all the others. They kill the hope. They are the Dementors of this particular story.

Leicester 2015-16 was probably our best chance, but Spurs were still too inexperienced and lacked the nous to win enough close games to prevent the miracle the rest of the country was rooting so hard for. What chance do we really have now at topping City? And is it all that different from the prospects of the other 5? For now we stand above Manchester United and Woolwich in the pecking order, and the transfer ban and ownership chaos may place us just above Chelsea as well– but Liverpool still have a masterful coach and a talented XI that will not be easy to dislodge as City’s closest competitor. Does Poch want to play a lottery where, at best, his side have a 1 in 5 chance of being the team that in the odd year could smite the dragon? Constantly searching for the underbelly with a perfect arrow shot that may or may not be capable with his players?

Or might he at some point say “give me Juve.. or give me Madrid.. because there I know I will have superior resources to nearly all of my principal opposition. There I will be guaranteed a chance for European glory– every season. There I can win a league, and then win it again.” 

This is not a knock on Levy, on London, on the Premier League, on Spurs. It is a terrific story how we have risen above previous levels to become a consistent Top Four finisher and, this season, a potential Champions League winner. Poch has given us so much, but he has received a hell of a lot in return. I don’t think he is Alex Ferguson or Arsene Wenger, though, here for 20 years. Maybe no one will be anymore. I would like to think he and Daniel can dream up a way to improve the squad and take City on. But let’s be honest. it may be a fool’s errand. He might know– deep down– that it probably won’t get any better than Saturday night in Madrid. And if that’s it– particularly if it ends with the biggest trophy of them all– I will still thank him for everything he has done. The true magician always leaves them wanting more– but the disappearing act might come quicker than we think.