I expect to lose matches or points to lower teams, just not as often, and with far more effort to actually dominate them before conceding a bad result.
I'm trying to figure out if there's a way to test this… to see if Spurs are actually problematically "worse" against "lesser" teams, especially in comparison to the rest of the league.
So this isn't perfect, but I put together a pretend season to test this. The rules are:
1. If the home team is higher in the table than the away team, it "should" be a home win.
2. Under all other circumstances, the result "should" be a draw (there are no away wins).
Here are the results:
So if Spurs had picked up a draw on every away day, drawn against the four teams above them when at home, and beaten everyone else, they would have 57 points. Instead, we have 62 points, meaning that whatever home draws or home losses we've picked up against lesser teams are offset by our ability to pick up away wins.
Top clubs sit in the negative because they pick up away wins. Man U's 12 away wins are a big part of why they're at -16.
Bottom clubs sit in the negative because of their ability to pick up home wins where one would "expect" a home draw (or by getting draws—or even wins!—away). QPR, for example, is supposed to have drawn every home match and lost every away match.
And middle clubs have volatility because the middle of the table is volatile.
But what's interesting here is that, given this kind of brutal/simplistic rule, the table doesn't actually change all that much. Only five clubs are in the "wrong" place, and even so the difference in places is pretty minimal (if not the result of ties).
So my preliminary conclusion is that we're not any more wasteful against lesser competition than our nearby competition… in fact, one could say that the Wanderers are more wasteful. They've lost three away matches to "lesser" competition (Chelsea, us, Norwich) and have picked up far too many home draws and home losses to "lesser" competition to offset their (many) away wins. But even so, they're not so wasteful that they don't belong in third…