Don’t Panic!

By Sibs (SibsTHFC)

Played: 14 Won: 10 Drawn: 1 Lost: 3

Today was not a good day at the office. Poor start in the first half, followed by dominance, failing to put away a couple of clear chances and some highly suspect refereeing decisions, including two clear penalties and a goal ruled out for offside when it wasn’t.

It is a shame that the run had to come to an end at Stoke… Stoke of all places, but these things will happen. Despite Flav’s optimism, this wont be the last time we lose this season. However, there is still loads of positives to be had. For a start Redknapp made a ballsy substitution – something that he has often be criticised for. Rather than waiting until 60mins, he made changes at half time and they worked. Credit to him for that, and also it will certainly raise an eyebrow at those who don’t really rate his tactics – including myself.

We also still have a game in hand, and the fact that Man City play Chelsea tomorrow and Arsenal next weekend. With Liverpool and Newcastle seemingly falling away, Man City can do us a big favour and win their next two games, and also hopefully helping their goal difference along the way.

If we beat Chelsea in a few week then we could be 9 points ahead of them, if results go our way.

We would have a similar lead over Arsenal… and we would still have a game in hand. All of these sides have European games coming up. Arsenal will have massive Champions League games, Man City have to play Man Utd in the F.A. Cup – as well a game against Liverpool in the Semi-Final of the league cup. Sure they have a big squad, but with the African Nations affecting them and Chelsea, it is going to be a tough start to 2012 for these sides…. just around the time we get to the halfway stage and have the United, City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Newcastle games. We have a really tough patch, but they should all have their eyes elsewhere and be affected by African Nations.

We also have the best run-in of any of the competing sides.
Swansea, Sunderland, Norwich, Bolton, QPR, Blackburn, Villa and Fulham

So anyway… Sunday sucked, no doubt we should have come away with at very least a point after our second half onslaught, but it aint all bad.

To help clear our heads here is the results for the 4th place finish for the last 9 seasons.

I’ve averaged them all out and based on the numbers –

Realistically we can lose another 4-5 games. We can lose to City and Man Utd – shouldn’t matter

Draw another 7-8 games – I actually can’t see us drawing many this season at all.

And win another 10… yep… we are almost halfway there…

Dismissing a couple of very low points totals, the target should be 70 points to secure fourth – though in fact for most of these seasons 68 would actually be enough (fifth is usually a few points behind)

4th Place Finish in Premier League from Last 9 seasons

W – D – L – Pts
19 11 08 – 68
21 07 10 – 70
20 12 06 – 72
19 11 08 – 68
20 07 11 – 67
18 07 13 – 61
16 12 10 – 60
19 10 09 – 67
21 08 09 – 71
—————
19 09 09 – 67 – 9 Season Average

Current form has us winning 71.4% of games

If we carry on at this rate we will
Win 27 games this season
Draw 3 games
Lose 8 games

Based on Current Form
27 3 8 – 84 points

This form would see us finished 3rd most seasons, 2nd in a couple, and we would have won the title last year.

So as long as we don’t have too many bad weekends it should all be fine…

Just call me Statto