Operation Warsaw

It is often said that the Premier League is really three mini leagues in one: the Top Four, The Best of the Rest, and the Relegation Quarter. The gulf between the three is widening every year and with every new TV deal, as a result I believe it’s time to approach the progression of our club in a different way.

Champions League is a must; I won’t pretend it isn’t. As much to attract players as for the cold hard currency. This transfer window will no doubt be another where Spurs’ targets are swiped up by teams who can say ‘what they offer, but higher wages and Champions League.

But to achieve Champions League football I believe Spurs must realign their priorities. In short, we must prioritise the Europa League. And this is for two reasons.

[linequote]I believe that Spurs lifting the trophy in the Stadion Narodowy in Warsaw next May is our most likely way into the CL[/linequote]

The first is that the winner of the Europa League is now (finally) rewarded with a Champions League place. The fact that this hasn’t hitherto been the case is ridiculous, but has been discussed to death so I’ll save time here and just state that I believe that Spurs lifting the trophy in the Stadion Narodowy in Warsaw next May is our most likely way in.

The Europa League is long, I know; to reach the final a team will have played upwards of 15 matches, home and away. But of those, only a handful will be played against ‘elite’ sides. Again, the fact the Champions League clubs are rewarded for failing in the group stage by being granted free entry into the Europa League has also been endlessly slated, but even with their inclusion, the trophy still seems more probable than 4th place.

After all, for every Benfica or Napoli there is a Panthianakos and Viktoria Plzen, and the knockout ties are decided by the luck of the draw – it would be incredibly unlucky to draw four (of eight) of the Champions League rejects in each round on the way to the final.

To use last year’s campaign as an example: keeping the draw the same, but imagining we’d beaten Benfica, our run (after the group stage) would have been Dnipro > Benfica > AZ Alkmaar > Juventus > Seville (final). Of those, only Benfica and Juventus can claim to be truly ‘elite’.

So that’s four home and away matches against top sides then a final to lift the cup. How many comparably ‘elite’ sides must we get past to finish 4th? Assuming there are no implosions from teams above us, it will be the current Top Four, plus Man United. Five teams, home & away, and this while not slipping up against anyone farther down the table – a West Ham, say. Which seems more likely?

It’s high-risk. One bad performance will see us out. But with the exponential rise of the teams above and around us, on and off the pitch, it feels as though the same will be true of the Premier League.

I mean, already the Top Four (and United) have ‘strengthened’ by adding Diego Costa (£35m), Cesc Fabregas (£28m), Alexis Sanchez (£35m), Ander Herrera (£29m), Lallana (£25m), with doubtless more on the way – we have stalled in negotiations for a couple of Swansea players.

[linequote]Managers – whether targeting the title, making 4th or escaping relegation – reel out the cliché that ‘every game is a cup final’. They aren’t.[/linequote]

The second reason I’d like to see Spurs prioritising cups will be as familiar to many as the criticisms of the Europa League, so again I will not spend too long on it. In essence, it is what is patronisingly called the Romance of Cups. The desire to see my club lift a trophy, play in a final.

During the closing stages of a Premier League campaign, players and managers – whether targeting the title, making 4th or escaping relegation – reel out the cliché that ‘every game is a cup final’. They aren’t. In 2012, Arsene Wenger, defending his team’s slide from double-winners to serial just-doing-enough-ers, described finishing in the Top Four as ‘the first trophy’. It isn’t.

Now, this article is supposed to be at least a little tongue-in-cheek: I am not suggesting we throw the Premier League (and I’m sure Pochettino’s agent isn’t either). But I will close with this.

For a moment, forget both the money (Top Four) and glory (winning the cup): if we are to come close, but fall just short of our target, I would rather do this by watching us lose in a European Cup final, drunk on cheap lager in Poland, than slumped in a pub in Wood Green watching us finish 5th, again.