The Tottenham two percent

The current summer transfer window, for the most part, has shown a continued trend of the Daniel Levy/ENIC tenure: if you bought something, sell it for more than you paid. Such business tactics will perpetually earn Tottenham the moniker of being a “selling club”. But, looking past any negative connotations it may engender, we are becoming one of the most successful in its application.

Recently on the podcast, the term “Moneyball” was used to describe the club’s ethos. For the unfamiliar, Moneyball is a 2003 book by Michael Lewis, and a 2011 film starring Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill. Each analyzes the 2002 season of the Oakland Athletics, a team in Major League Baseball known for its, uh, frugal spending habits.

That year, the Athletics had the league’s third-lowest wages, yet managed to make the playoffs through its revolutionary use of analytical, evidence-based sabermetrics, breaking away from the normalcy of relying on the collective and subjective wisdom of its past players, scouts, and executives. To put this achievement in context, imagine that last year Burnley earned a Europa League spot, and just missed out on the top four.

[linequote]It would be foolish to think that Tottenham are ignoring statistics and technology when it comes to evaluating the squad[/linequote]

As much as advanced statistics and new technologies can help a club improve their on-field performance, I think a better comparison for Tottenham can be found in Jonah Keri’s book about the Tampa Bay Rays, “The Extra 2%.” In revitalizing their team, the Rays applied advanced statistics in a focused approach by attempting to outperform the big-spending clubs by a ratio of 52/48. By seeking modest advantages, and exploiting market inefficiencies, the Rays (read Crystal Palace) for three years outperformed their rivals the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees (read Liverpool and Chelsea).

Although the Rays are cagey about revealing the details to their approach, their mindset is that nothing is sacred, and if a better way of preparing or scouting can be found, it must be implemented. Examples include using certain players in a lineup to match up most effectively against the opposition, unorthodox training drills, and utilizing technology to analyze games for exploitable moments. More incredibly, their success came while being in the bottom-third of the wage table.

It would be foolish to think that Tottenham are ignoring statistics and technology when it comes to evaluating the squad. Even Hugo with his broken arm can provide useful data for the team to track his training progress. That being said, I’ve noticed several changes made within the last year which make me believe that Tottenham is the Premier League’s embodiment of the 2% principle.

First was the hiring of Paul Mitchell. We have all heard of the mysterious “black-box” and proprietary software he developed at Southampton, and brought with him to White Hart Lane. Media reports are scant on details, thankfully, but the permeating sense of amazement and optimism is evident. Given his history with Pochettino, it appears that the latter trusts in the former, and both are working together to find results on our pitch and other’s.

[fullquote]What the 2% philosophy shows is that such monetary restrictions shouldn’t prevent the club from daring to finish atop the table anyway[/fullquote]

Second was the signing of Stambouli. After joining from Montpelier in 2014 for a reported £4.7m fee, he made a total of 25 appearances and scored one goal. Personally, I found the first too much by half, and wasn’t sure if he ever made it within striking distance of the goal. Perhaps we have the burden of knowledge from watching him play, but his rumored sale to PSG for a £6.2m fee is remarkable. One year, barely plays, Tottenham profit.

Finally, there was the singing of Eric Dier. He’s young, trained at a respected academy, and most importantly, is English. Early goal-scoring theatrics aside, his progression and adaption into the league was relatively free from disaster, and he looks to be a versatile player moving forward. Given the woeful state of Spurs defense over the last year (*cough*+5 goal differential *cough*), he is a spot of encouragement. Oh yeah, he only reportedly cost £4m.

Including other indicators, these three to me represent that the club is looking to exploit market inefficiencies. It would be impossible to outspend every club, or to think that the front office has any intention of losing money on its investments. What the 2% philosophy shows is that such monetary restrictions shouldn’t prevent the club from daring to finish atop the table anyway.

[linequote]If Tottenham can keep finding innovative ways of detecting affordable, undervalued talent, perhaps the replication of the glory of 2010/2011 will not be a long wait[/linequote]

Let Manchester City spend more than the yearly wages of some clubs to obtain their quota of English players. Let Liverpool wallow in their talent leaving for “bigger” clubs, and try to figure out their new reputation in this era of football. If Tottenham can keep finding innovative ways of detecting affordable, undervalued talent, perhaps the replication of the glory of 2010/2011 will not be a long wait.

Ownership has taken stick over its guidance of the club, some of which is deserved. However, considering the moves made recently, the impending construction of a new stadium, and apparent backing of the manager, maybe Levy is earning a new nickname of “Two Percent.”

I’ll just leave this right here.