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Should we persevere with Paulinho?

9 min read
by Joshua Olsson
There was a time when Paulinho was highly sought after. the combative, box to box whirlwind was meant to be the Samba Lampard, but instead he has stuttered and failed to live up to the hype. Joshua Olsson debates whether we should give him another chance.

It seems that Mauricio Pochettino’s imagination can be captured by a moment of class. For Ryan Mason a stunning twenty-five yard curling shot against Nottingham Forest in late August ensured a start in the next match away to Woolwich.

For Paulinho, Tottenham’s out of form midfielder, an energetic burst from midfield to receive a pass from Nacer Chadli, followed by a pinpoint ball inside to Christian Eriksen, seems to have been enough to convince the Argentine that his largely peripheral Brazilian midfielder might be worthy of a return – of sorts – to the fold.

Until that match against Leicester on 21st March, Paulinho’s 2015 had continued the pattern of his entire Tottenham career. He was largely unable to get into the team and, when given the occasional chance in the starting line-up or on as a late sub, unable to make much of an impact. One might have thought that the £17m midfielder would at least have taken advantage of Nabil Bentaleb’s absence with Algeria at the Africa Cup of Nations to push for a starting position.

However, aside from a decent performance against Burnley in the FA Cup on 14th January, in which he got a goal and an assist, Paulinho made just four starts in the whole of January and delivered a series of unremarkable performances.

Following Bentaleb’s return from AFCON, Paulinho found himself returned to the outer margins of the squad and made just one start in the whole of February and March (against Fiorentina in the Europa League). In fact, between that start against Fiorentina and his substitute appearance against Leicester, Paulinho failed to make a single appearance in the course of six Spurs matches.

[linequote]Paulinho made just four starts in the whole of January and delivered a series of unremarkable performances[/linequote]

Following Paulinho’s contribution against Leicester, however, the Brazilian has enjoyed a slight renaissance. Against Burnley Paulinho started in the hole and, while that strategy was not particularly effective, Spurs’ turgid play against Villa in the next game seems to have convinced Pochettino that Paulinho offers a creative spark which Ryan Mason does not. Last weekend, a convincing 3-1 victory over an accommodating Newcastle with Paulinho operating in central midfield alongside a very impressive Bentaleb, gave Spurs their largest margin of victory since a 3-0 win at The Hawthorns at the end of January (perhaps not coincidentally, Paulinho started in that match too). The question which must been asked then, is whether the Tottenham team plays better when Paulinho is in the XI?

Perhaps an even more fundamental question is whether Paulinho still has a role to play in the team. This question has received fresh impetus by the fact that the rumour mill is now convinced that he will be one of the first to go in Tottenham’s summer clear-out.

The short answer to both questions is a qualified no.

Without wanting to add fuel to the fire, the reason why I believe that Paulinho can be dispensed with is neatly encapsulated by his much-discussed mishit shot against Burnley. Described by Stan Collymore, with typical subtlety, as possibly “the worst shot I’ve ever seen”, there is no doubt that it was a terrible effort.

Kane received the ball on the half way line, put his foot on the ball and then passed it into the path of Paulinho’s run to start the counterattack. Paulinho then proceeded to take the ball 30 yards to the edge of the penalty area. Ignoring the excellent run of Lamela, he then decided that that was quite enough effort for one afternoon, and casually poked the ball to the midpoint between the goal and the corner flag. It was a disappointing end to one of the few promising Tottenham moves in the match.

What Paulinho displayed in this move, or, more pertinently, what he failed to display, is the technique and skill which a Brazilian midfielder is supposed to possess. This, after all, is the recipient of the Bronze Ball at the 2013 Confederations Cup, who scored against Japan and Uruguay to help Brazil win the competition.

It is not entirely clear if any lessons can be drawn from Paulinho’s past. He had been forced to begin his professional career in Lithuania and Poland due to lack of opportunities in his homeland, before returning to the Brazilian fourth division with Pão de Açúcar.

[linequote] if Paulinho ever possessed incisiveness and the ability to make important contributions to defence and attack, then he failed to bring them along to North London[/linequote]

He made the move to the second division with Bragatino in 2009, before a meteoric rise to Corinthians the following year, where he won the Brasileirão, the Copa Liberatores and the Club World Cup during the next three seasons. Paulinho’s rise from the minor leagues of Eastern Europe to the apex of Brazilian football could as equally suggest a latent natural talent which took time to emerge as it could a lack of natural ability which was overcome through hard work and application.

What is clear, however, is that Paulinho’s first season at Spurs did not go to plan. He made 30 appearances in the Premier League in 2013-14, scoring six goals and making two assists. These are hardly damning statistics, and it could also be suggested that his momentum was halted by the firing of his fellow Portugese-speaking coach, André Villas-Boas. But any Tottenham fan will tell you that Paulinho was hardly convincing in that first season. It is hardly an objective measure but Paulinho has a WhoScored rating of only 6.89 in the League that season (his central midfield partner Moussa Dembele, by contrast, has a rating of 7.14 despite only one goal and a single assist, perhaps suggesting a much better general contribution to the team).

By the time of the 2014 World Cup Paulinho’s form had plummeted to new lows. In the aftermath of Brazil’s 0-0 draw with Mexico the legendary Brazilian midfielder Zico wrote, in a column for The Guardian:

Paulinho once again had a game to forget. He is a problem now because he is a shadow of the player who last year proved so important in creative and defensive duties… Paulinho had a tough season at Tottenham and it’s blatantly clear that he lacks rhythm and confidence. He is not as incisive as he used to be.”

The implication of Zico’s statement is that a poor season at Tottenham in the 2013-14 season knocked Paulinho off his game. However, if Paulinho ever possessed incisiveness and the ability to make important contributions to defence and attack, then he failed to bring them along to North London.

I think it is worth giving Paulinho – and Zico, who probably knows a decent midfielder when he sees one – the benefit of the doubt. Paulinho’s domestic and continental success with Corinthians (including a strike rate of a goal in just over every 4 games), coupled with international triumphs with Brazil (notwithstanding the 2014 World Cup), suggests that there is a good player inside there somewhere.

However, whether Paulinho confirms that old stereotype about some players just not being able to adapt to the Premier League, or whether Tottenham have simply failed to get the best out of their Brazilian midfielder, there is little to suggest that Spurs should continue with this particular experiment. Paulinho’s value has been in decline for the past couple of years, and it would seem a sensible course of action to cash in on him while some value remains.

Part of this stems from a cursory glance at the statistics. Although Paulinho’s lack of match time this season makes it unfair to draw any firm conclusions from the limited sample of data available, it is clear that he lags behind Ryan Mason, Nabil Bentaleb and Christian Eriksen in his contribution to both attack and defence, while his overall play is also statistically weaker than that of Moussa Dembele.

[​IMG]

The counterargument, of course, is that Paulinho’s limited involvement in the Premier League this season – including his often late appearances as a substitute – make this data irrelevant. For the sake of argument, then, I have also included his 2013-14 data below. He played 2,381 minutes in the Premier League last season compared to 459 minutes so far this season, and thus I would suggest that it provides a much more telling statistical sample:

[​IMG]

Even last season then, Paulinho was arguably performing at a lower level than Tottenham’s midfield options this season. His defensive contribution (in terms of tackles and interceptions) is clearly greater than that of Christian Eriksen and Moussa Dembele, but then they have largely been played on the wing or in an advanced midfield position where one would expect their defensive contribution to be less significant. The natural corollary of this, of course, is that their attacking contribution is much greater, and both Eriksen and Dembele are responsible for significantly more key passes and successful dribbles this season than Paulinho was last season.

Ryan Mason and Nabil Bentableb provide the most natural comparison for the central midfield birth which Paulinho largely occupied last season. Here Paulinho definitely does come off slightly worse. While his attacking contribution is roughly comparable to that of Mason and Bentaleb in terms of key passes and successful dribbles, they both lead him in tackles and interceptions, suggesting that their overall contribution to team play was greater.

Of course it must be borne in mind that Paulinho did bag 6 goals and 2 assists last season, putting him comfortably ahead of Ryan Mason (1 goal, 3 assists), Bentaleb (0 goals, 2 assists) and Dembele’s (1 goal, 1 assist) figures for this season. However, as fans who have watched Nacer Chadli’s continued involvement in the starting line-up with increasing bafflement will tell you, goals and assists are not a very good indication of overall play.

Perhaps the most puzzling statistic is Paulinho’s exceptionally low pass rate. His figure for this season can perhaps be explained by his often brief cameos in the team, but even for last season it is still lower than all of the other midfielders aside from Dembele.

This is damning for both players, and, here at least, Dembele should receive as much criticism as Paulinho. If one of the key roles of the central midfielders in a short passing game is to collect the ball and distribute it to attack, then the fact that Bentaleb is making 16 passes a game more than Paulinho did last season, is testament to his much more important presence in the “engine room” of the team.

[linequote]The problem is that Paulinho not only fails to do the basics better than the alternatives in the Spurs squad[/linequote]

Here, then, we arrive at the conclusion of my analysis, and at the reason why I would have little problem seeing Paulinho depart in the summer. The problem is that Paulinho not only fails to do the basics better than the alternatives in the Spurs squad, but that, as the wildly mishit shot against Burnley shows, he is also unable to add that qualitative touch of class which elevates a player’s contribution beyond mere statistics.

Pochettino may continue with his Paulinho experiment in the next match against Southampton – and I wish both of them every success – but it will take a consistent demonstration of Brazilian magic, or a marked improvement to his overall defensive and attacking contribution, to convince many Spurs fans that he has a future at our club.

All views and opinions expressed in this article are the views and opinions of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of The Fighting Cock. We offer a platform for fans to commit their views to text and voice their thoughts. Football is a passionate game and as long as the views stay within the parameters of what is acceptable, we encourage people to write, get involved and share their thoughts on the mighty Tottenham Hotspur.

I am interested in all things Tottenham, with a focus on the team's tactics, systems and players. I am also interested in medieval Arabic medicine, but that's a whole other story...

2 Comments

  1. wooks
    27/04/2015 @ 12:35 pm

    “However, as fans who have watched Nacer Chadli’s continued involvement in the starting line-up with increasing bafflement will tell you, goals and assists are not a very good indication of overall play.”

    Thanks. I’d rather have the goals Chadli scored this season and Paulinho scored last season than have a non scoring Ryan Mason running around doing Scott Parker impersonations (including the not scoring bit).

  2. Daniel
    29/04/2015 @ 11:54 pm

    As Corinthians supporter, I can assure that yes, there is in “somewhere” inside him the amazing player we saw in 2010-2012. But of course it’s not the same playing for the Spurs, maybe he is not enough confident or any other personal matter. I would be happy to see him again with Corinthians shirt to maybe achieve again his best performances.

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