Europa League as our best chance of Champions League place next season

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williams316 said:
why is it us that never really gets better in the premier league to get in the top 4 we get the chance with man united being shit and still somehow fuck it up
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The answers are quite easy really. Three of the 'Big 5' are bigger clubs than us, and have been for at least the last twenty years, and probably much longer than that. The other two have got owners who pump untold millions into their clubs, whereas our owners have no interest in doing likewise.

Until/unless we get owners as good for us as City and Chelsea have had for their clubs it's unlikely we can compete with the Big 5 on a consistent basis for those 4 magic places and the significant silverware that gets dished out annually.

Of course the new stadium might do the trick, but I'm not counting on it.
 
Something they threw out there on the Spurs Show that does make sense: if fielding a weak side at Fiorentina does get us bounced from Europa, not only does it allow our strongest team to play on Sunday, it also leaves us competing with a fresh squad once a week for top 4 against teams that are still in multiple competitions, Woolwich and Liverpool still being in THREE competitions each. Given our remaining league fixtures, it wouldn't be a bad spot to be in.
 
Louisiana Hotspur said:
Something they threw out there on the Spurs Show that does make sense: if fielding a weak side at Fiorentina does get us bounced from Europa, not only does it allow our strongest team to play on Sunday, it also leaves us competing with a fresh squad once a week for top 4 against teams that are still in multiple competitions, Woolwich and Liverpool still being in THREE competitions each. Given our remaining league fixtures, it wouldn't be a bad spot to be in.
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That's pretty much my view as well.
 
If we lose Tmw do we then go into the champions League?

I'd love us to win it but that CL drop down rule ruins it for me ..
 
For me, this is very much a season of transition and building foundations for the future. Any actual trophy or league success is a massive bonus. I also admire Poch's courage in going for it in both cup games. Audere Est Facere. Not: ooh I'm not sure if we should really try and win 2 games in 4 days. Good teams compete on all fronts. We need to build that mental strength and stamina.
 
No chance of doing either. Transitional season, Poch still hasnt got the squad he wants. I'd be happy not getting Europe at all and having a major crack at top 4 next year without the bother of EL.
 
In every game of the europa so far, we have looked awful. Even against some half cut Cypriot barmen. There could be lots of reasons for this, but the funny thing as a club we are obsessing about getting into a competition we have no chance of winning. It would be good if we could at least hold our own in the el first.

We are not in good form, but somehow we are still in the race for 4th. I would of been over the moon if someone had said this 3 months ago.

I think our europa journey will come to an end tomorrow, and to be honest, it deserves to be. We have been poor in it.

If we can keep within 3 or 4 points of those northern idiots we might sneak 4th but it's an outside chance.

Our season is all about sunday, not about qualifying for a competition we have zero chance of winning.
 
Greaves357_bestever said:
The answers are quite easy really. Three of the 'Big 5' are bigger clubs than us, and have been for at least the last twenty years, and probably much longer than that. The other two have got owners who pump untold millions into their clubs, whereas our owners have no interest in doing likewise.

Until/unless we get owners as good for us as City and Chelsea have had for their clubs it's unlikely we can compete with the Big 5 on a consistent basis for those 4 magic places and the significant silverware that gets dished out annually.

Of course the new stadium might do the trick, but I'm not counting on it.
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And the money they pump in is not their cash! That's the thing that gets me so pissed off. FA will take anyone's money!
 
As much as I am loving being int the Cup final and where we are in EL and in the League, I am not necessarily expecting any trophy this season, a season that has already been fantastic and gave me a sense of strenght about our future like no other did

Having said that, fortunately we have difficult choices to make and there's no clear cut on what's the best solution.

Personally I think we should take a risk and play a strong line up in Florence as well as obviously try to win the Cup Final (which rationally is quite unlikely to happen, but I don't care).
The reasons for this are:

- we have low chanches to win the Cup Final anyway

- it's the way we are. Audere Est Facere
- it's better to fail aiming high than to succeed aiming low to fail anyway
- we have even lower chances to get into the top 4 throught the league
- going through in the Europa League will boost the payers morale for the final. Being eliminated will be a morale blow for the players who will have played in Florence and will put even more pressure on anybody who haven't and will play in Wembley

As for whether to give priority to the Premiership or the EL, rationally I think we have low chances to win the EL, but even lower to get into the top 4, because :
- on the EL we are better than anyone else, apart from victimpool an maybe Napoli (if we play them over two legs we may win or lose, anything can happen)
- in the Premiership woolwich always have a strong finish and both woolwich and victimpool have more depth. Southampton are inferior to us but have better fixtures

However, it's not like this week we have to give up fighting in the Premiership: we will try to win every game anyway, and see what happens

COYS
 
Deckard said:
As for whether to give priority to the Premiership or the EL, rationally I think we have low chances to win the EL, but even lower to get into the top 4
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You do realize we still have to get through 8 more games of knockout competition against increasingly quality opposition, sandwiched between league games, to win Europa. You think that's more likely than playing our best eleven just once a week and closing a gap of 3 points in the league?
 
Deckard said:
As much as I am loving being int the Cup final and where we are in EL and in the League, I am not necessarily expecting any trophy this season, a season that has already been fantastic and gave me a sense of strenght about our future like no other did

Having said that, fortunately we have difficult choices to make and there's no clear cut on what's the best solution.

Personally I think we should take a risk and play a strong line up in Florence as well as obviously try to win the Cup Final (which rationally is quite unlikely to happen, but I don't care).
The reasons for this are:

- we have low chanches to win the Cup Final anyway

- it's the way we are. Audere Est Facere
- it's better to fail aiming high than to succeed aiming low to fail anyway
- we have even lower chances to get into the top 4 throught the league
- going through in the Europa League will boost the payers morale for the final. Being eliminated will be a morale blow for the players who will have played in Florence and will put even more pressure on anybody who haven't and will play in Wembley

As for whether to give priority to the Premiership or the EL, rationally I think we have low chances to win the EL, but even lower to get into the top 4, because :
- on the EL we are better than anyone else, apart from victimpool an maybe Napoli (if we play them over two legs we may win or lose, anything can happen)
- in the Premiership woolwich always have a strong finish and both woolwich and victimpool have more depth. Southampton are inferior to us but have better fixtures

However, it's not like this week we have to give up fighting in the Premiership: we will try to win every game anyway, and see what happens

COYS
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Agree with the sentiment, I think we should be putting out a strong team in both games!
But the whole point of this thread was to try and start to dispel the myth that top 4 is harder than Europa League. See the odds that greavesie has posted above for evidence.
 
Louisiana Hotspur said:
You do realize we still have to get through 8 more games of knockout competition against increasingly quality opposition, sandwiched between league games, to win Europa. You think that's more likely than playing our best eleven just once a week and closing a gap of 3 points in the league?
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Yes, i do. That's why I said we don't have many chances of winning the EL. I just think we have even less chances of closing the gap with the top 4 teams, despite the fact we have a blody good first 11

Don't get me wrong: I think we are good enough to either win the EL or getting in the top 4, but I think the EL is more in our hands that in other teams'. To get in the top 4 we need 3 of the following 4 teams to do worse than us: woolwich, scousers, Southampton, manure

Also, let's make it clear: this is my feeling, but I can be totally wrong. As I said it's a very very difficult choice, and there's no clear solution as what to prioritise
 
OffTheBench said:
Agree with the sentiment, I think we should be putting out a strong team in both games!
But the whole point of this thread was to try and start to dispel the myth that top 4 is harder than Europa League. See the odds that greavesie has posted above for evidence.
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I am a bit surprised about those odds, and as I just said in my last post, I don't think a top 4 finish is impossible. I just think that the EL is "only just" a little bit more in our hands in terms of strenght and squad depth. It's true that it's also more risky, because it only takes a red card or the wrong bounce of the ball to get oy, that's true as well
 
When it comes to probabilities, you should always follow the money. Given that the betting odds are not even close, your gut feeling is obviously not correct about the difficulty of advancing to win Europa starting from the round of 32.
 
Louisiana Hotspur said:
When it comes to probabilities, you should always follow the money. Given that the betting odds are not even close, your gut feeling is obviously not correct about the difficulty of advancing to win Europa starting from the round of 32.
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Probabilities are very important, I agree, but they don' give is certainty: they just help us to deal with it.
Gut feeling is irrational, but not awlays wrong, and sometimes wins/loses games on its own. Maybe more than probability, maybe less.

The great thing is that at this point of the season we have something to discuss about, rather than languishing in mid table with no cup to play in!
 
Deckard said:
Probabilities are very important, I agree, but they don' give is certainty: they just help us to deal with it.
Gut feeling is irrational, but not awlays wrong, and sometimes wins/loses games on its own. Maybe more than probability, maybe less.

The great thing is that at this point of the season we have something to discuss about, rather than languishing in mid table with no cup to play in!
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This debate is usually resolved with a simple hypothetical question: Given the wide disparity in betting odds between the two, which would you bet your family's savings on if you had to choose one?
 
Louisiana Hotspur said:
This debate is usually resolved with a simple hypothetical question: Given the wide disparity in betting odds between the two, which would you bet your family's savings on if you had to choose one?
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I totally agree, and I stay with my opinion.

Also, there's another aspect: odds are set also with the aim making a bet attractive. If there is such a difference between the two is also because much more people think that the Top 4 is an easier target
 
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