Europa League as our best chance of Champions League place next season

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I totally agree, and I stay with my opinion.

Also, there's another aspect: odds are set also with the aim making a bet attractive. If there is such a difference between the two is also because much more people think that the Top 4 is an easier target
Odds are not just "set." They change to reflect where the money is flowing, which is diversified over a crowd of bettors. It is impossible for the individual bettor to beat the system of "the wisdom of the crowds" which proves accurate over a large sample of bets. To analogize to a casino, the house never, ever, loses. You betting Europa league is therefore the wrong bet as the betting odds are not even close. You might get lucky and win a single bet, which is always a bit of a thrill, but you would be a fool to place your family's savings on a single bet that is less probable than the other, and then just rely on luck.
 
Would Absolutley love us to win the europa league but cant see us getting through tommorow nights game as i cant see us not conceding or scoring enough.
Rather win EL than CC if i had a choice especially with champions league as a prize.
 
Poch still hasnt got the squad he wants.

This is purely speculation. If he wasn't happy he could have easily put up a fight in January. He didn't, and we didn't get anyone that could immediately help us.

TFC pod made a good point, that everything after this weekend is practically like a new season for us. We won't have Wembley weighing on our heads and we'll be able to get on with our season. With no Europa we can push with our A squad and I think that might be the best option. Manchester United are about to have an extremely rough April. They will absolutely drop no less than 6 points. Given how tight the race for 4th is right now, I think that we could easily finish above them. My fear is Liverpool.
 
I very much think we should put all our eggs in one basket this week, and go for the Wembley game.

If our reserves can beat Fiorentina then great, we challenge on two fronts, otherwise we may have a cup and we can still go for top 4 which we are more likely to get than winning the EL.

By spreading our eggs over two baskets this week, we're going end up with a load of splattered yolks, as we drop both baskets, and we're left with just chasing top 4, but without the boost of that all important trophy, that could transform our decade.

It's messages like this that make me happy to be binned.
 
When it comes to probabilities, you should always follow the money. Given that the betting odds are not even close, your gut feeling is obviously not correct about the difficulty of advancing to win Europa starting from the round of 32.
As Louisana states/implies, it doesn't really matter, except to the individual concerned, what someone's gut feelings are.
The odds are so far far apart, it's quite clear we are definitely more likely to finish top 4 than win EL.

Of course upsets can happen, but when we're talking what's more likely, there's only one candidate here, which is us finishing top 4 being the more likely option of the two, it's not even close.

BTW, by chasing what is an unlikely event (us winning the EL), Poch IMO, is going to mess up our chances of winning the Lge Cup. That's particularly annoying because out of finishing top 4, winning EL, winning Lge Cup, the latter at a typical price of 9/4, is the most likely of the three options for glory we have this season.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/winner.

Had we left most/all of our first team at home, I think the odds would have been even shorter.

We'll see how it all goes, but for me Poch has got it wrong.
 
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I feel Poch has got it right. He knows his players and I have faith in his ability to choose the right 11. I feel it will be simular as against WH with a couple of stronger players on the bench to come on. The same result would see us through. We can win this and then take on the Chaves and there will be changes again. isnt this what modern football is about?
 
I love Thfc and am locked in TTID, however wishing/hoping does not conceal present reality.
1. Will be lucky to get past Fiorentina.
2. If above achieved, even with best starting I doubt we are at level to win the final.
3. If we can't achieve 4th or above hand on heart this just declares we are still short of being CL quality (ie being able to progress out of group stage).

But with Poch continuing to develop squad plus a couple of key signings, no doubt I would love to have us in CL.
At the moment, we just need to concentrate on this weeks games.
 
1. Will be lucky to get past Fiorentina.

How do you work that one out?

Fiorentina are better away than at home and they were lucky to even get a draw. We completely wrecked them in the first 30 mins or so. And this is with Paulinho and Soldado.

I think if we try we can put this to bed quickly and fairly easily. The key is scoring first, as this means they have to attack us and open up.

If they score first I can see us panicking, them sitting deep and defending. Worst nightmare.
 
How do you work that one out?

Fiorentina are better away than at home and they were lucky to even get a draw. We completely wrecked them in the first 30 mins or so. And this is with Paulinho and Soldado.

I think if we try we can put this to bed quickly and fairly easily. The key is scoring first, as this means they have to attack us and open up.

If they score first I can see us panicking, them sitting deep and defending. Worst nightmare.
I feel the same. I think with our best team out for Europa we'll smash them (I jinxed it, I know) by a ton of goals. This would help the morale and no matter what their fitness is they'll be pumped up for a final. All our boys aren't like those rich footballers who think lowly of this cup, we'll be up for it more than Chelsea.
 
Financially, the COC is worthless. Sure, you'll have something to decorate the trophy cabinet (and ammo to mock Chelsea), but it is highly irrelevant in the grander scheme of things.

One of the reasons why the Europa League was so reviled because it is a 'pointless' tournament of CL rejects played on Thursdays ('Spursdays'). However, the winner now can automatically qualify for next season's CL. That's a big, fat and juicy carrot dangling in front of us, and a great source of motivation.

Spurs aren't getting top 4, and making it worse for us this season is the surprise package that is Southampton. The worst Southampton can go is 5th, in my honest opinion. If Southampton gets top 4, two of the scummy red teams don't get CL football next season. And if we win the EL, there will be five English teams in next seasons CL.

Cuadrado was one of Fiorentina's best players, he's gone now, we can beat them even in Italy.
 
Financially, the COC is worthless. Sure, you'll have something to decorate the trophy cabinet (and ammo to mock Chelsea), but it is highly irrelevant in the grander scheme of things.
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The Lge Cup is pretty much 'financially worthless' it's true. But I'd far rather win that on Sunday than beat Fiorentina today. It's not even a close call for me. Beating Chelsea there is far from irrelevant in the grander scheme of things to me. To me, in the grander scheme of things, what counts is trophies. We haven't got one this decade. Sunday might be our best chance during this decade. If Poch blows it by playing a full strength team tonight, he's got it all wrong. Glory is to be found at Wembley on Sunday, a faint echo of it is available in Florence tonight.

EDIT A simple way to see how much more important Sunday's game is to Spurs fans compared to tonight is to compare the demand for tickets. The ticket prices for the Chelsea game are two to three times higher than they were for the Fiorentina home leg.

Nevertheless it was easy to get a ticket in the home end for that game. Whereas not only we have sold out for the Wembley game, people are willing to pay on the 'black market' ten times or more the price for that game compared to the Fiorentina match.

Even if the home leg v Fiorentina was tonight rather than last Thursday, the situation would be much the same. Tickets in the home end tonight fairly easily available. Moreover, if the price had been set at Wembley levels, not only would there have been a huge outcry, but it's unlikely we'd have sold out. Whereas for Sunday, people are not only willing pay high prices, they are willing to pay way more than those prices to get a ticket for that game.

The prestige and glory of us playing Chelsea at Wembley puts a game in Florence completely in the shade (Whatever the respective temperatures and beauty of London and Viola Land).

It's not so much a Tale of Two Cities, as a tale of Two Tribes - Us v Chelsea in a major final. It's huge, simple as.

I wonder if Poch fully grasps the difference between the two games?
 
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My big worry about this desire to get in the CL is how much we seem to struggle in EL.
IMHO we need to demonstrate we're top of the bunch in that competition before we set our sights on the harder version.
 
My big worry about this desire to get in the CL is how much we seem to struggle in EL.
IMHO we need to demonstrate we're top of the bunch in that competition before we set our sights on the harder version.

Our struggle is relative IMO. We've been in the knock out rounds consistently and under AVB we went to penalties in the QF's. Obviously we may think we should push for semi finals and the silverware but it isn't that small of a competition. Especially after the CL dropouts enter... + we have already done OK in the CL once
 
I wonder if the odds would come out different if we took el seriously. We've never taken it seriously or made it a priority (except for avb's fascination with the group stage last year). If we dropped everything and played all out for this, I think the odds would drastically change. For the record, I'm not saying we should or shouldn't.
 
I wonder if the odds would come out different if we took el seriously. We've never taken it seriously or made it a priority (except for avb's fascination with the group stage last year). If we dropped everything and played all out for this, I think the odds would drastically change. For the record, I'm not saying we should or shouldn't.
It's a fair point, if we went all out for the EL, then I would expect the odds to drop. For example, had we played a full strength team in the first leg, chances are we would have won and now be favourites for this tie, and the odds would be shorter accordingly.

But the way the EL is set up, it hits English clubs badly, especially those who don't 'drop in' from the CL.

The Thursday Sunday slog is a killer with the punishing Prem schedule and the domestic Cups on top, It hurts so much, and the rewards are much smaller than the Prem.

I think you take each season as it comes, but for me Poch is about to get it all wrong today, if he goes strong tonight, which almost certainly wil weaken us for Wembley.

IF we put together a stronger squad next season and we're in the EL, maybe we can give it a better shot, but who knows what shape we'll be in come August/September. Not me, for sure.
 
My team for tonight (with the final in mind):
Vorm
Walker Dier Fazio Rose
Bentalab Stambouli
Townsend Lamela Chadli
Soldado

Lloris
Vertonghen
Davies
Mason
Dembele
Eriksen
Kane

P.S. Going to be experiencing my first ever match watching from a yank bar (blatant) the Irish Channel, so excited about that
 
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